Posted:
#1
3* 7-0, +21.00
2* 8-4, +7.20
1* 22-15, +7.78
Year: 37-19, +35.98
October 12, 2007
Hawaii at San Jose State
Selection: San Jose State +17.5
I’ll start off this week playing a home pup on national television. This is a San Jose State team that has battled back to 3-3, after losing their first three ballgames to the likes of Stanford, Kansas State, and Arizona State, all on the road. This is also a team that played extremely well at home last year (only loss was to Boise by 3). This is also the same offense that led them to a bowl game this year.
I mentioned a few weeks back that Yonus Davis was a 50/50 chance to return to the Utah State game. He did not return then, but he returned last week in a smaller role. They didn’t have to use him much, as their backup RB was able to efficiently run the ball. In essence, they could have been saving him for this week. Davis was a 1000 yard rusher last year, and while his numbers didn’t show much last week (2 carries), he’ll be a much bigger part of their offense this week one would think. Colt Brennan is listed day-to-day, and I’m making the play figuring him to be in the lineup. SJST returned an all-american CB last year (Lowery), along with the WAC’s leading tackler (Castelo), and a minimum of 8 people who had played on the defensive line w/ plenty of experience. In my opinion, they have the best corner’s in the conference, which is what a team needs to compete with Hawaii.
Utah State (136), Idaho (142), Charleston Southern (204), UNLV (97), Louisiana Tech (118), and Northern Colorado (207), lead to a #170 strength of schedule ranking for Hawaii. By comparison, SJST comes in with a #66 strength of schedule ranking, and a #98 ranking overall. As for offense/defense, from what I’ve seen of Hawaii’s defensive pressure, they don’t like to attack as much as they used to. That advantage, lies w/ SJST w/ a 1000 yard rusher in the backfield, and a QB who led this team to a 9-4 record last year.
By the end of the year, I have SJST finishing top 75 ball club, meaning this will be Hawaii’s toughest meeting to date, and probably the toughest until late November when they get Boise at home. As for a tough road spot, this is about as tough as they get. After playing a late game Saturday night, they have one day less to travel, an extreme time difference, and a long flight.
There is just one weird angle here, that I’d been looking over for a few weeks, but I’d knew I’d be playing SJST just for the sole purpose of a former coach vs. his old team and with what had happened last year. With a 34-17 lead last year, Hawaii didn’t put on the brakes. They proceeded to throw three touchdowns in the 4th quarter of the ballgame last year, to make it a blow out. You think Coach Dick Tomey don’t remember that? The same Dick Tomey that led Hawaii to top 20 rankings. The same Dick Tomey that Coach June Jones passed last year on the all-time wins list at Hawaii. The same Dick Tomey that has coached with at least 4 coaches on the University of Hawaii coaching staff. And the same Dick Tomey who would like nothing more than to end Hawaii’s current six game win streak and chance at a bowl game. Just too many factors here to keep me off San Jose in this spot
2* San Jose State +17.5
Gl…
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