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The government’s “cash for clunkers” program had to be shut down within a week because of the overwhelming response it generated. Who knew that Americans would consider $4,000 off a new car, while dumping your old one, a really good deal?
Oddsmakers offer “cash for clunkers” of a different sort. They take teams that were pegged as high-powered machines and lower their prices after their early-season performances suggest they are not worth the original price tag.
This is where bettors can take advantage of the bargain. Case in point: Florida State + 8 against BYU (www.bookmaker.com) appears to provide at least five points of value based on this concept.
Well, thus far the Cougars (2-0) have been hot and the Seminoles (1-1), not so much. But this line provides value that can’t be ignored.
Oddsmakers adjust the value on each team as if it were a moving target, combining real results with the anticipated perception that comes with them to arrive at their numbers. Thus, a high-powered BYU team is laying a touchdown-plus at home against an underachieving FSU squad.
However, the power of perception plays huge here. Although the Seminoles have not met expectations, this is their chance to kick-start their season. You have to believe Bobby Bowden has made it clear the jobs of players and staff alike are on the line in the upcoming weeks.
Despite yielding 305 yards passing per game so far, 112th in the nation, you can expect FSU’s defense to be faster than any BYU will see this year.
Moreover, Christian Ponder is the best playmaking quarterback the ‘Noles had had in years, thus their previous “stuck-in-the-mud” offense no longer looms as a major issue.
BYU is the wild card here. The Cougars have a habit of romancing bettors in September, only to break their hearts come October. Sure, they deserve some credit for their upset win over Oklahoma, the injury to Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford notwithstanding.
But history suggests that the first team willing to punch BYU in the face usually scores a knockout. What better candidate than a hungry and desperate FSU squad which, by the way, seems to do some of its best work when the naysayers start chirping.
Last year, BYU was 6-0, including shutout wins over UCLA and Wyoming, before paying a visit to Mountain West rival TCU. The Horned Frogs won 32-7 and it wasn’t nearly that close. BYU quarterback Max Hall was 22-for-42 for 274 yards, with most of the completions coming when the game was well out of hand. His two interceptions helped TCU run away in the first half.
Given a chance at redemption against Utah, Hall went 21-for-41 for 205 yards and five interceptions in the season finale, a 48-24 loss to the Utes. Hall’s numbers suggests he struggles against BYU’s most physical opponents.
This year, FSU is that opponent and the price is right. You have to think, three weeks ago there’s no way you could get the Seminoles for +8 in this spot, unless you played a teaser.
The good news is, there’s time to take advantage on the new price of this “clunker,” but buyer beware … time might be running out.
Best of luck to everyone.
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