2013 Player and Team Futures

I never really have done team totals, but I started player futures last year. Have been a long time (and very successful) fantasy baseball player and wanted to extend into the betting realm of this as I think I can find some great value. 

Last year I took Hosmer over in RBIs (loss), Hanley Ramirez's over in HR (win), Freddie Freeman over in HR (win) and Dee Gordon over in SB (was on track for easy win until he fractured his thumb leading to the bet being void). So I went 2-1-1, but 3 of the 4 reads were proper. I am going to be doing a lot more of these this year. Unforunately the lines for them aren't out yet, but I will keep an open eye out for them. If ANYONE sees Player Futures anywhere PLEASE bump this thread to let me know. I have a lot of faith in my reads, and know that if I find these early I can miss big movement. 

So, until the player props come out I will be focused on Team Totals. I am thinking I will try and focus on one team a day (or as often as I can as I am busy as a college student). As a DIEHARD Marlins fan (sucks now more than ever), I will start off with them. Will type it in a new post. 

I hope this thread can stimulate nice thought on these props that help us all be profitable on them as I think we can really be. As I mentioned earlier, any and all thoughts are welcomed. Look forward to this 

Cheers

Number one thing I look at is pitching. Quietly, the Marlins have put together a solid Starting 5. To be honest, the Marlins #1, Ricky Nolasco, may be the worst of the 5, but he a solid 4 ERA guy who stays healthy. I LOVE players on contract years and Nolasco falls into this category. The # 2 is going to be a big surprise IMO in Henderson Alvarez. Was a highly touted rookie last year who survived a year in the AL East. Another thing I love is a pitcher going from the AL to the NL. Factor in his promise as a young pitcher I think he could have a surprisingly big season. LeBlanc is a serviceable lefty who has had an ERA under 4 throughout the majority of his career. the #4 Nathan Eovaldi is a hard throwing youngster acquired in the Hanley deal. If he can focus on his location he could be a great #4. the 5th is another top prospect Jacob Turner acquired in the Infante/Sanchez deal to Detroit. He is a fantastic #5 with fantastic #2-3 pitcher upside. They have youngsters in the minors waiting in the wing in case of injuries (Brad Hand, Alex Sanabia) followed by proven veterans vowing for a spot like Kevin Slowey (who I think could easily make the team) and Scott Maine. The Marlins quietly have a solid rotation lined up for this season. 

Bullpen

Steve Cishek retains the duties as closer as he showed nice promise last year. They sign Jon Rauch for the backend adding to Ryan Webb and Mike Dunn who have been around for a couple years. Servicable arms. The rest of the spots are going to be up for grabs in spring. The bullpen is definitely shaky, but keep in mind. Were betting on a team to go AT LEAST 64-98. 

Lineup

The top of this lineup can quietly hit. One of my all time favorite players Juan Pierre returns and claims the 1 spot. He's still the pesky old player he was and he is here on a 1 year deal. Still has something to prove. Followed in the 2 hole by Placido Polanco who can, and always have, accumulate base hits. May not seem like two big time acquisitions, but you're talking about two guys who get on base and create problems. And why is that a problem? Because you have the BEAST Giancarlo Stanton sitting in the 3 hole (who I will definitely have a HR OVER play on once player props are released). This kid is the real deal as I have been saying since he was launched bombs in AA Jacksonville. This man has LEGITIMATE .300/50HR/120RBI potential IF he can play 150 games. He hit 37 bombs last year, still learning how to hit, AND missing 6 weeks due to injury. Kinda scary. Moving off my man crush, Logan Morrison should be sitting #4. IF he can be healthy for once, the man has all the potential to be a 300 hitter and RBI producer. BIG if. #5 Justin Ruggiano. Man came out of no where last year to have a big year. If he can somewhat replicate it, he would be a HUGE x-factor in this order. #6 Rob Brantly young catcher from Detroit. He has very solid potential as a .280 hitter who gets on base. #7 is Donovan Solano who showed glimpses of brilliance last year. Hechevarria, big prospect from Blue Jays, rounds out at #8. 

As you can see this lineup has a lot of Ifs. But this lineup could be a solid one. 

Bench

Very presence of Greg Dobbs is always nice. The rest of the bench will be proven in spring (Kearns, Hernandez, etc). Definitely not the strong part of this team

Summary

I don't think this team is pretty by any means. All I think is it this TT line has been diminished strictly by the negative aura that has been surrounding the team since the fire sale to the Miami Blue Jays. There is a lot of young talent on this team that is going to be tough to deal with at times, but I believe this team definitely has enough to go 64-98 this season. 

ANY AND ALL COMMENTS ARE WELCOMED!!  This was done to stimulate conversation, so I hope it does! 

Cheers

I have a lot more research to do, but honestly my initial reactions agree with your picks a lot. I think the Nats are a great pick for the East. I am a wizard of the NL East as a big Marlins fan, and the Nationals have everything you need to win. The Braves look fantastic too, but just not close to the Nationals quite yet. Other one of yours, which is one my favorites, is the Mariners over. One of my favorite teams this year. I am seeing 77.5 on Bovada, and I think that OVER is a steal. Projected lineup of Ackley Gutierrez Seager Morse Morales Montero Smoak Saunders and Ryan. That is a quietly LETHAL lineup. And why? Because they moved the fences IN 20 feet at their stadium!! I may touch on the Mariners tomorrow since you got me so pumped about them LOL. But their OVER is by far my favorite play so far. Rotation of Felix, Saunders, Iwakuma, Ramirez, and Beaven. Ive seen worse. And an above average bullpen. Love them this year. Thanks for your input Jacksup!

Didn't even think of the Astros, thanks for that. Also play Angels and Texas a lot though. Schedule won't really dictate much for me with the win totals as much as the team itself. Unfortunately I know way too much about the Marlins. Think I will have a write-up on the Mariners today as that is my favorite bet. 

If anyone else has any input I would love to hear it!

Cheers

Mariners OVER 77.5 wins 

Lineup

The Mariners quietly put together a hell of a lineup for 2013. 1) Ackley 2) Gutierrez 3) Seager 4) Morse 5) Morales 6) Montero 7) Smoak 8) Saunders 9) Ryan

I see Ackley having a huge turn around this year. The middle of that order is extremely dangerous IF they can stay healthy. The biggest reason I like this team with this lineup is the newly redefined park dimensions. Seattle moved their fences in 15-20 feet this season! Seattle has always been known to be a pitcher friendly park. Not anymore my friends with these fences being moved in. You'll be seeing a lot more HRs. 

Rotation

Starts off with this guy Felix Hernandez who is pretty good. They signed Joe Saunders as a veteran # 2 who will put in good innings. their # 3 is Iwakuma who had a surprisingly good season last year. He could be a nice sleeper going into this year. For now the 4 and 5 spots are rounded out with Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beaven. Definitely nothing special and could be worked on and WILL be worked on. Why? Because Seattle has top prospects Danny Hultzen and James Paxton waiting to hear their name called on. So a couple months into the season this rotation could be Felix, Saunders, Iwakuma, Paxton, and Hultzen. Sign me up NOW!! Two young and nasty lefties would turn this rotation into a top 10 rotation in the majors. 

Bullpen

Tom Wilhelmsem will return as closer who had a surprisingly great 2012 season there. They have 2 great lefty specialists (Luetge and Furbush) and a long relieve lefty specialist (Perez) that they could play matchup with as well as hard throwing soon to be closer Pryor sitting in the pen as well. This team has an above average pen. 

Bench

Kelly Shoppach, Robert Andino, Jason Bay, and Raul Ibanez. For an AL team, this is a pretty stacked bench. Especially if Bay is feeling like him old self which I am hearing reports about. 

Overview

The main thing about this team is that I really do not see much of a weakness on their team. The back end of the rotation but they have two young studs who could potentially win those spots in spring and if they don't they will be called up shortly. Their injury prone players in their lineup could be a problem too (Morales Morse) but they are too good of hitters to interpret that in any way for this bet. We need this team to go 78-84 to win our bet. I think that will be easy as I see this team going over .500. The toughest part about this team is being in a division with the Rangers and Angels. I would love to even sprinkle some on them to win the division, pennant, and WS, but the AL is so stacked this year that idk if I can muster myself to do so. I just love teams with depth and no glaring weaknesses and the Mariners strike me as one of these. Factor in that we only need 78 wins and that marks this team as my favorite future of 2013 so far. 

Hope this will stimulate some conversation and attract some opinions. Hope it helps some with their perspective. 

Cheers

I will specify if I will be playing them or not. I guess I will randomly pick teams from now on. I will try an average of 1 team a day. Probably more or less depending on availability. If anyone has a specific team you'd like a write-up on let me know as that would be an easy way for me to go through the teams. Marlins and Mariners are done, so I will probably go to the next recommendation and my third write-up. 

Cheers

Will do one team tomorrow if anyone has any recommendations. Would make it more intriguing for me. Hope to wake up to some good selections 

While I Like the mariners this season I am worried about that SP behind King Felix ...It's your most liked total so again I hope u hit 

Here are some I have already BET

Royals Over 77.5    Added 3 SP's James Shields ,Santana, and Wade Davis ... Plenty of Potential with all the young hittersa ..

D-Backs Over 81.5   Gibson is a very good manager .. Upton leaving is a good thing .. Team should Strikeout a lot less .. Love the IF and Bull Pen ... The Bandwagons are full for the Giants and Dodgers , but if you ask me Az is just as good , and will be fighting for the Division till the end .

Reds Over 91     should dominate the Division . Pitching looks fantastic. Hitters should be even better this season .. 93-105 wins sounds about right 

Cubs Under 72.5      The Pitching is horrible ... sure there are some young hitters on the rise , but just not even close to enough production 

Best of Luck Brother ..

Thanks for you comment Double, I appreciate it. I must bet value, and I know the Marlins more than 99.9% of people and the their value is through the roof just because of the negativeness around Loria did with the team. This team still isn't really THAT bad. I can see this team getting 67-70 wins, but yes I am not nearly as confident as the Mariners. 

Your one worry for the Mariners is their rotation. Iwakuma was very good last year and I expect a similar if not better year. Saunders is a serviceable arm who gets the job done. And I don't think people realize how BIG LEAGUE ready and close Paxton and Hultzen are. They are two YOUNG lefties with so much upside. If they impress in spring and make this rotation. I really would make this team a contender and I would definitely sprinkle on them for division, playoffs, pennants, and WS futures (Would hedge if they get there, just so much value). 

I LOVE teams that DONT have glaring weaknesses. I cannot see any glaring weaknesses with the Mariners AND the total is only 77.5. I see this Mariners team going .500 easy and impressing. Their pen and bench are nice also. I just don't see much weakness. 

As for what you bet, I was definitely leaning with the first three, and I think I will lock those all in once I do my due diligence and further dig into it. I love, love, love the Royals, which I think I posted in your thread a couple days ago. My roommate is a HUGE Royals fan so I know almost as much about them as I do my Marlins. I see Moustakas having a monster year. Hosmer should have a very solid bounce back year. I love the talent of Lorenzo Cain. Butler is a monster, Gordon is very good, Alcides will only get better. Their lineup has scary potential. And now they FINALLY have some pitching. The back end of their rotation is iffy which will probably be round out with Chen and Guthrie, but now they have solid depth with Duffy and Paulino eyeing returns during the season. Their bullpen scares me and as you saw with the Angels last year a bad bullpen can crush a teams morale. 

As for your other three Double, I will try to look into those soon and I am not as educated as I should be. Thanks for comment Double, and hope you pop back in here leading up to the season 

Due to you locking in the Cubs, and Jacksup wanting the Cubs, I will do some research on them right now before I have to hit the books.

Cheers

I would lean, and I probably will play, the UNDER 72.5

I am already on the Marlins over 63.5 and I honestly think the Marlins have a BETTER team than the Cubs. 

Lineup

Projected is 1) Dejesus 2) Shierholtz 3) Rizzo 4) Soriano 5) Castro 6) Stewart 7) Castillo 8) Barney 

That is one UGLY lineup. Dejesus gets on base, Rizzo is going to be good, and Castro is good. But everything else is ehhh. Don't see much potential in this lineup beyond them. Soriano will leave tons of RISP,Shierholtz has never played every day. This is a low AVG team. Just don't like them at all. 

Rotation

Like Double noted, this is the area alone where my money will be going on the UNDER. 1) Garza 2) Samardzjia 3) Jackson 4) Feldman 5) Wood

That is ugly. Garza is solid, but nothing special and is already banged up early in spring. Samardzija is a big question mark. Just gave Jackson the big bucks. Does he really bring his A game in Wrigley? 4 and 5 would be lucky to have lower than a 4.5 ERA. This rotation is going to give up a lot of runs and I don't see the lineup help them stay in slugging tests.

Bullpen

Any big area of concern. Marmol is back as closer and we all know how shaky that can get. Jamea Russell is a good lefty in their pen but besides him sounds like a whole bunch of question marks. Camp is a SU man but has never been very good. Everyone else are guys that I honestly have never heard of. 

Bench

C Navarro, Lilibridge, Valbuena and Hairston. Not too bad but nothing that is really factoring into my decision here

Overview

I think this team would need A LOT to go right for them to have any shot of hitting 73 wins this season. I wouldn't be surprised if they were a 60 win team. There is just nothing special about this team, and I see A LOT that could go wrong to make them look even worse. Im on board with Double here and I will most likely lock in an UNDER wager for the Cubs TT. 

You want it, you got it. Blue Jays will coming after my exam today

Blue Jays 

Lineups

This lineup is pure LETHAL now. Reyes Melky Bautista Encarnacion Rasmus Lawrie Lind Arencibia Bonifacio. 

The potential to this lineup is endless, but also has big question marks. I noticed Reyes with the Marlins last year steal less bases BUT stayed healthy the whole year which is a rarity for him. Can he do that again? Melky. Is he the Melky of last year, or is he the Melky his last year on the Yankees without steroids? Who knows. Can Bautista keep that average up? Can Encarnacion come near to his production last year? Can Lawrie finally live up to his expectations after a rough rookie year? Can Arencibia bat above .220? Lot of question marks, but so much talent and depth that I do not think this lineup will be a problem. 

Rotation

Easily has become the strength of this team. Dickey Johnson Buerhle Morrow Romero.

If Johnson and Morrow can stay healthy, Dickey can somewhat replicate last year, and Romero can have a solid bounce back season (was miserable last year) then I can see this being one of the best rotations in the league. Lots of question marks though that have a lot of risk. Don't have much pitching depth outside of them (J.A Happ and Brett Cecil are best options), so one or two injuries or let downs could result in big problems for the Blue Jays (esp if you're on over 89 wins). And this is why:

Bullpen

I think this is the weakest part of this team. You have Janssen who had a great year closing and Santos returning from injury. But besides that a bunch of question marks. Darren Oliver was great, but now is like 44 years old. Can he keep it up? If Janssen goes down or regresses and Santos has any more shoulder problems this can be a HUGE issue as I've always said that bullpens in the AL East are essential to success. With a shaky pen you can lose A LOT of wins, which is really rough on an over of 89. 

Bench

Have a nice bench with utility man Derosa, and some speed with Raja Davis. Bench, especially in the AL and on this team, really isn't factoring into my decision though.

Overview

This one is tough. It is a rough, rough division this year with all 5 teams having the potential to be competitive. I think Josh Johnson (one of my favorite pitchers) has the potential to have a huge year. I am also not sold on R.A Dickey or the Toronto pen. In all honesty I will probably not make a wager as I think this is a sharp number. Way too many question marks and competition in that division to make a wager. Good luck on whatever you may choose, but I don't have enough confidence here to go either way. Just due to competition I would actually lean under, but def won't make a play on this. 

Cheers

Like both of those ideas. I will be throwing some change on KC to win it all. +800 to win the division looks awfully nice also. Will prob do my next write-up (tomorrow) on Dbacks as their total has intrigued me. Just haven't felt much incentive to do em w.o much feedback. Plus ill really dive into this MLB stuff when March Madness concludes as its my favorite time of the year. Definitely think you have profit there tho Messier. Good luck