Posted:
#1
YTD: 182-225-6 (-34.26 units)
Sides: 132-148 (-19.33 units)
Run Line: 11-16 (-4.07 units)
Totals: 37-44-6 (-11.28 units)
Totals (First 5): 0-2-0 (-2.4 units)
Parlays: 3-14 (+1.173 units)
+6.8 units last 3 days
*Originally liked Indians and Angels, but the line is way too inflated. If it drops to -125 I will lock it in.
Royals +167 (1 unit)
Super inflated line here. The Royals are red hot, winning 8 of their last 9 games. Mendoza is a hit or miss kind of pitcher, but I trust in his ability to go 5-6 innings allowing 3 runs to turn it to one of the MLB's best bullpens. Matt Moore has gotten shellacked in his last two starts as he fell back to earth. He's a good pitcher but -177 is hilarious of a line. Oh yea, the Royals also mash lefties, to the tune of .277 average and 5.08 runs per game. This might be my favourite play tomorrow.
Giants +126 (1 unit)
The Braves are coming off a sluggish Western road-trip where they went 2-5. Bumgarner is a legit ace and anytime I'm getting him at plus money like this I'll play it. Medlen's FIP is 4.01 and xFIP is 4.26, compared to his 2.87 ERA. The Giants bats are also red hot and the Braves bats are cold. Give me the dog in this one.
Brewers +143 (1 unit)
The Brewers are probably the streakiest team in the league and right now they're on, winning 5 of their last 6. The Reds are coming off a 14 inning marathon at Wrigley while the Brewers had an off day. Kyle Lohse has had some recent success at Great American and this is some good value.
Tigers/Twins UNDER 9 (1 unit)
Rick Porcello is rolling and both these teams have cold offenses. 9 is a high number at Target Field and I expect this to be a lower scoring game.
Padres -119 (1 unit)
Trevor Cahill has been rocked in his last couple starts and Eric Stults has been on fire. The D-Backs struggle against lefties and the Padres are playing some solid baseball, especially at home.
Parlay:
Brewers +143, Royals +167, Giants +126
0.5 unit to win 6.8 units
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