What are your resources, how do you cap baseball...

Question

Baseball is easily my favorite sport to bet on, but I can't be the only one who feels that I have to re-learn how to handicap the games.

One thing that I have always felt is that while in football and some college hoops you can learn a lot about a game by the way the line is shaded, I really don't think much line shading goes on in the MLB... value is value.

I always use baseballpress.com for lineups, and along with those lineups use fangraphs.com to check the splits for pitchers, always check team history and batter vs pitcher stats (although I don't remember where I used to look up those numbers... actually, I think its on mlb.com). Aside from that, I don't really remember anything else in my approach. Usually when a new season begins in any sport I just sort of poke around the many sources of info and discover what intrigues me and makes sense.... I guess it will come back with time.

But for now, what are your go-to resources and favorite angles to betting the MLB?

Spitfire15 · Answer

Baseball is easily my favorite sport to bet on, but I can't be the only one who feels that I have to re-learn how to handicap the games.

One thing that I have always felt is that while in football and some college hoops you can learn a lot about a game by the way the line is shaded, I really don't think much line shading goes on in the MLB... value is value.

I always use baseballpress.com for lineups, and along with those lineups use fangraphs.com to check the splits for pitchers, always check team history and batter vs pitcher stats (although I don't remember where I used to look up those numbers... actually, I think its on mlb.com). Aside from that, I don't really remember anything else in my approach. Usually when a new season begins in any sport I just sort of poke around the many sources of info and discover what intrigues me and makes sense.... I guess it will come back with time.

But for now, what are your go-to resources and favorite angles to betting the MLB?

sparty444 · Answer

I think one of the most important aspects to betting baseball is having access to the best lines possible. Its a lot easier to beat it long term if you do have multiple options and have access to books such as pinnacle.

I personally play + money wagers 99% of the time. If I like chalk favorites I parlay to create a + payout. I play a lot of dogs but am not what you call a volume bettor. I think with all of the games played that its important to stay patient and look for the optimum spots. But everyone is different.

Know the bullpens .... often bettors are focused on starting pitching (which is important) but often times there is value fading solid starters with shaky bullpens. Example: Detroit Tigers.... their starting staff is loaded...but that pen is questionable. Early in the year when pitchers are on shorter pitch counts and have colder weather you can't forget the pens.

Spitfire15 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by sparty444]  I think one of the most important aspects to betting baseball is having access to the best lines possible. Its a lot easier to beat it long term if you do have multiple options and have access to books such as pinnacle.&#xD;&#xA;I personally play &#x2B; money wagers 99% of the time. If I like chalk favorites I parlay to create a &#x2B; payout.  I play a lot of dogs but am not what you call a volume bettor.  I think with all of the games played that its important to stay patient and look for the optimum spots. But everyone is different.&#xD;&#xA;Know the bullpens .... often bettors are focused on starting pitching (which is important) but often times there is value fading solid starters with shaky bullpens. Example:  Detroit Tigers.... their starting staff is loaded...but that pen is questionable. Early in the year when pitchers are on shorter pitch counts and have colder weather you can&#x27;t forget the pens.  [/Quote]ABSOLUTELY.  Along those same lines, finding the best manner of betting for what you like in a game (ex. first 5 innings, -1 lines, etc.)

Spitfire15 · Answer

Can someone, anyone, please refer me to a good source for bullpen info?? I'm a bum in this department, and ERA is a horrible predictor of bullpen strength, definitely could use some help capping the bullpens.

Getty3 · Answer

Over the course of the season, you&#x27;ll make more money by betting on bad teams that are playing good, and likewise fading good teams that are in a funk. When the 2 matchup together, it&#x27;s time to drop the hammer on the plus money underdog which is streaking against the slumping favorite. You can&#x27;t be too late to the party. I don&#x27;t know if that makes sense, but baseball is a very streaky game(far more psychological than other sports) and you have to take advantage of it when you can.

DunnoMate · Answer

I take a statistical approach primarily based on lines. I have 3-years worth of data compiled showing me various wins and losses based on line situations. Too many variables to analyze team match-ups, so I simplified things by analyzing the line situations, For example, in April, the away favorite with a line in excess of -150 is 23-7 the past 3-seasons and 18-2 the past 2. Texas already lost Sunday night but Detroit won yesterday for a 1-1 start. I&#x27;m on Texas tonight at -170 as a result because the stats tell me it is the right play. Hardly foolproof, but I concentrate on the percentages and then take into account the match-ups. Away and Home dogs under&#x2B;125 are very popular. It&#x27;s a tool, nothing more, nothing less.

BarcsHasBite · Answer

Just guess

LanceLogan · Answer

dude follow garbage like @MLBDailyBullpen, @MLBDailyLineup,  @baseball_ref, @BaseballPressthey tweet links and/or info as it happpens

VegasVandal · Answer

forget twitter this website has most of what you need https://dailybaseballdata.comweather, bullpen, lineups etc

LanceLogan · Answer

hey wadda mean forget twitter, all that sh*t is sent right to you as is soon as it's available, why wouldn't you follow that sh*t, get with the f*cking times man. for hockey it's invaluable @DailyFaceoff.

long time no see Vegas Vandal

LanceLogan · Answer

and it&#x27;s free like an open road with the t-roof off, not like this friggin place

Gordon Gekko · Answer

Avoid 20 cent shops, you&#x27;ll never win money.  Find 10 cent shops and wager there.  Example 120/100 line you immediately shop somewhere else..your looking for 130/120 type of lines.  &#xD;&#xA;Pricing points are also important when finding value.   If a pitcher is priced at -110 in Spring on road and then faces same team at -140 what makes the price change relevant?

3825 · Answer

IMO, batter-pitcher stats have little predictive value,  most sample sizes are too small.

amd · Answer

After reading through countless threads, I think most just smoke a blunt....flip a coin....and hit submit.

TheBuddah · Answer

Initially I used to think like amd - then I started looking at left vs right, day of the week, pitcher era and a couple of other factors.   Then I realized that the oddsmakers put a number on a game that takes into account all of these things - including bull pen.  For me to try and come up with my own line or to weight starting pitching vice  bull pen is a lot of wasted time (my opinion) because it still does not tell you who will win.  Realizing the worst teams win 60 games usually - I came up with looking at sagarin rankings and giving each pitcher a numerical ranking (it updates daily) and comparing that to the opening line.  Find previous scenarios and see if history repeats and it does in some cases very frequently - thus that is how I handicap games.  If you want the step by step - see the strategy section and read my post mlb: a system to consider parts 1 2 3 4.  good luck to you and all.

VegasVandal · Answer

Yea long time no see Lance only played one game of bases so far and i&#x27;m a healthy 0-1 so far still concentrating on basketball. That Weber state line was ludicrous

HoldenRg · Answer

here is what I use1=win 0=lossP(Team A=win)=P(A=1|day)*P(B=0|day)=AP(Team B=win)=P(A=0|day)*P(B=1|day)=Bso... that means thatP(Team A wins) = A/(A&#x2B;B)= A1P(Team B wins) = B/(A&#x2B;B)= B1PEACE!

Spitfire15 · Answer

Does anyone have a link to a good daily injury log or something of that nature.  Something you could check in the morning to see what happened the night before.

dimndimn · Answer

great stats site, thanks Taking dogs whenever possible is a setup for success when "investing" in sports, execution &amp; timing are always the deal maker or breaker.

What are your resources, how do you cap baseball...

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