NCAAF "Good Better Best" Bets wk6

I have added this post because the data has changed drastically and some guy turned the other post into a Diane Sawyer interview about me anyway. I hope this doesn't break any covers rules.

So, I will post the raw data, then boil it down to the Good,Better, and Best bets according to the experts I use.

Well, the table was too large to print; so, I'll just give you guys the bets.  The data will read "Bet (Average estimated spread in terms of team picked, percentage of experts on this pick)".  I'm giving this data to illustrate how I am classifying the picks - if you'd rather use a different classification system, have at it.  I've noticed the percentage carries more weight than the spread difference.

Most of the time it's:
BEST = 5 pt difference between actual spread and estimated spread AND greater than 90% of the experts on the team.
BETTER = 4 pt difference AND 80%.
GOOD = 4 pt difference OR 78%

BEST:
KY +3 (avg est. spread = KY -6.86, 100% of experts pick KY)
Virginia +5.5 (-0.34, 94%)
Cinci -7.5 (-16.26, 91%)
N. Tx +21.5 (+14.2, 91%)
Nebraska +20 (+14.63, 91%)

BETTER:
Minn +12.5 (+6.48, 89%)
Vandy -2.5 (-10.88, 86%)
Ball St -15.5 (-19.98, 78%)

GOOD:
Akron +1 (-2.44, 83%)
Purdue +19.5 (+16.77, 79%)
Boise St -11 (-15.24, 76%)
WF -2 (-7.20, 71%) * spread moved to WF +1.5 and this pick WON

I have tested this system against previous years and it has done OK, but not great.  However, it has helped me do very well the last 2 weeks in college and pro.  I don't blindly follow these picks, but if I have a lean, this can help me decide to go ahead and bet it.

GL but don't just bet these picks for the hell of it.  I don't want to hear you whining when they have a losing week, and it will happen - everyone has losing weeks.

interesting stuff, thanks for the info.  100% of the "experts" on Ky scares me but gl man

I have south carolina as my best play this weekend

hey guys, don't get me wrong here - these are not "my" picks.  I won't get offended if you think they suck.  I really don't like many of them myself.  But, the guys who made these picks know a lot more than me - so I posted them ( hopefully in the best interest of all of us).  If they win consistently, they may be worth a 1/2 unit or two.  Who knows?  Time will tell.

and, btw - IMHO anyone who has SC as their POW didn't watch KY play last weekend.

i just wanted to update the info since some line-changes have changed the picks a little


BEST:
cinci -7
Virgina +7
minn +13
KY +3
Neb +21

BETTER:
Vandy -1
No Tx +21

GOOD:
Okie St +14
UTEP -4
MTSU +3
Akron +2
WF -2

lines may not be exact due my incredible hangover coupled with the head cold I've had since Monday.

BEST:
cinci -7
Virgina +7
minn +13
KY +3
Neb +21

BETTER:
Vandy -1
No Tx +21

GOOD:
Okie St +14
UTEP -4
MTSU +3
Akron +2
WF -2

the first week (wk5) I just tracked the BEST bets.  Here are the records after two weeks:

BEST 8-2
BETTER 0-2
GOOD 2-3

if you were to bet these accordingly (I'd say 2 units, 1 unit and .5  units), then you'd be here:

BEST +16 - 4.4 = + 11.6
BETTER +0 - 2.2 = - 2.2
GOOD +1 - 1.65 = - .65
-------------------------------------
Total +17 - 8.25 = + 8.75