Money Ball 4.24.2013

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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

4.23.2013, 3-2, +3.36 Units, +9.4% ROI

YTD – 53-55-10, +5.26 Units, +1% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Astros F5 (?) FG (+109) (Saunders / Harrell)

When you have the superior righty versus the inferior lefty at Minute Maid it does not hurt to remember that you also have a short porch to left and a better shot at or over the wall. Saunders and the Mariners offense are more than a little disappointing this year and I think we have a false favorite.

Indians F5 (?) FG (+168) (McAllister / Quintana)

What were the linemakers smoking when they came up with this line? Even if Quintana pitches his heart out he may not get a run or two to help him out. In the 5 inning game the White Sox are 3-7-5 and have an offensive era of just 2.9 per 9 versus the last 15 righties they have seen; and the news gets even better. The WS also have not played a very demanding schedule versus righties. Sub par performance versus sub par competition is really bad news.

Royals F5 (?) FG (+225) (Davis / Scherzer)

How did this line jump 60 cents overnight? I have a lot of respect for Scherzer and didn’t like the Royals probability at +165 yesterday, but +225 is a whole different matter.

Yankees F5 (?) FG (+113) (Pettitte / Cobb)

The dynamic here changes a great deal with the Yankees facing Cobb, as opposed to Price. The Yankees are not hitting lefties very well at all and really swiped one yesterday, but they are hitting righties extremely well, to the tune of an 8-4 record (5 innings) and an offensive era of 5.8 runs per 9 innings.

I will play all 4 of these games on the 5 inning line as soon as the lines open. Sorry the numbers are not yet available but I don’t think we should let that hold up the 9 inning plays as I am fairly sure when the overnight limits come off the deep pockets are going to hit these games, hard.

BOL

Lines are from BetOnline and 5Dimes. The listed pitchers are agreed at both and at MLB..com

Adjusted card: Just to be totally fair to everyone.

Astros FG (109) (Saunders / Harrell)

If you didn’t get in early, scratch it, the value is gone.

Indians F5 (+120) FG (+126) (McAllister / Quintana)

What were the linemakers smoking when they came up with this line? Even if Quintana pitches his heart out he may not get a run or two to help him out. In the 5 inning game the White Sox are 3-7-5 and have an offensive era of just 2.9 per 9 versus the last 15 righties they have seen; and the news gets even better. The WS also have not played a very demanding schedule versus righties. Sub par performance versus sub par competition is really bad news.

Royals FG (+225) (Davis / Scherzer)

Same as the Astros.

Yankees F5 (+108) FG (+113) (Pettitte / Cobb)

The dynamic here changes a great deal with the Yankees facing Cobb, as opposed to Price. The Yankees are not hitting lefties very well at all and really swiped one yesterday, but they are hitting righties extremely well, to the tune of an 8-4 record (5 innings) and an offensive era of 5.8 runs per 9 innings.

BOL

Me? Sour? Surely you jest.