Here is why. How many times have you started following a system that hits greater than 60% only to land on your face and suffer 30%, 40%, etc.
The only problem is that we just don't know when it will regress. Gamglers fallacy = false, we just don't know when the regressions will happen. What goes up, must come down.
I dare you to challenge my theory. Please discuss.
If you run a computer simulated test, it will probably break even and come very close to 50%. It will never keep an angle. (30, 60%). Meaning, if it's hig (angle)h, it will regress at some point.
I would love to hear of a system that has more than 60% for 2 consecutive years. It happens, but they are very rare.
I like this idea. Just blind yourself from trends and go with the heart. I might give it a shot.
lol, I don't think you have. If you still have a day job, you don't have a system. :-)
I have programmed and ran many, many different systems on different sports, mlb, nba, nfl, nhl, and everynight, I have machines scraping html data and cleaning up and putting it in database. Then I have algorythms running. I have been doing this for severals years. I have seen very few systems hold up.
I have bad news for everyone. Vegas will still win, and we will still keep our day job.
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