Money Ball 5.04.2013

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

5.03.2013, 3-0-1, +16.14 Units, +94.4% ROI

YTD – 71-78-13, -8.61 Units, -1.18% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Mariners F5 (+112) F5 (+116) (Iwakuma / Dickey)

Cardinals F5 (-122) F5 (-116) (Wainright / Gallardo)

Diamondbacks F5, RL (-.5, +120) FG, RL (-1.5 +150) (Corbin / Richard)

This is what I am playing. I will return shortly with write ups but I think if you are following these are good lines to get and I don’t expect them to improve later.

BOL

Yeah, I think the Cubs suck and Cingrani lays waste to them, but I don't have a lot of faith in the Reds offense either. Game could go under, but check the weather and umpire. You need both at Wrigley.

Mariners F5 (+112) FG (+116) (Iwakuma / Dickey)

False favorite. Neither the Blue Jays starter or offense is in a class with their opposite numbers. Contrary to common public belief the Mariners have both the pitching and sticks in this one.

Cardinals F5 (-122) FG (-116) (Wainright / Gallardo)

The Cardinals may lay waste to the NL Central while the public continues to love the Reds. OK with me, I just want winners and the Cardinals either win or blow it today, but if they are on their game the Brewers are no match for Wainwright and Gallardo is no match for the Cardinals bats.

Diamondbacks F5, RL (-.5, +120) FG, RL (-1.5 +150) (Corbin / Richard)

Corbin versus Richard? Are you kidding me? There is not enough home field advantage in the world to cover that margin, not to mention the offensive advantage. The straight up money line is -115 as I type and that requires a win probability of 53.5%, so to play the run line I need a minimum margin of 55.3%. I have the probability of an Arizona win computed at 67.1%, so there is plenty of margin left to jump on the run line. ‘nuff said.

BOL

Hello Key,

I agree with you on Seattle.

I like the Cubs F5 because they got 2 off of Cingrani the first time seeing him. Samardzija pitched 5 shutout innings against Cin after coming off a bad game against Mil (4 runs/F5). Now he's coming off a bad game against SD (3 runs/F5) at home. This will also be his first home start against the Reds, so I think he will be locked in for this game.

I was also wondering what your thoughts were regarding Oak/NY under 4.5 and Min ML (F5).

The money train is beginning to roll in

Key,

Congrats on the Sea F5.

I've got more love for the Cards than you in 5, as I've taken them on the RL, as I believe that Wainwright shuts them down again and Gallardo gives up a couple.

Any thoughts on the Was/Pit game. Was is batting .196 against lefties and Locke has thrown 13 scoreless innings against SL and Phi. Strasburg has not been dominant as of late and has given up 2 runs in the F5 both times he has faced them. I can get Pit on the RL at -120.

And your thoughts on the Bal/LAA game. Garcia might have great career numbers against LA, but his last game against them in Sep wasn't part of it (5 runs in the F5). Today's lineup for Baltimore has gone 5/20 against Hanson (Jones 2 for 5). I like LAA RL (F5).

I greatly appreciate your input, opinions, and thoughts.