chasers hangout series 9 and 10

The Milwaukee Brewers should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. I’ll gladly take advantage and back the Brewers at an excellent price in this one.

The reason the Brewers are undervalued is because Yovani Gallardo has gotten off to a slow start this season, while Wandy Rodriquez has gotten off to a fast one for the Pirates. However, I have no doubt that Gallardo is the better starter in this one.

That’s evident when you look at his lifetime numbers against tonight’s opponent. Gallardo is 9-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 14 career starts against Pittsburgh. In fact, the Brewers are a sensational 13-1 in those games.

This play falls into a system that is 47-9 (83.9%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) – below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL.

Milwaukee is 61-24 (+25.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams – averaging 0.9 or less HR’s/game over the last 3 seasons. Gallardo is 18-2 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Pirates are 7-44 in the last 51 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Brewers Monday.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Colorado Rockies tonight. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 by a final of 12-2, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own tonight.

Much of the public is not familiar with Hyun-Jin Ryu, which is why he has been underrated in the early going this season. Ryu is 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in two road outings.

Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa will be highly intimidated going up against a team he has never beaten tonight. The left-hander is 0-7 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles. In fact, the Rockies are 0-9 in those contests. Enough said. Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.

The Boston Red Sox have a massive edge on the mound tonight and I’ll lay the juice because of it. Also, Boston has been one of the best teams in the league at 18-8, while Toronto has been one of the worst at 10-17.

Clay Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 1.009 WHIP through five starts this season for the Red Sox. Mark Buehrle is washed up, going 1-1 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.518 WHIP through five starts for Toronto this year.

Buchholz is 8-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Buehrle is 7-8 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox are 24-5 in Buchholz’s last 29 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is 44-17 in Buchholz’s last 61 starts as a favorite overall. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

The underrated Baltimore Orioles (16-12) should not be an underdog to the overrated Los Angeles Angels (10-17) tonight in Game 1 of this series. That’s especially the case considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Like the rest of Baltimore’s starting staff, Chris Tillman is an underrated hurler in this league. Tillman went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 starts last year. He is off to just a decent start this season, but he has been at his best on the road. Tillman is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in two road starts.

This selection on the Orioles is more of a fade of Los Angeles starter Joe Blanton than anything. The right-hander has been atrocious, going 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and 2.100 WHIP through five starts this season. He has given up 21 earned runs and 56 base runners over 26 2/3 innings in 2013.

The Orioles are 23-5 in their last 28 games following a loss. Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 in Tillman’s last 6 starts as a road underdog. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Blanton’s last 5 seasons. Bet the Orioles Thursday.

The Washington Nationals should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. They are getting healthy with the return of 3B Ryan Zimmerman from the disabled list tonight after winning two in a row over Atlanta the past two days.

Washington has won the past two days behind great pitching, allowing a total of one run to the Braves. I look for that shutdown pitching to continue tonight with the underrated Ross Detwiler on the mound.

Detwiler does not get the respect he deserves because he’s pitching in a loaded rotation. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 2.03 ERA through five starts this season, including 1-0 with a miniscule 0.69 ERA in two road starts.

Pittsburgh is hitting .193 and scoring 2.4 runs/game against left-handed starters this year. The Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Pirates are 4-11 in A.J. Burnett’s last 15 starts overall. Bet the Nationals Friday.

33-0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdHZ4bXhEN09iMTU3SGx0SjFub3lRUHc#gid=0

51-0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdHZqSERQZ1FRRWVmVHUtN0M1cWpGRHc#gid=0

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday. Adam Wainwright has thrown a complete game shutout this season, and it came on April 13th against the Brewers.

In fact, Wainwright has gone 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.993 WHIP through six starts this season to cement himself as a serious Cy Young contender. He’s also 9-6 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.872 WHIP in 18 career starts against Milwaukee.

Yovani Gallardo is on the decline this season, posting a 4.25 ERA and 1.472 WHIP through 6 starts. Gallardo is 1-11 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in 16 career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 6-1 in Wainwright’s last 7 road starts. St. Louis is 5-0 in its last 5 road games. The Brewers are 9-25 in their last 34 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Milwaukee is 7-20 in Gallardo’s last 27 starts as an underdog. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.