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Posted: #1
Fish +130 and first 5 +135

Reds +115

Indians +132

Seattle +101

2 units each

+17.74 units 62-61




 
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Eventually Harvey will lose ... eventually .... good luck bro .. dont think it happens today either ... you will guess right one day 
 
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Teaser I faded him last start and we both know you got lucky.  One out away and Wright tied it up with a single.  I'll go back to the well one more time.  You act like he's the next Tom Seaver, he's not.  He's pitching well up to now but we still have no idea how good he really is and for him to be laying these prices is ridiculous.  His entire career he's never been an ace, he was always a guy who was over looked because he doesn't have great stuff.  Who has more talent Harvey or Fernandez?  It's not even close Teaser, I would take Fernandez right now in a blink.
 
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Posted: #7

GL

 
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Teaser I faded him last start and we both know you got lucky.  One out away and Wright tied it up with a single.  I'll go back to the well one more time.  You act like he's the next Tom Seaver, he's not.  He's pitching well up to now but we still have no idea how good he really is and for him to be laying these prices is ridiculous.  His entire career he's never been an ace, he was always a guy who was over looked because he doesn't have great stuff.  Who has more talent Harvey or Fernandez?  It's not even close Teaser, I would take Fernandez right now in a blink.

bro I agree I  got lucky .. Im not acting like he is Tom Seaver but he is good and they are facing the Marlins not a contender .. I guess I will hope I get lucky again 
 
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GL MT BROTHER
 
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U nailed Minor last night...His ERA in his last 15 starts was 2.20 ....his first 15 was 6.60...think he's found it...we'll see..

Harvey looks special...I'm on him again tonight...

 
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Teaser I faded him last start and we both know you got lucky.  One out away and Wright tied it up with a single.  I'll go back to the well one more time.  You act like he's the next Tom Seaver, he's not.  He's pitching well up to now but we still have no idea how good he really is and for him to be laying these prices is ridiculous.  His entire career he's never been an ace, he was always a guy who was over looked because he doesn't have great stuff.  Who has more talent Harvey or Fernandez?  It's not even close Teaser, I would take Fernandez right now in a blink.

This is absurd.  His entire career?  He's in his second year.

You would take Fernandez over him, fine.  But with the quickness of a blink? 

Funny stuff.

 
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We have no idea how good either guy will be Dantos.

I'll take the guy that throws 98 mph.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

We have no idea how good either guy will be Dantos.

I'll take the guy that throws 98 mph.

Fernandez is definitely a talent and I really have no beef with you preferring him over Harvey, but you made it seem like it was a no brainer.

 

BOL

 
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Posted: #14

165yds picks is good fade. he's sucks this season

 
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Here's the thing. A lot of what the book bases its lines on is the saber stats, for better or worse. And generally, the saber stats are what is most sustainable long term, so it's not an accident. Not beefing with the pick because yes, you might have an extra ten cents shaded here or there. But generally, saber stats measure pitchers by what they control: how many guys are you striking out, how many are you walking, how much contact results in line drives, how much contact is getting seeing eye singles, and in which ballparks. So this idea that Harvey is gonna drop off completely and become a career #3 really has absolutely no statistical basis. 

All that said, it's the mets, so you're fading a bad team at -150 on the road, and it's one of a thousand bets you'll place this year. You have your method and it works and I personally learned a vast majority of what I do from you, but I strongly suggest you value the saber metrics at least a tiny bit more than you do. 
 
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GL, 165      
 
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reams the Met organization had him pegged as a 3 when they brought him up.  They're more surprised than anyone at what he has been able to do.  
 
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I know but scouting is imperfect, his results haven't been smoke and mirrors, they've been him blowing 95 on the paint by dudes and getting weak groundouts against mean breaking pitches. This isn't jake Westbrook walking as many guys as he strikes out and luckily getting double play groundouts at an unsustainable rate. 
 
 
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I'm not saying he won't be good or even great but he hasn't even been around the league two times yet.  What is Keith Hernandez always saying when he pitches, the league will adjust to him.  He's constantly saying the league doesn't know him yet, he's a power pitcher that throws fastballs early, these guys should be looking to swing early in the count until he adjusts back but they keep taking pitches getting down in the count.  He's pitching what is his 6th start.  He's pitched against the Nats who are struggling at the plate, at Minny in a pitchers park another bad offense.  LA,Philly and SD hardly offensive power houses.  He hasn't even faced a good lineup yet this year and has the benefit of one of the best pitching parks in the majors.  I need to see 15 more starts at least before I crown him a big time pitcher.
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