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Is baseball the hardest sport to cap????

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I have been betting MLB for the past 2 season only. This is my 2nd season. I would admit I lack the knowledge from other gurus here and lack the experience. I would just like to know your thoughts and methods on picking sides. 

What I look at first is pitching, not necessarily ERA based but complete stats whip etc., last 10 games performance, performance against opposing team, record home and away etc.

After this I check the past 10 games of the team based on performance and how they fare at the current ballpark etc. 

Value on the moneyline is not so much a factor as here in my country bookies usually post runline bets like lets say a team with a -130 constitutes to a -1 on the runline. There are moneyline bets but I tend to go after the runline since pay is bigger than the money line. 

But this season has been a struggling season for me. For one good pitchers have regressed already to the point that there are good pitchers who have sucked bad. I know and understand that these athletes do have their nights off as in the NBA. But lately I notice that in every 3-4 good games a pitcher pitches there would be a game where he blows. Then there are times like Bonderman recently where he blew his first game and looked totally bad to pitching great in his second game and against the NYY at that. Then to pitchers being bad last year to being really good this year (pj walters, liriano etc). I know athletes do improve but can it be as drastic as that of the aforementioned players?

Also do you guys look at the moneyline values of games as same as we look at in the NBA wherein an unusual line for a dog or too good to be true type of line would constitute a red flag in terms of fading the favorite? 

I would like to hear from you guys and learn from others here. I plan on doing this as my NBA offseason thing. And please no comments wherein stop betting coz I will just lose my money etc. The money I use for gambling is my extra money that I do not use for emergency funds, bills etc, it is mainly my money I earned from the NBA and is used mainly for gambling and extra funds to use for wants in life. 


 
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Posted: #2
Additionally, I think this season has been very unpredictable, I can cite the regression of the SF giants starting lineup as one big example, Gio's struggles etc.
 
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Posted: #3

When betting on sports,you're saying you can predict the future actions of multiple athletes.

Can you really predict the future ???? Or are you looking for the best possible guess ????

There is no 100% cappers in the world
 
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Posted: #4
By far the hardest game to win at on a consistent basis. Tread lightly and wait till football/basketball.

Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

When betting on sports,you're saying you can predict the future actions of multiple athletes.

Can you really predict the future ???? Or are you looking for the best possible guess ????


I know the future is unpredictable, all I am saying is the performance of pitchers have been like complete opposites during their off night. I know you cannot tell when an athlete would have his off night but lately its been like night and day. how can you veer away from those nights? to avoid losing and give yourself a best chance to win. 

like in the NBA, the performance of a certain player can hinge on a lot like defense he is facing, rest he have, recent slump or hot streak, traditional stats, injuries and lastly the so called "off night" but in the NBA team sport is more evident since when a key player has an off night, you still have a chance to win, unlike in MLB when a pitcher is on his off night, 80% chance you would lose. 

And how can you say for example on top of my mind, Harang of the Mariners, got lit up in his prev game and lasted only 2.1 inn and then throw 2 hit shutout the next. 
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by lbj_19:


I know the future is unpredictable, all I am saying is the performance of pitchers have been like complete opposites during their off night. I know you cannot tell when an athlete would have his off night but lately its been like night and day. how can you veer away from those nights? to avoid losing and give yourself a best chance to win. 

like in the NBA, the performance of a certain player can hinge on a lot like defense he is facing, rest he have, recent slump or hot streak, traditional stats, injuries and lastly the so called "off night" but in the NBA team sport is more evident since when a key player has an off night, you still have a chance to win, unlike in MLB when a pitcher is on his off night, 80% chance you would lose. 

And how can you say for example on top of my mind, Harang of the Mariners, got lit up in his prev game and lasted only 2.1 inn and then throw 2 hit shutout the next. 

These are professional athletes and human beings

There is no 100% cappers in the world
 
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Posted: #7
NBA is the hardest to cap IMO not including sports like hockey and MMA which i dont have much knowledge on.
 
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Posted: #8
You mean you didn't know Dillon Gee, Edinson Volquez, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeremy Bonderman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Straily, Alfredo Figaro, and Alfredo Aceves were all going to dominate on the same day?

You didn't know that Verlander would pitch a gem and then have it all taken away at the last minute?  You didn't know that a game between two solid pitchers like Corbin and Ryu would turn into a run fest?

Yeah, the sport is a nightmare.
 
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Posted: #9
Wait for Value never bet a favorite i use to follow this rule but got sidetracked trying to reach back my old form . Its not easy 
 
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Posted: #10
on a game to game basis i think its the toughest...if you use all the stats you are saying to use to cap games you must go off big sample sizes for them to be relevant.  Most of the consistently best mlb cappers are value players with a set system they dont stray from, flat bet, and have very good patience and money management
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

You mean you didn't know Dillon Gee, Edinson Volquez, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeremy Bonderman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Straily, Alfredo Figaro, and Alfredo Aceves were all going to dominate on the same day?

You didn't know that Verlander would pitch a gem and then have it all taken away at the last minute?  You didn't know that a game between two solid pitchers like Corbin and Ryu would turn into a run fest?

Yeah, the sport is a nightmare.

 
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Posted: #12
MLB is by far my best.   

Tennis is by far my worst and I know the most about it...hardest sport.  I've only seen 1 person ever be profitable betting tennis in my 6 years here.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

You mean you didn't know Dillon Gee, Edinson Volquez, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeremy Bonderman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Straily, Alfredo Figaro, and Alfredo Aceves were all going to dominate on the same day?

You didn't know that Verlander would pitch a gem and then have it all taken away at the last minute?  You didn't know that a game between two solid pitchers like Corbin and Ryu would turn into a run fest?

Yeah, the sport is a nightmare.

um... is this a sarcastic response? only looking for good vibes here. but in reference this is indeed what I mean. see the players you just mentioned that dominated, they usually sucks. All im pointing at is how drastic can their performance change from game to game. 

and how do you guys choose which side to pick with the unpredictability like this? 

atleast in the NBA ie o/u or totals is easier to cap, teams play a certain style or system. Like the Sac Kings, young players with a free wheeling coach that allows his players to just run and gun which would relate to an over on the total more times than not and especially at home, the over is indeed a great bet all season long
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:

MLB is by far my best.   

Tennis is by far my worst and I know the most about it...hardest sport.  I've only seen 1 person ever be profitable betting tennis in my 6 years here.

How do you pick?
 
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Posted: #15
Oh man!! Honestly there's days where I'm on fire!! Then some bullpen will come in and just send me sinking! It's hard but I go with trends and just a guy feeling and my account last time I checked I've put in 5500 and have taken out 18something so far! But it's a crap shoot some nights! Like the cards game tonight! It's the fucking mets!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by lbj_19:


um... is this a sarcastic response? only looking for good vibes here. but in reference this is indeed what I mean. see the players you just mentioned that dominated, they usually sucks. All im pointing at is how drastic can their performance change from game to game. 

and how do you guys choose which side to pick with the unpredictability like this? 

atleast in the NBA ie o/u or totals is easier to cap, teams play a certain style or system. Like the Sac Kings, young players with a free wheeling coach that allows his players to just run and gun which would relate to an over on the total more times than not and especially at home, the over is indeed a great bet all season long

definitely sarcastic.  there are more games, more variables.  in the nba and nhl you dont have to worry about the weather.  umps play a huge role, more so in other sports other than nba.  you have to worry about lineups always changing.  then you have to worry about closers blowing games at the end.  all sports have their variables, i just find that the mlb has more.  and more games.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:


definitely sarcastic.  there are more games, more variables.  in the nba and nhl you dont have to worry about the weather.  umps play a huge role, more so in other sports other than nba.  you have to worry about lineups always changing.  then you have to worry about closers blowing games at the end.  all sports have their variables, i just find that the mlb has more.  and more games.

yeah I know it has more variables but how can such a bad pitcher like Gee at the start of the season be really bad then suddenly pitch like a cy young the past 3 games? do you think a player of his caliber can carry a performance like this through the rest of the season
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:


definitely sarcastic.  there are more games, more variables.  in the nba and nhl you dont have to worry about the weather.  umps play a huge role, more so in other sports other than nba.  you have to worry about lineups always changing.  then you have to worry about closers blowing games at the end.  all sports have their variables, i just find that the mlb has more.  and more games.

as with lineup change, one team that I see value on and do well when they rest their day to day starters is ATL. If you notice their past games with Gattis and the others in for the usual starters their record is really good.
 
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Posted: #19
I think NBA is absolutely the hardest because the win or loss of a game can be decided by the success of just one player.  There is one player in the NBA right now that can literally decide for himself when his team wins or loses, and for the most part by how much.  No on on earth can say if they had that much power they wouldn't use it from time to time to fatten their wallet.  MLB on the other hand is less like that.  When a pitcher has a bad game it doesn't mean that team loses....just puts them behind.  

The thing I love about MLB is there is a rhythm to it.  It's like a dance you can follow and groove too.  NFL is not like that as one game does not blend to the next.  The same team will kill one week looking like  the superbowl obvious champs and then look like a high school team the next.   

When you have a bad betting Sunday at NFL it eats away at you and you look for solutions the next week.  With MLB you appreciate that you are going to have bad days so they are easier to bounce back from.  There is value in a bad day of MLB betting, as it usually will lead to more insight the next, and because today certainly will influence the next you can use that.

But you can't just jump into the MLB once in a while, you have to follow it, get into the dance and feel it.  I know it sounds weird....sorry.

Just my opinions.

Corona:)
 
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Posted: #20

NBA without a doubt

Way too many variables
 
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Posted: #21
Great at nba and football, but can't make consistent money on  baseball,always end up getting screwed as soon as the starting pitcher comes out because then it becomes a crapshoot, think that's my biggest issue with it
 
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Posted: #22
Stop playing Run lines...play the Money Lines and look for value there.
 
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Posted: #23
Baseball is the easiest by far and its not even close.
I know plenty of bookies and they all say the same thing. They make ALL their money in football and basketball. They hope to break even in baseball.
Follow the money and that'll tell you all you need to know.
 
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Posted: #24
NBA is the hardest, then NHL, MLB and NFL.  The NFL is the easiest in my opinion because quite frankly there arent as many fluctuations between performances, mainly because of the number of games they play.  It's easier for athletes to mentally take a night off in the other sports when they have so many games to play over the course of the season.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Luckydan:

By far the hardest game to win at on a consistent basis. Tread lightly and wait till football/basketball.

Good Luck.


100% Solid advice.  I had to give it up for a few years because of how long the season is, I consistently found myself losing week after week.  The only way to win was to quit.

This past week has been the most profitable week in any baseball season I have ever had, but it could change in a heart beat. 

In any case, I am about ready to quit while ahead. Because it IS so rare.

Baseball is extraordinarily difficult to win at...
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