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#1
As I said, Last week Navy rushed for 521 yards versus Ball State and yet they still ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard as they lost by 3 to the Cardinals! Needless to say someone is going to have to pay for that if they're in the wrong place at the wrong time and that someone is Duke. The Blue Devils finally ended a 22 game winless streak last week but the win certainly wasn't all that impressive. Duke won by 6 at Northwestern but the Wildcats had 25 first downs to just 15 for the Blue Devils. Overall, Duke was outgained by nearly 200 yards but a few Wildcats miscues ended up keying the win for the Blue Devils. I don't expect Navy to be so gratiutous this week as they lost last week's game on turnovers with a couple of fumbles playing a role in the loss.
Navy was favored by a TD and lost last week while the Blue Devils were dogged by more than two TDs and won outright last week. Now this week I have Navy laying even more points and Duke is once again a double digit dog. Historically, and with other specifics of this situation met, the favorite has performed well in these instances. That said, I fully expect a blowout for the Midshipmen here. Duke allowed over 500 yards of offense to Northwestern last week but miraculously won. Of course, facing Navy the Blue Devils know they basically can just focus on the ground attack. However, that still doesn't help them. When you face an option attack like Navy you struggle even when you know nearly every play is going to be some type of running play. Last season the Midshipmen outgained Duke by over 300 yards on the ground.
Although I´m never big on ATS trends it is worth noting that the Midshipmen have won and covered three straight in this series. In fact, the last eleven games in this series have seen the team that wins the game also end up being the team that grabs the cash. That said, I certainly don't see Navy losing this game and with a potential to run Duke right out of the stadium they should be the 12th straight SU winner to also be the ATS winner in this series!
Note that Navy's junior QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is listed as probable for this game. He is the team's top rusher and spearheads the option attack! Keep in mind Duke's defense was rebuilding for this season as they had just five returning starters. That's bad news when you know that many of last season's top defensive players from a winless team are now gone! This is also Duke's third straight road game. It is simply a very tough spot and the Midshipmen should roll over the defenseless Blue Devils here. The fact that the line is still under 2 TD's as of Friday afternoon is an added incentive here as hopefully this line stays at 14 or below. Either way, I´m in on this one! Look for the Midshipmen to roll by 20+.
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