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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Money Ball, World Series Game #1
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:37:41 PM

Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

2012 Playoffs: 12-8-3, +15.29 Units, 20.3% ROI

Correction in ROI added this morning, my tally had a small flaw in it, but my double check does not miss those things. It can’t, that is why it is in place, the books have to balance, as in any other business.

All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”

Sunday: Tigers F5 +135, FG +134 (Sanchez / Kuroda) Push, W

Monday: Cardinals @ Giants (Carpenter / / Vogelsong) F5 Over 3.5, -110 FG Over 6.5, -110, W,W

Tuesday: Yankees @ Tigers (Hughes / Verlander) No Play

Wednesday: Giants (FG) +116 (Cain / Lohse) L

Thursday: Tigers (F5) +110 (Sabathia / Scherzer) (F5) Under 3.5, -120, W,L

Friday: NO PLAY: Saturday: NO action available

Sunday: Cardinals (FG) +113 (Carpenter / Vogelsong) L

Wednesday, 10.24.12 World Series Game 1

Tigers (FG) -1.5, +105 (Verlander / Zito)

I honestly think you are in for one of the greatest post season performances in MLB history this year. I expect Justin Verlander to write his page in the history of the game. He is absolutely on top of his form, every pitch working to perfection, and that means domination. The only thing standing in his way is that I can’t see it going 7 games so he can post three shutouts. Barry Zito has posted two playoff wins for the Giants but the first was actually an offensive win in a comeback victory over the Reds when he personally made it only 2.2 innings, surrendering 2 earned runs on 4 hits and 4 walks to 16 batters. In his second he was aided greatly by the Cardinals implosion, extremely poor play surrendering 4 unearned runs and stumbling, bumbling their way through the balance of the playoffs. Not to take anything away from Barry that he deserves, he did turn in an impressive performance with a score of 84.2, but his first was only a 60.8. I have every starting pitcher with 15 or more starts rated and Barry ranks 98th with a 1 point below average 67.8. Verlander ranks 7th at 76.8 and the disparity is probably larger since Verlander faces designated hitters in more hitter friendly parks than Zito does in the National League and a decidedly pitcher friendly park. Versus Zito’s 60.8 and 84.2 performances Verlander has posted 81.7, 88.7 and 83.3 versus better offenses and only the second was in a pitcher friendly park, at Oakland. There is really no comparison here and Bochy is grasping at straws with his hope that lefty friendly AT&T can give the Giants a chance versus the dominant right handed pitching power of the Tigers. No way, no how do I see that happening. Tigers roll, game set, match.

BOL

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#2
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:51:37 PM

Key
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#3
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:52:40 PM
GL this WS... 
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#4
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:57:59 PM
Thank you Key...much appreciated insight.
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#5
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:58:40 PM
I agree. Zito throws cheese and the Tigers will eat it up! He is a cheeseball himself and will be done by the third inning!
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#6
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:10:28 PM
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#7
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:14:40 PM
KEY.....Thoughts on total?
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KeyElement
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#8
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:15:38 PM
I'm going to toss some more kerosene on the fire and really stick my neck out there, so bash if you want. Do you know the last time the Giants faced a right handed power pitcher in Verlander's class? Well I don't either, because it was not this year. The closest was Latos and they did touch him up, but that was after being pathetic versus Arroyo and Bailey. When pitchers and hitters meet for the first time it is always (repeat, always) advantage pitcher, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Verlander sail through the first couple innings, which are usually the only ones that give him trouble.
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#9
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:18:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:

KEY.....Thoughts on total?
I am not touching the total, I don't even have a strong lean.
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#10
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:20:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I'm going to toss some more kerosene on the fire and really stick my neck out there, so bash if you want. Do you know the last time the Giants faced a right handed power pitcher in Verlander's class? Well I don't either, because it was not this year. The closest was Latos and they did touch him up, but that was after being pathetic versus Arroyo and Bailey. When pitchers and hitters meet for the first time it is always (repeat, always) advantage pitcher, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Verlander sail through the first couple innings, which are usually the only ones that give him trouble.

Stated that in EastOakland's thread...don't go in there lol. Well said.

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#11
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:28:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

Stated that in EastOakland's thread...don't go in there lol. Well said.

I read it, I know what you mean.
 
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#12
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:37:46 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I read it, I know what you mean.
 

Key - never did ask you...do you have a favorite MLB team? Just curious.

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#13
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:39:48 PM
Here's some food for thought...

Opponents hit .303/.317/.545 off of Verlander on the first pitch this season in 104 plate appearances.

So maybe the Giants hacking at everything is a good approach against him, haha.
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#14
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:40:06 PM
Right on Key!
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#15
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:42:00 PM
BOL 
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KeyElement
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#16
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:58:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

Key - never did ask you...do you have a favorite MLB team? Just curious.

You know, I really can't say that I do, except for "the one I bet on today", lol. In the Cactus League I try to see as many teams as possible and the Diamondbacks games I go to are usually a matter of the opponent or pitching matchup. I tend to like and/or dislike owners, presidents and general managers based on what they are doing for their teams and fans. Right now I would say I love the Glass family and Dayton Moore for what they are doing for the Royals and hate the Cubs upper echelon for the fools they make of their fans. Maybe the fans deserve some of the hate for supporting them but it is hard to hate loyalty from those that are paying the freight.
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#17
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:02:46 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KeyElement:

You know, I really can't say that I do, except for "the one I bet on today", lol. In the Cactus League I try to see as many teams as possible and the Diamondbacks games I go to are usually a matter of the opponent or pitching matchup. I tend to like and/or dislike owners, presidents and general managers based on what they are doing for their teams and fans. Right now I would say I love the Glass family and Dayton Moore for what they are doing for the Royals and hate the Cubs upper echelon for the fools they make of their fans. Maybe the fans deserve some of the hate for supporting them but it is hard to hate loyalty from those that are paying the freight.

Very well said. Illitch owner of the Tigers...wants to a world series and has told the GM do whatever is best for the ball club. I agree on your statement with the Cubs for sure. I wish the Pirates would have had a winning season this year...that would have been awesome.

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#18
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:18:05 PM
gl
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#19
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:20:44 PM
Are you kidding - Matt Cain 2010 - best postseason performance.  Tim Lincecum 2010 first game against ATL 14Ks.. Verlander is on the road, not at home.  People tend to forget this
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#20
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:42:28 PM
Key you make strong arguments and I love that you stand by your bet.  I just want to throw in something that keeps running through my head as I try to analyze this game.  Verlander is the best pitcher in the game right now.  He is the best pitcher between the 2 squads and that is the most important thing right now. 

I just think he has been dominant with power hitting teams.  Oakland has been a power hitting team scoring by Home Runs.  Yankees is a power hitting team having the most home runs and runs scored in the majors this year.  Giants is a speed team.  They score by getting base hits and moving the runners along.

Scutaro, former Red Sox may I add, was the MVP of the NLCS.  Why?  Because of his hitting.  Posey had 1 HR and was a big one and I think Pablo had 1 as well but all the other runs was by hitting and running.  This is a big deal in this series.  It will come down to power hitting vs. base hitting and speed.  Also infield defense. 

I give the edge to the Giants to win this series.  Because of this I give a better chance for the Giants to win game 1.  Food for thought as I am not completely sold yet on game 1, but i did play:

Game 1:

Over 7 @+118

World Series Champs:

Giants @ +137

and I will add more if the Giants lose game 1
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KeyElement
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#21
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:44:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:

Are you kidding - Matt Cain 2010 - best postseason performance.  Tim Lincecum 2010 first game against ATL 14Ks.. Verlander is on the road, not at home.  People tend to forget this
Thank you for your contribution. I have no idea what two year old playoff performances by two guys that aren't playing tonight have to do with this game, but perhaps you can enlighten me. As for the H-A thing, have you noticed Verlander has better road stats than Zito does at home?
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#22
Posted: 10/24/2012 3:32:48 PM
Best of Luck 
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#23
Posted: 10/24/2012 3:33:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Thank you for your contribution. I have no idea what two year old playoff performances by two guys that aren't playing tonight have to do with this game, but perhaps you can enlighten me. As for the H-A thing, have you noticed Verlander has better road stats than Zito does at home?

I was commenting on your "in for one of the greatest post season performances in MLB history" comment.  MLB History? wow.

Recently, I think people are discrediting Zito.  Zito shutting down the reigning world champs is more impressive to me than Verlander shutting down a dismal Yankees team that got swept.  

Surrendering 2 ER in 2.2 isn't a horrific start and he really had no choice because Bochy chose to change things up.  We have no idea how that would have played out, good or bad.

Barry Zito has a terrible public perception.  Verlander has an amazingly strong public perception, rightfully so.  This is where most of the line is created in my opinion.  I don't think the line should have been more than -140.  I don't know why or how but the Giants always seem to Rally around Zito and get him wins, as you know the team going 13-0 now in his last 13.  He's not Zito of 2009.

Appreciate all your work and insights throughout the seasons Key,  I'm on the other side of this one though.  Just hope the Giants problems hitting at home are over. 
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#24
Posted: 10/24/2012 4:35:45 PM

i think what we saw from zito against the cardinals was a great surprise.

 

what we have seen from verlander isnt.

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#25
Posted: 10/24/2012 4:44:43 PM
GL
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