https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
4.25.2013, 3-7, -15.6 Units, -31.2% ROI
YTD – 57-67-10, -29.89 Units, -4.88% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Some better and more reliable numbers (hopefully) are becoming available now and I need to start segregating the 5 and 9 inning plays a little more. This should help as the 5 and 9 inning plays have had too many splits so far. That depreciates what you make on the dog and turns a favorite into a loser.
Yankees F5 (-.5 +110) (Johnson / Nova)
I fear Josh Johnson, whom I admire and respect, is falling into the same trap Mike Mussina did, i.e., not getting with a good team until his own best days were in the past. He is not adapting well to the A.L. style of play and this may not have been the best move for him. The Yankees offensive problems are with lefties, not righties, where they are 8-5 in the 5 inning game and scoring 5.47 earned runs per 9. The Jays counter that with 5-7-3 and 4.16.
Tigers F5 (-.5 +105) (Maholm /Sanchez)
I like both these guys but the DH is much more likely to be hard on Maholm than Sanchez and the Tigers have been rough on lefties so far, scoring 15 earned runs in only 23 innings. Coming off the surprising (to them, not me) loss to KC yesterday they should be loaded for bear today.
Rays-White Sox F5 Under 4 (-125) FG Under 7.5 (-115) (Barnett / Hernandez / Peavy)
Long story, short version: Even with Fausto involved the pitching potential in this one is far superior to the offensive potential. Someone might (on the board) suggest Larry Barnett was 13-8 to the over last year, but his strike percentage and K/BB ratio were just fine. The overs were probably due to an unusually high home run rate of 1.7 per game, a figure that is 100% dependent on the pitchers and hitters and has nothing to do with the umpire. Just as a point of reference home runs are coming in at only 0.68 per game so far this year.
Athletics F5 (-120) FG (-118) (Chen / Milone)
Lefty-lefty in
BOL
Hot Forum Topics
