Posted:
#1
Before this season Estrada's numbers are clearly superior to Edison Volquez's numbers, and that's while pitching in Miller Park compared to Safeco. To this point this season, Volquez has done nothing but get killed. The Brewers average a full run per game of offense more than the Padres and are 11-8 compared to SD's pathetic 5-15. SD has also like 10 of their last 13, their last 5 in a row are losses, a streak of 3 wins before that, and then another 5-game losing streak. The Brewers have won 9 straight. They have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 7 games, compared to 3.2 for the Padres.
And the line is a cheap -120 and the oddsmakers do so allowing the -1.5 RL on the road for a team that most could almost assume wins this game by 2+
They don't give money away, and the Brewers look like a beautifully wrapped present to all of us.
It's Padres or nothing but damn... it's hard to pull the trigger. That's usually the sign of a good play, but I don't bet against what looks like a gift blindly, I have to find some angle that favors the play, but I'm really struggling to find it on this one.
The first angle that caught my eye was the fact that Volquez (R) will be facing all RH batters except for the lead-off man while Estrada (R) will see four lefties in his first five batters --- but checking each pitchers' splits, Volquez doesn't show any solid difference year over year between facing L's or R's, far less than the difference that most RHPs sport. The same goes for Volquez - he definitely doesn't look great against Rs but get smacked by Ls, there's almost no difference between the two vs Volquez statistically.
Thoughts?
And the line is a cheap -120 and the oddsmakers do so allowing the -1.5 RL on the road for a team that most could almost assume wins this game by 2+
They don't give money away, and the Brewers look like a beautifully wrapped present to all of us.
It's Padres or nothing but damn... it's hard to pull the trigger. That's usually the sign of a good play, but I don't bet against what looks like a gift blindly, I have to find some angle that favors the play, but I'm really struggling to find it on this one.
The first angle that caught my eye was the fact that Volquez (R) will be facing all RH batters except for the lead-off man while Estrada (R) will see four lefties in his first five batters --- but checking each pitchers' splits, Volquez doesn't show any solid difference year over year between facing L's or R's, far less than the difference that most RHPs sport. The same goes for Volquez - he definitely doesn't look great against Rs but get smacked by Ls, there's almost no difference between the two vs Volquez statistically.
Thoughts?
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