Breakdown of Georgia for the 2008 season

Ok i have been following UGA heavily this offseason as i do every offseason.  I will give my analysis on the team and some games i think we can get some value in betting them.

1. Matt Stafford's has all the ability in the world, prob a top 5 draft pick if he continues to improve this year.  From what I have seen of him the past 2 years i think he has been good, not great.  He has improved every year by leaps and bounds and the thing they were working on him with this off season was his Accuracy 1st and foremost.  His 55% comp percentage is decent but i am looking for him to be above 60% this year and i think with all the effort they have made to make him more accurate it should help him alot.  The fact he has a lot more talent at the WR position this year should help his comp % alot this year.
2.The obvious running back is Knowshon Moreno, yes he is a beast. I worry about him when they are playing against teams who are good against the run.  He struggled against GA tech and Tenn last year averaging 2.6 and 2.3 yards a carry. The good news is if he does have trouble against the good rushing defenses there is a ton of depth at this position.  Georgia's top 3 could probably start on any team in the SEC right now. Caleb King is prob going to be 2nd on the depth chart and Richard Sameul 3rd.  Both were very highly recruited freshmen, Richard Samuel was a 5 start recruit last year and Caleb king was in the top 10 of running backs the year before. This position is the least of my concern and during spring training Samuel and King have excelled.  Moreno has been wearing a green jersey(no contact) the past couple of weeks, but he will be playing week 1 no doubt.
3. Wide reciever is looking a lot better this year then i can remember in the past 4 or 5 years. Massoqui and Harris are the vets who will prob get the start, but make no mistake the highly touted true freshman Aj Green will be seeing the field alot. He broke all kind of records in South carolina in high school and he was in the top 3 WR's coming out of high school last year. 6'4" 190pounds and extremely talented. Taverres King will prob see alot of playing time to, he is also a true freshman who has excelled in spring training.
4. Offensive line- Prob the only area of the team with question marks.  Im not sure you can even say they are question marks because the team has alot of quality depth.  The starting LT Sturdivant is out for the season and that is a big loss, he was very good last season as a freshman.  3 sophmores, 1 junior and 1 freshman are set to start for the line.  Alot of the sophmores got heavy playing time last year and had very good success.  Tripp, Vance, Glenn, Davis and the other Davis are set to be the starters. Clint Boling has a 1 game suspension but when he comes back it will provide a lot of depth.  Alot of ESPN reporters make the loss of the starting LT out to be alot worse than it is.  The quality of the lineman from the top of the depth chart to the bottom is pretty close.

Defense:
1. Defensive line- 2 sure NFL prospects in Jeff Owns and Geno Atkins.  Both are probably going to be 1st rounders.  Geno atkins ran a 4.6 40 the other day. Keep in mind he is 290 pounds and he ran a 4.6 40 yard dash, that is incredible.  UGA led the sec with 42 sacks last year and i think this number is going to go up this year. Irvin and Weston provide experienced depth who are both very good. Battle and Lomax are prob. going to be the starters at defensive end and the guys behind them are good enough to be starters. UGA prob has one of the best defensive lines in all of college football.
2. Linebackers- Ellerbe leads the charge in this group.  Considered to be 1 of the best linebackers in the SEC and the entire country. Rennie Curan is a sophmore who got alot of playing time last year and has showed alot of potential.  Akeem Dent set to be the other starter. Ellerbe is the vet of the group, dent and curan are both sophmores and i would say Curan is going to be something special.The depth at this position is good, the quality has more of a drop off then most of the other positions.Dewberry is a quality back up and he will be suspended ffor the 1st 2 games.  Beyond him there is potential but nothing proven.
3. Defensive backs-Asher Allen and Prince miller lead this group. Both are very talented and i would say both are NFL prospects for sure.  Quentin banks who is a backup safety is out for the first 4 games provided alot of depth and that will be missed.  If there is a injury with the safeties in the 1st 4 games i would be a little concerned with the back ups. Brandon Boykin is set to be the nickel back, a true fresman, and he has played well in the spring training so far. The depth at corner is a concern for me. There is a couple of vets who prob have less talent and a lot of young guys with talent but not much experience.

14th ranked defense last year
16th against the run
36th against the pass

74th ranked offense
37th rushing attack
83rd passing

I expect the offense to be in the top 30 and the defense to be in the 15 again this year.  The passing offense should be alot better this year with the new WR's coming in and Stafford improving every year.  I think the coaches will be utilizing play action a hole lot more this year with everyone scared of Moreno and i expect the passing offense to improve alot.

Schedule:
GA southern
Central Mich.
@ South carolina - UGA by 10
@ AZ state -UGA by 17
Alabama
Tenn
Vandy
@ LSU- UGA by 3
Florida (jackson ville)- UGA by 3
@ Kentucky
@ Auburn-UGA by 7
Georgia Tech
'
The games i have highlighted are the games i think there will be value in.  Based on peoples perception of those teams i think the lines will be favorable for UGA.  If UGA is not favored in the Florida game i will be on that one for sure.  Florida is a team i think that is over rated extremely this year.  Most people say the defense is going to be alot better simply because "they have another year under there belt". Cornelius Ingram is out for the year for FL along with starting Strong safety Munroe, his backup and the 3rd stringer are all out for the season.  The 98th passing defense will certainly be hurting from that.  Florida's offense will be very good, but defensively i think they are not championship caliber and i really like UGA in that game.

AZ st is another game were i think public perception of that team will give a favorable line for UGA. AZ st's offensive line is going to be manhandled by UGA's front 7.  If uga is favored by less than 17 i will be on this one big.

The rest i will not give my thoughts on but i feel they have potential of having favorable lines for UGA. Tenn is a game i may be going the other way with. I see the TENN game to have a line that favors UGA a little to strong and will probably be on the otherside.  TENN always play UGA tough and i expect the game to be within 7.

IMO, No chance Stafford is a top 5 pick.  He reminds me of Morreli.  Everyone said he was going to be a top pick and he didn't even get drafted.  The WRs should be better but Georgia WRs always seem to drop a lot of passes.  The rest of the team is loaded.  I wouldn't worry about the O line.  They will be OK.  With the schedule as tough as it is, Georgia will need Stafford to be really good to win 10+ games.  With that running game and defense, they will steamroll a lot of the weaker teams.

I will have to disagree with you on Stafford being a top 5 pick.  He may not be if he was in the draft today, but by the end of the year if he improves his accuracy to around 60% comp percentage he will be a sure bet at a top 5 pick.  He has started every year since his freshman year, he plays in a pro style offense and he has the height, arm strength and is working on the accuracy.  I will make a side bet with you right now he will be a top 5 pick whenever he comes out.  I think he will not leave for the NFL early, but when he does i promise you he will be a top 5 pick.  Mel Kiper says he is the best nfl prospect @ the QB position in the hole NCAA right now.  I disagree with that, but if he improves accuracy he will be.

WR's do drop a lot of passes (which hurts Staffords accuracy) but the  new talent coming in should help alot.  AJ green was probably the 2nd best WR coming out last year behind Julio Jones.  AJ green will have a impact on the team this year and he will see the field sooner rather than later.

I can see UGA losing 1 game this season and i think they will be in the SEC championship game playing LSU.

 

Have you lost your mind?  It will be Ga -4 at most, ASU is damn good.  Man Ga was only favored by 3.5 at Ga Tech, 7 at Vandy, at 1 at Tenn last year, and ASU is a lot better than all those teams were.  Sure Ga is top 10 but you are way over-rating what those spreads will be.

I didnt say the spread would be -17..I said if they are favored by less than that i will be on them.  I think ASU is possibly the most over rated team this year.  UGA's D LINE is going to have a field day vs them and it will resemble something like the Hawaii game. If they lost to Texas 52-34 and USC 44-24..Surely UGA can beat em by 17

Im sure the spread will not be -17..but i will be on UGA in this game for sure,. AZ st prob had the 2nd easiest schedule last year..i rate it slightly hire than Hawaii's

Well i take that back, the 1st half of the schedule was a cake walk

  No Way My Friend  This Will Be a Huge Test For Them Bulldogs  ASU Has Been Getting ready For This Game..  Very Close Game.. ASU Can Beat them.. I not saying that they will... But 17 points Not A chance

Great writeup, dyounger. 

With that said, though, I gotta agree with tsw on the ASU line.  No way Georgia beats ASU by 17+... especially on the road.  Mark Richt's team's have always won on the road, by and large, but they don't usually blow the other team out.  And Dennis Erickson does have momentum at ASU.  They were the co-Pac-10 champions last year, and the Pac-10 is not a patsy conference. 

The 3 game I'm most worried about for UGA this year are:

• ASU - The unfamiliar environment, 100+ degree heat, and the fact that we will probably be universally picked to beat them.  Overconfidence can kill you.
• Alabama - The week after a long, tough road trip to Arizona, and Georgia typically underperforms a lot more at home than on the road under Mark Richt.  This is a classic, classic setup for an upset.  If I had to pick just 1 loss all year for Georgia, this would be it.
• Florida - I'm not really worried about the whole "stomp-gate" thing, but Georgia will have just played LSU in Death Valley the week before.  Granted, it probably won't be a night game (3:30 CBS, already announced), but LSU and Florida back-to-back is a killer.

Overall, I'm usually relatively critical of Georgia's chances in the preseason.  This is the first year in a while, though, that I've been cautiously optimistic.  I'm not sure I like being preseason #1, but we definitely have the tools to compete for the national championship.  We'll just have to see how it works out. 

Sorry if I disagree with you, but Morrelli and Stafford were/are can't miss NFL prospects becuase of height, arm strength, NFL system, etc, and they are always going to be a lot better than they were the year before.  Basically, a ton of excuses, no production, and in Morreli's case undrafted.

I said the rest of the team was loaded and they won't need a passing game to win 8 games.  The line on the ASU game is 4.5 and Ithink UGA wins that game by 20.

Thorpe - I agree 100% UGA by 17 atleast in the AZ st game, UGA plays very good on the road

Bigiron-  Agree to disagree, ASU is very overrated, UGA will win comfortably.  I also dont like being preseason #1, we play better when expectations are not so high

BoomBoom- ASU better prepare all year for this game because they are severely over matched.  Yes they have a good coach, but UGA has a good coach with alot more talent on his team.  UGA on the road =

Boom- I know what your saying, i dont think the line is going to be -17, but i personally think UGA is going to win by 17. 

Bigiron-I agree with the Bama and Florida games being potential losses.  The ones that worry me more than that are Auburn, LSU, TENN. I feel the FL game is def. no walk in the park, but i think we get the job done.  Auburn and Tenn always give us a run for our money.  @LSU should be very tough with a very good defense.  If we can somehow navigate the schedule with 2 losses i think we can make the NC.  Cant ever count out ol' spurrier either, that bastard

Double up- Agree with that AZ st o line doesnt stand a chance against the no.1 pass rush in the SEC.  Its going to be like dejavu vs hawaii.

  I have Done a little Homework on that O line for ASU.. ( Caused it sucked out loud) Erickson has them boys in shape this year and More atheltic.. Made all of them go on a diet, and will be much quicker.

 

Boom- We will see

Better hire Jonathan Ogden and Orlando Pace to suit up when they play UGA

I don't disagree that georgia will win.. Just don't see a Cake walk.

Wow, I guess we are agreeing to disagree. 

I think we're going to smack Tennessee, because we have an off-week the week before, and they absolutely humiliated us last year. Auburn and LSU are definitely two difficult places to play, too, but the LSU game probably won't be a night game (already announced as 3:30 for CBS, subject to change of course), and history has been in favor of the visitors for the Georgia Auburn rivalry (last year and 2004 notwithstanding).

Hey, I hope we're both wrong, and the Dawgs just win them all and remove all doubt. 

 

Have you actually watched Stafford's progression?

 

Yes, when he was 18 he threw a lot of INTs.  People seem to think he is still in his freshman year.  He was pretty thrown uner the bus his first year.

 

UGA lost to South Carolina last year.  Stafford hit 3 WRs in the end zone in the hands or in the chest right on the numbers.  If the WRs catch anyone of those 3 passes, UGA wins the game.  What more can Stafford do than make those throws?

 

In the Alabama game, he makes the throw and the WR makes the catch so UGA wins the game in OT.

 

In the Vandy game, the WRs were dropping everything and Stafford was a little off in the first half.  On the final drive to win the game, Stafford made the throws, the WRs made the catches, and the team moved the ball quickly to get in position for the win.

 

He is 7-1 vs. ranked opponents.  He has made throws in the clutch time.

 

Stafford has had bad OLs and inconsistent WRs to deal with so far.  He had a rough year as an 18 year-old with a horrible Ol and WRs that couldn't catch a cold.  He progresed a great deal last season.  He is an unselfish QB in a run first offense, so he will not have the big stats of other QBs that look so good against no ones and then their team finishes 9-4.

 

Morreli sucked from beginning to end.  It is a terrible comparion.