i don't get to see any money-lines until Tuesday or Wednesday, so don't know yet... also i usually don't look at ML plays until i have solidified the rest of my card...
however, i will tell you there is a certain team from Houston that i like as a possible ML play...
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i don't get to see any money-lines until Tuesday or Wednesday, so don't know yet... also i usually don't look at ML plays until i have solidified the rest of my card...
however, i will tell you there is a certain team from Houston that i like as a possible ML play...
i am pretty sure i will also bet Ok St, but i have to think this line will drop...
i always say people over-rate revenge as a factor, and they do... most of the time revenge is a total non-issue from a handicapping sense (see Fla-Tenn for recent data)...
but not in this game... revenge is an issue... for one, Ok St never saw Troy coming... in a sense, OSU was the guinnea pig for a Troy team very few people saw coming... prior to the OSU smackdown, that is... after that, teams like Georgia and Florida knew to take them seriously... Georgia still got a scare... this year, of course, teams know about Troy...
a team that especially knows about Troy? Oklahoma St... Troy sent their season into a minor tailspin, leading to the infamous press-conference ("talk to me! i'm a man! i'm 40!") blowup by HC Mike Gundy...
OSU has been waiting a year to get the tast of that loss out of their mouths, they've had an extra week to prepare for a team they were totally unprepared for last year, and they are one of the under the radar teams in CFB right now... very potent, and a just outside of the top 10 team... their D is very suspect, but i expect they will at least have a few adjustments for a Troy offense that is not quite as potent as last year...
still looking to get the line under 17, though...
any feedback on this game or other picks?
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i am pretty sure i will also bet Ok St, but i have to think this line will drop...
i always say people over-rate revenge as a factor, and they do... most of the time revenge is a total non-issue from a handicapping sense (see Fla-Tenn for recent data)...
but not in this game... revenge is an issue... for one, Ok St never saw Troy coming... in a sense, OSU was the guinnea pig for a Troy team very few people saw coming... prior to the OSU smackdown, that is... after that, teams like Georgia and Florida knew to take them seriously... Georgia still got a scare... this year, of course, teams know about Troy...
a team that especially knows about Troy? Oklahoma St... Troy sent their season into a minor tailspin, leading to the infamous press-conference ("talk to me! i'm a man! i'm 40!") blowup by HC Mike Gundy...
OSU has been waiting a year to get the tast of that loss out of their mouths, they've had an extra week to prepare for a team they were totally unprepared for last year, and they are one of the under the radar teams in CFB right now... very potent, and a just outside of the top 10 team... their D is very suspect, but i expect they will at least have a few adjustments for a Troy offense that is not quite as potent as last year...
for anyone who is just interested in my best bets, LSU and Ball St look like they will definitely qualify... will double up those bets and make it official later in the week, most likely... both of the other games listed (USC and Penn St) also have the potential to become best bets...
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for anyone who is just interested in my best bets, LSU and Ball St look like they will definitely qualify... will double up those bets and make it official later in the week, most likely... both of the other games listed (USC and Penn St) also have the potential to become best bets...
Tracking one of my system plays... have explained it on previous threads, but it should be pretty obvious... i have added Penn St this week, because, well, they've earned it...
Overall top 7: (16-2-1 ATS)
1) USC (2-0)
2) OU (3-0)
3) Fla (3-0)
4) UGA (2-0-1)
5) Missou (2-1)
6) LSU (1-1)
7) Penn St (3-0)
bubble teams: Texas (3-0), Alabama (3-1)
if you include Tex and Bama this system play is 22-2-1 on these teams... i had Oregon included as a bubble team up until they lost Roper... might put them back in the group when he gets back... Ok St is a team that might make their way onto the bubble list, as well... if Wisc can handle Mich in the Big House this weekend (which they should), i will consider them... maybe... probably not...
best system plays from this group for this weekend, in my opinion:
USC (-23.5)
LSU (-24.5)
Penn St (-13.5)
others that i will most likely play in some fashion:
Okla (-17.5)... TCU plays them tough, but its a pretty soft line, esp. off a bye...
Bama (+6.5)... waiting for it to hopefully get to 7?
Fla (-23)... lotta people like Ole Miss... don't know about that...
Texas (-27.5)... yikes! don't see Tx covering this one...
one footnote about this system... the reason it is typically successful has a lot to do with early season success... the books and public tend to catch up about this time of year, so don't expect to see another 22-2-1 type stretch over the next month... might want to pick and choose your spots...
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Tracking one of my system plays... have explained it on previous threads, but it should be pretty obvious... i have added Penn St this week, because, well, they've earned it...
Overall top 7: (16-2-1 ATS)
1) USC (2-0)
2) OU (3-0)
3) Fla (3-0)
4) UGA (2-0-1)
5) Missou (2-1)
6) LSU (1-1)
7) Penn St (3-0)
bubble teams: Texas (3-0), Alabama (3-1)
if you include Tex and Bama this system play is 22-2-1 on these teams... i had Oregon included as a bubble team up until they lost Roper... might put them back in the group when he gets back... Ok St is a team that might make their way onto the bubble list, as well... if Wisc can handle Mich in the Big House this weekend (which they should), i will consider them... maybe... probably not...
best system plays from this group for this weekend, in my opinion:
USC (-23.5)
LSU (-24.5)
Penn St (-13.5)
others that i will most likely play in some fashion:
Okla (-17.5)... TCU plays them tough, but its a pretty soft line, esp. off a bye...
Bama (+6.5)... waiting for it to hopefully get to 7?
Fla (-23)... lotta people like Ole Miss... don't know about that...
Texas (-27.5)... yikes! don't see Tx covering this one...
one footnote about this system... the reason it is typically successful has a lot to do with early season success... the books and public tend to catch up about this time of year, so don't expect to see another 22-2-1 type stretch over the next month... might want to pick and choose your spots...
might be possible to wait on that line and get it down to 24 or 23.5 without the hook... but equally good chance the line will move up over 25, which is a key number...
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sorry... typod my LSU bet... should be:
*LSU (-24)
might be possible to wait on that line and get it down to 24 or 23.5 without the hook... but equally good chance the line will move up over 25, which is a key number...
shep, just wanna pick ur brain, i think ball state is highly undervalued, rode them to 2 wins ats this season. How easy of a cover do you see usc on the road at oregon st? and whats ur thoughts of the other thurs game, tulane is it? havent gone in depth yet, its still sunday. thanks
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shep, just wanna pick ur brain, i think ball state is highly undervalued, rode them to 2 wins ats this season. How easy of a cover do you see usc on the road at oregon st? and whats ur thoughts of the other thurs game, tulane is it? havent gone in depth yet, its still sunday. thanks
thanks nostradamus for the info on Jarvis - yes, Ball St WR Love is still in critical condition with a serious spine injury - its a very good chance he'll never play again.
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thanks nostradamus for the info on Jarvis - yes, Ball St WR Love is still in critical condition with a serious spine injury - its a very good chance he'll never play again.
i still have to think about whether or not to make the Ball St play a best bet... still most likely will, since Ball St didn't seem to have trouble after Love got hurt... but there's no way to know what their morale will be like... Kent St is terrible, but Ball St still has to show up...
thanks for the info guys...
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i still have to think about whether or not to make the Ball St play a best bet... still most likely will, since Ball St didn't seem to have trouble after Love got hurt... but there's no way to know what their morale will be like... Kent St is terrible, but Ball St still has to show up...
justwin - yeah looks like Jarvis is questionable on both reports now, was relieved to hear Love regained feeling in arms and legs and hopefully will be ok long term
shep - agree Ball St still has many more weapons Lynch, Lewis and Hill than Kent St, if Cards show up (like you say) they should have a good day running Lewis and mixing in Hill and some young WRs, considering ULL rolled 414 rushing yds on KSU
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justwin - yeah looks like Jarvis is questionable on both reports now, was relieved to hear Love regained feeling in arms and legs and hopefully will be ok long term
shep - agree Ball St still has many more weapons Lynch, Lewis and Hill than Kent St, if Cards show up (like you say) they should have a good day running Lewis and mixing in Hill and some young WRs, considering ULL rolled 414 rushing yds on KSU
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