Money Ball 5.01.2013

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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

4.30.2013, 1-2, -4.6 Units, -30.7% ROI

YTD – 62-77-12, -52.14 Units, -7.63% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

First 5 Only Angels-Athletics Over 4.5 (-105) (Cederstrom / Wilson / Milone)

Ladies and gentlemen, what you have here is a fairly neutral umpire calling a game for two extremely average pitchers versus two ridiculously potent offenses. We should have a very warm afternoon with a slight breeze from left to right that slightly favors lefties, but not by any significant margin. For all the complaints the board has about the Angels underachieving offense those guys better reassess their prospects when the Angels face a lefty. In the 5 inning game they are 3-1 so far and knocking out lefties in 5.67 innings with 4.3 earned runs on the board for a very nice 6.8 oera, and the A’s counter that with a 3-2-2 record, posting an average of 3.26 earned runs every 5.29 innings for an oera of 6.1. It is not inconceivable either of these offenses could produce 5 runs by themselves, so we have the possible implosion of either pitcher being enough to put us over the top. With two high scoring evening games behind them already and the Athletics holding a 5-0 season advantage over the Angels, I think both offenses keep the pedal to the metal and keep rolling.

Probably more later but I am not finished with the evening card.  

BOL

Like the play. I believe the A's are 16-2 over(?) their last 18 games.

Rockies F5 (+132) FG (+138) (Nicasio / Beckett)

There is an entirely different dynamic at work with the Rockies offense versus the underachieving righty Beckett than versus the hot young rookie lefty Ryu. The same can be said of the Dodgers swinging at the righty Nicasio rather than the lefty De La Rosa. The Rockies are much better off with this matchup and neither Beckett (team 1-2) or the home field (6-6) is to be feared. In their last 15 versus righty in 5 innings the Dodgers are a fairly impressive 7-4-4, but the Rockies check in at 11-2-2. The oera checks in at 3.2 versus 5.6, so I think the Rockies have a very distinct edge here.   

BOL

Incorrect, they have played 4 unders at home. Hernandez, Scherzer, Peacock, and Chen. My only question is "what is Peacock doing in that group?"