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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 9/21 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:36:18 AM


9-21
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#2
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:36:55 AM
#01 Kris Medlen (1)
#02 Max Scherzer (7)
#03 Marco Estrada (14)
#04 Cliff Lee (4)
#05 Jeff Samardzija (28)
#06 Yu Darvish (54)
#07 Brett Anderson (2)
#08 Jeff Francis (73)
#09 Edwin Jackson (56)
#10 A.J. Griffin (17)
#11 Erasmo Ramirez (5)
#12 Clayton Kershaw (8)
#13 Dan Haren (83)
#14 James Shields (22)
#14 Trevor Cahill (85)
#16 Chris Sale (10)
#16 Homer Bailey (90)
#18 Stephen Strasburg (3)
#19 Corey Kluber (79)
#20 Ricky Nolasco (115)
#21 Derek Holland (93)
#22 Cole Hamels (18)
#22 Matt Harvey (29)
#24 Scott Feldman (66)
#25 Felix Hernandez (6)
#26 Justin Verlander (12)
#26 Ryan Vogelsong (108)
#28 Joe Blanton (29)
#29 Hiroki Kuroda (39)
#30 Edgar Gonzalez #N/A
#31 Anibal Sanchez (44)
#32 Kyle Lohse (67)
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#3
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:37:00 AM
#140  Luis Mendoza (160)
#140  Zach McAllister (86)
#142  Jon Lester (82)
#143  Jose Quintana (133)
#144  Lance Lynn (51)
#145  Erik Bedard (119)
#146  Randy Wolf (166)
#147  Daisuke Matsuzaka (172)
#148  Tyler Skaggs (201)
#149  Scott Diamond (76)
#150  Francisco Liriano (135)
#150  Jeanmar Gomez (212)
#152  Alex White (186)
#153  Daisuke Matsuzaka (172)
#154  Tyler Chatwood (198)
#155  Aaron Harang (178)
#155  Fernando Abad #N/A
#157  Jake Westbrook (94)
#158  P.J. Walters (203)
#159  Aaron Laffey (194)
#160  James McDonald (131)
#161  Dallas Keuchel (215)
#162  Dan Straily (198)
#163  Henderson Alvarez (192)
#163  Kevin Millwood (152)
#165  Blake Beavan (161)
#166  Ricky Romero (204)
#167  Esmerling Vasquez #N/A
#168  Chris Volstad (189)
#169  Tommy Hunter (169)
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#4
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:42:58 AM
thanks Silly!!!! 
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#5
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:56:32 AM

Read in 5t's thread that you think the Mets win one today... I'm on them at -130, my line projections had them much higher and right around what your sheets are suggesting. Yes, they are terrible, but I think the price is cheap enough to take a shot. You considering them at all?
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#6
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:20:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

Read in 5t's thread that you think the Mets win one today... I'm on them at -130, my line projections had them much higher and right around what your sheets are suggesting. Yes, they are terrible, but I think the price is cheap enough to take a shot. You considering them at all?


My line is still falling (down to -123) and I'm waiting for the line-ups.  The Marlins can load up with right handers just as the Mets can with lefties so I'm interested in seeing who they put out there.  I doubt the line will creep back above -130 so I'm willing to wait it out to get more information before I commit to betting on the second half train wreck.  

By the way, my only season future bet that I posted in my SABRmetrics Preseason thread is a 2u play on the Mets under 72.5 wins.  So I have a vested interest in them losing any night of the week.  This game presents a good hedging opportunity though - if I want to look at it that way.
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#7
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:25:22 PM
What were your football plays for the weekend
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#8
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:28:29 PM
LSU -20

LSU -13.5 & Chicago Bears PK (teaser)



I think LSU wins by 35 and I had the Bears game capped at -10 without the bias of last week's results.
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#9
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:36:40 PM
You have the garbage sheets.
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#10
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:41:02 PM
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#11
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:47:13 PM
If you're the Red Sox, do you let Baltimore sweep you to keep the Yankees out of the post season?   
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#12
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:48:56 PM
^ Yes absolutely!
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#13
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:50:56 PM
I'll be honest, that's one of the reasons why I'm not on the Sox today, and one of the reasons oddsmakers set Lester at -115 against a team he absolutely owns at home.  Gonzalez power ranked higher than Lester?  Hahahaha not likely.
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#14
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:09:19 PM


Locked in:

7:05 EST - Washington Nationals (-116)
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#15
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:11:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

If you're the Red Sox, do you let Baltimore sweep you to keep the Yankees out of the post season?   
that's very interesting.  I was just getting close to being committed to playing the Sox tonight, but now I'm reconsidering after reading that.  Public is all over Baltimore and may bring the Sox line close to being a dog by gametime
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#16
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:14:23 PM
My model has the Nationals at -119, but given the recent play of both starting pitchers I have to make serious adjustments to the line.  Jackson ranks #9 over the last 30 days whereas Marcum ranks #113.  Of course, the Brewers are swinging the bat well right now, but that doesn't make up for how poorly Marcum is pitching (he doesn't have a quality start since and averages only 4.2 IP since returning from the DL).  I relined this game at Washington -140.
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#17
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:16:24 PM
I'm also looking to play the Houston Astros and the New York Mets
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#18
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:33:55 PM
Any thoughts on Zona or the total in SD/SF?
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#19
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:35:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ReadBtWtheLines:

Any thoughts on Zona or the total in SD/SF?

Zona line is at fair value.  I lean under in San Fran but the margin is slim.. I'm probably passing.
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#20
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:42:00 PM
Thx very much si1ly. Best of luck mate. Cheers.
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#21
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:43:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KktdocT:

You have the garbage sheets.

I always thought Brits omit the definite article.
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#22
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:46:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'll be honest, that's one of the reasons why I'm not on the Sox today, and one of the reasons oddsmakers set Lester at -115 against a team he absolutely owns at home.  Gonzalez power ranked higher than Lester?  Hahahaha not likely.

I had the line projected at exactly -120 Red Sox... reasoning being both Gonzalez and Lester were +100 @ Blue Jays against Brandon Morrow in the past few starts. Power rankings should be even then, so give the 15 cents for home field advantage and you've got your current line.
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#23
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:48:18 PM

Any concern the Nats clinched last night and partied the night away...

...I know that motivation is not as big (if at all) an impact in the MLB as compared to the NBA, NFL, etc. But I hangover can't help any athletes peformance.

Thoughts?
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#24
Posted: 9/21/2012 2:45:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Monk2334:

Any concern the Nats clinched last night and partied the night away...

...I know that motivation is not as big (if at all) an impact in the MLB as compared to the NBA, NFL, etc. But I hangover can't help any athletes peformance.

Thoughts?


No.  Actually I read that they conducted themselves rather professionally after the game.  They're still playing for first place... and they have something to prove with Strasburg exiting early.  I think they'll play hard through the rest of the regular season.  No reason to expect any let down tonight given their advantages across the board.  In fact, I did not factor any let down angle into the setting of my line.
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#25
Posted: 9/21/2012 2:59:47 PM
Silly my man you could teach this attention grubbing behind  KKTDOC a thing or 2 about capping , and manners... the guy is a real idiot... he cries all the time about people hatting on him when in actual fact he hates on everyone ...Good luck with your picks SILLY ..YOU been tearing it up in the nfl so far and  all  season in the mlb...Also unlike some people you keep a year to date..I guess when your betting monopoly money a year to date is kind of pointless
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