April 17 Mariners vs Detroit

Last night worked out quite well, in spite of the narrow half run margin i received to cover the over 7.5 play.  The returnees to the Mariners offense provided just enough to compliment the beleaguered Mariners bullpen in getting me to 8 total runs. 

Moving forward, Felix at +money appears enticing, but I feel going under 6.5 at a nickel more offers more paths to the pay window.  Felix is stretched out now, getting into the 8th inning should be an easy task IF he is "on" tonight.  That helps me mitigate the plethora of arms in the bullpen that I dont want to put much faith in.  I can easily see the Mariners trailing 2-1ish and Wilhelmsen closing this game out.  

The Tigers offense has cooled somewhat since their stay in the bay area, a guy who hadn't pitched versus MLB players in three weeks looked pretty good last night.  Cabrera just hit a good pitch out of the park, less than five guys on the planet can take that pitch and deposit it into the CF stands.  Otherwise, the tigers roughed up Blake Beavan, another guy with 2 MLB games under his belt, and a third guy making his MLB debut.  I would be surprised if the Tigers score 3 runs tonight vs Felix on what figures to be another chilly evening at Safeco Field.

The question is . . . if I project Felix to be good,  would I rather project the Mariners offense to score one more run than Detroit, or would I rather project them to score one less run ?  The latter seems more likely.  If prices remain the same, i prefer Under 6.5 at -105 as opposed to Felix at +100

Max Scherzer has a rather unique stat line this season . . . albeit with a small sample size . . . his K rate is at a career high, up a ton from 2012, his BB rate is at a career low, his HR rate is at a career low . . . but his BAPIP has skyrocketed and will come down from it's present level of .391 . . . in addition, he figures to also to better than his 64% strand rate that he has posted in 2013 . . . all told, his FIP checks in at 2.08

None of those are sustainable for a season for a starting pitcher, but will Scherzer be able to take advantage of  Mariners weaknesses to prolong this stretch?   Seattle is middle of the road when it comes to batter strikeouts, and slightly lower with their hitter Walk rates.

In a game of pick'em, i might side with Scherzer in this one . . . tough call either way . . . another reason that I am looking for reasons to avoid an Under play.

Updated Record
6-6 overall,  sides have been good,  RL plays have been horrible
+107  average price
+0.2  Units

Under 6.5 now sits at +100,  i will wait and see if I can squeeze another nickey or dime out of it.

correct me if im wrong but doesnt scherzer's pitch count usually reach triple digits by the 6th inning?  if so are u comfortable with detroit's bp for 9 more outs? 

Mariners Lineup
CF  Gutierrez
3B  Seager
DH  Morales
RF  Morse
LF  Ibanez
1B  Smoak
C    Montero
2B   Ackley
SS  Ryan

Tigers Lineup
CF  Jackson
RF  Hunter
3B  Cabrera
1B  Fielder
DH  Martinez
LF  Dirks
SS  Peralta
C    Pena
2B  Infante

This games sails over by the 6th inning

imo, tigers bats have cooled a bit,  note the pitchers last night, and note how the final two runs were scored . . . the mariners offense is still in disarray . . . certainly, they could score 5 runs tonight,  but i think it's more likely they score far less.

the total should be lower tonight, note the pitchers.

Total seems fishy. under should be juiced at -120 not getting even money

to your previous statement I say the trap is on the total rather than the side. Tigers have scored 6 runs or more in 6 of last 7 games. Both pens have ERA's in hte upper 4/lower 5 range.

M's are the right side. hernandez owns the tigers and is coming off a bad outing (bad for his standards) against the Rangers. Situation tells me Felix has a better game than Scherzer despite his success in his 2 games.

I'm seeing a 5-2 M's win here

I wont argue with anyone that sees a Mariners win, I just don't have a ton of faith in the Mariners offense tonight . . . this game feels like a low scoring affair.  If i'm right, then Under gives me more opportunity to cash at the same price as backing Seattle.

IMO, the Over is juiced because of the pens and the tigers offense, and thus many are licking their chops and only needing a 7 spot to cash.

I hear ya 3825, I just think there is little room for error on the total but don't see either pitcher giving up for than 3. Likely wont play it BOL

Damn, Now i am concerned.

both lines seem dead nuts to me...  I'm taking Fielder over Morse H+R+RBI . 

GL

in spite of the reasoning mentioned above, and against my better judgment . . .

Under 6.5 at -105,  waiting cost me 5 cents.

Morales Over Hunter for H+R+RBI at +120

In general, Batter vs Pitcher matchups stats have little predictive value, mainly due to their small sample size.

However, in this case, I feel like i have an edge . . .
Hunter has 2 extra base hits and 4 rbi in 68 at bats vs felix, in addition, Hunter's K rate vs Felix has taken a turn in favor of the king since 2011

Before 2011:  Hunter 9 K in 41 at bats (317 avg)
Since 2011:   Hunter 10 K in 27 at bats,  (.333 avg, al singles)

In a small sample size, morales has done well vs scherzer, so I'm not concerned there . . . this is a play on Felix and a fade vs Hunter more than backing morales.

I think the Tigers struggle tonight against Felix..as they usually do.  I think the M's can get to Max.  He can labor at times.  I'm looking at M's -1/2 F5 +135 and M's for the game.  I like the Under as well, but hate totals.  JV vs Iwakuma tomorrow afternoon for the series.

BOL tonight

I think Felix's stellar numbers vs the Tigers is more of a reflection og his understanding of how to pitch than it is over specific players in the tigers lineup.  He's unbeaten since 2008, even though the Mariners lost is lone decision in 9 starts over that time period.  The ballparks are similar and allow pitchers to get away fly balls which opens up the plate a bit when throwing in those stadiums.  Felix is under rated when it comes to his pitching smarts, IMO.

how did Hunter hit that pitch?  that hurt the cause on the prop play

If this pig Ks for the 5th time I'm  going to offer to pay double on my prop wager

Being hailed as one of the better pitching duels of all time, you nailed it 3825

Please please let good old Cecil get up there again for a chance at the all time wiff record in one game... 
What a two day performance.. 9 fn k's in back to back games (and counting)... kind of amazing the more I think about it.  You get the rare golden sombrero on Tue,  but not satisfied with that embarrasment, you go out on Wed and top it with the Platinum sombrero ... 

good god man,, lay down a fn bunt attempt

I of course meant Prince,,   I was looking at the players who had struck out 6 times in a game and saw Cecil Cooper, and I must have morphed that with Prince's old man and typed in "Cecil"   It's weird how that happens sometimes and you don't even have a clue you did it until you look at it afterword. 

40 strikeouts in 14 innings,  and there were none in the 14th inning.