12:30 to 1:00 Games...
FIRST let me say that line movement and lineups may change a lot and its early so it is hard to read the line movements... I will update within a half hour of game time.
SD +124 @ Cinci -134 (72.3%) o/u 9
Weather - 73 degrees with 12mph winds blowing mostly left to right, but going a little bit toward the outfield... not much but at Great American, there can certainly be some bombs in this game...**** I wrote on the later games and re-checked the weather, wind is blowing more toward the fences now.
Public %/Line Movement - Everyone is on cincinnati, they are slight-moderate favs but getting almost 3 out of 4 bets... its early so there isn't much to read but there has only been line movement at one book where Cinci went from 135 to 140... the Over is being pounded but it is interesting that at the Hilton the UNDER opened at even, moved to +105, and then from 10:34 to 10:36 it took a twenty cent jump to UNDER -115!
Notes - Covers experts are 5-1 in favor of the UNDER. Maddux vs Arroyo, two pitchers I know so they must be good... maybe not, ERA's of 4.2 and 5.7. Arroyo has been better in his last 3, and his numbers are probably a bit inflated because he plays in such a hitters park... can't say the same for Maddux at PetCo. I'm leaning Reds and Under, at this point neither would be a play... line movements and lineups could change this... ***Both pitchers are righties and the win favors Lefty batters - can someone tell me which of these teams has better LH sluggers?
Also at 12:30 its...
Oakland +170 @ Tampa -180 (68.6%) o/u 7.5
Smith L (3.79) vs Shields R (3.69)
Public %/Line Movement - 68% isn't that high for a -180 team, especially one that has really dominated at home... because of some funny line movement I played Oakland yesterday despite their weak pitcher and they cashed at +150. Some books opened Shields at -200, many at -185... no line movement yet, again this will need to be updated later... LVSC opened the total at 8 over +110, but it dropped right back into place at 7.5 with juice on the over... **scoresandodds.com shows the line going from -200 to 170 and up to the low 180's...
Notes - Tampa is on a 3-9 slide, Oakland loves going UNDER on the road, but when these teams face eachother they typically go OVER. A's hit better vs the Righties, Rays hit worse against the Lefties... both teams have less power against the pitching side they will be facing.
Minnesota +147 vs NY Yankees -155 (66.3%) o/u 9
Perkins L (3.84) vs Mussina R (3.49)
Weather - 60% chance of rain, wind blowing FROM right field over the 3B line at 11mph... will help to keep homers away from the short porch.
Public %/Line Movement - Pretty balanced %... I still don't know how to calculate it but I'd like to know exactly what % a -155 fav should ahve to be balanced... 66% seems pretty close, maybe even a little bit under, but $$$$ is coming in on the Yankees, moving from -145 to -155 and as high as -165 in places. Most places opened the total at 9.5 which has gone down to 9 almost everywhere, the under 9 is even getting juice at -115 or -120 so the under is being pounded.
Notes - Pitchers' ERAs of 3.8 and 3.5 are much better in the last 3 starts at 2.29 and 1.5 (Perkins then Mussina).
LEANS - I'm liking the Yankees in this one, not sure if its worth the juice, so I may just play the other lean which is the UNDER 9. 2 good pitchers who are hot and confident right now, batters hitting into the wind and a chance of rain.
So thats it for now - ***Rememer, this thread is just to get my original leans in order, I know nothing without INPUT from YOU. I can read the #s but I don't know the game so with your input and my unbiased looks I think we can keep profiting. Thanks for any help lets have a good day
More UNDER bait
I'm all over the REDS. Those lefty sluggers will face a righty and when they pull the ball the wind will be carrying the ball along with it.
yanks undie 1st 5
I cant believe I did, but I actually checked it... and its bad news for the buccos lol. He sucks on his best days anyway... Im actually more concerned about the Stros getting runs than the bucs though... Bucs will score.
Hot Forum Topics
