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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Money Ball, Wednesday, 8-29-2012
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 8/29/2012 10:41:47 AM

YTD: 264-259-20, +189.1 Units, +7.57% RoR

4-2, +14.57 Units gets things back on track and sends the week into Wednesday 4-6, -5.43 units.

A big shout out and to dermluvsbobo for the Grand Salami UNDER suggestion. I endorsed that but have not taken credit for it. Should have spotted it but had to be alerted by someone else. Anyway, it cashed nicely and we gotta take em where we can get em. Thanx buddy.

And, oh my goodness, we had JEG, bd_c, and Key all sniping at each other and slinging the smack just like the old days. MrOPC would be proud of us, boys. Yee-Haw. Regardless of the excuses and disclaimers offered in yesterday’s thread, bd_c is still a f---ing homer, and JEG is still a fat behind swing shift bartender.

Moving right along here, the following example is for JEG, as promised yesterday.

When laying a $500 wager on a favorite you can not avoid laying the juice, you just don’t ADD it. A flat wager is exactly that, nothing added. When betting 500 on a -120 favorite you do not add 100 juice to make a $500 profit, you accept a win amount of 416.65 and a payback of 916.65, because each $100 of the wager earned $83.33. Even online books can be manipulated. If you enter 500 in the wager amount field most will post up a $600 wager and a possible $500 win. But if you do your math and enter 416.65 in the wager field, the software adds the juice and you have a $500 wager that pays 416.65 profit if it wins. The concept of flat wagering has been around for eons among pros, only the public has been taught to add the juice. Why do you suppose that is? Because it is in the public’s best interest to add the juice? Not likely. Adding juice is adding risk to achieve a desired profit, but profit can not be controlled; only risk can be controlled.

I will be back soon with my picks.

BOL

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#2
Posted: 8/29/2012 10:48:59 AM
Congrats on your picks yesterday KE. Dude you were the only on this site I saw that was on Seattle's side with me. Iwakuma is the man. If Felix is the King then Iwakuma should be the Prince. I'm going to be betting on that guy the rest of the season.
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#3
Posted: 8/29/2012 10:55:40 AM
nice discussion yesterday  
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#4
Posted: 8/29/2012 10:57:39 AM
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#5
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:19:20 AM
Nice job yesterday, Key!   
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#6
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:21:17 AM
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#7
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:24:29 AM

thanks key, appreciate it. lets keep it rolling buddy

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#8
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:45:56 AM
Great explanation Key!  Thanks.
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#9
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:47:16 AM
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#10
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:49:06 AM
Always enjoy your threads Key
Keep bankin
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#11
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:56:05 AM

5 & 9 Inning Plays Today

Padres +110, +112, (Hanson / Stults)

Yesterday I called Iwakuma possibly the best kept secret in MLB. If anyone challenges that honor it may be Stults, and while I am at it I will tell you Tommy Hanson is not in the best of his form and today I can back the “won’t get swept at home” theory.

White Sox-Orioles Over 5, +100, Over 9, +110, (Axelrod / Saunders)

Noone ever called Joe Saunders lucky and going from one pitchers park to another won’t do him any good. The fact is getting traded from the NL West to the AL East is like a kick a groin to him. Now he doesn’t have the other divisional parks to help keep his stats respectable. Axelrod comes out of the pen to give the Orioles one more righty to bash.

Mets +150, +153, (Harvey / Hamels)

It is definitely time to take Harvey seriously. The numbers are there.

Cardinals-Pirates Over 4.5, -120, Over 8.5,-110, (Kelly / Rodriguez)

Both teams get a starter they can hit and the Cardinals should be smoking after the shutout, Pirates going for the sweep, offensive war.

Royals +115, +120, (Sanchez / Chen)

Eventually either the Tigers or White Sox will win the AL Central, but it may be by default of the other. Neither acts or plays like an aggressive, dominant contender. Meanwhile the Royals are playing some very good ball.

Mariners -110, -105, (Vargas / Deduno)

At least they finally have the right favorite, but not by enough. I could justify a line of -135 here but that would draw one of the idiots out from under his rock and possibly piss me off, so just take my word for it, OK?

Red Sox-Angels Over 5, +100, Over 9, -105, (Stewart / Wilson)

Again, a ball basher’s delight of a matchup. The low projection of 9 comes from the Angels park, but that ain’t gonna hold off these sticks tonight.

BOL

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#12
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:57:40 AM
The Braves is not going for a sweep. They lost game 1 with Maholm.
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#13
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:08:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by football_007:

The Braves is not going for a sweep. They lost game 1 with Maholm.
Ah, yes, true, but that does not change my opinion of this game. Just one of those "off the top of my head" brain farts, lol.
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#14
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:12:06 PM
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#15
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:15:00 PM
Hamels not pitching
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#16
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:16:25 PM
Scratch the Mets play. I don't like it at all when they are still a dog to an unknown righty. This kid could be good.
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#17
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:17:13 PM
Nice big card Key, GL 
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#18
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:17:26 PM
Pirates are also not going for sweep just so you know 
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KeyElement
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#19
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:31:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Osirus13:

Pirates are also not going for sweep just so you know 
Brain farts galore this morning, but they do not change my opinion or the probability. I just get to typing too fast to get the picks up before the lines change radically.
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#20
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:40:00 PM

key, great call on the Mariners last night. thought it was solid based on your analysis. any thoughts on reds for the sweep?

 

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#21
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:47:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dermluvsbobo:

key, great call on the Mariners last night. thought it was solid based on your analysis. any thoughts on reds for the sweep?

 

I think the Reds should get the sweep but Latos has his moments of disaster and Corbin may be flying just a little under the radar. Best of luck if you play.
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#22
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:54:45 PM
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#23
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:56:56 PM
"When laying a $500 wager on a favorite you can not avoid laying the juice, you just don’t ADD it. A flat wager is exactly that, nothing added. When betting 500 on a -120 favorite you do not add 100 juice to make a $500 profit, you accept a win amount of 416.65 and a payback of 916.65, because each $100 of the wager earned $83.33. Even online books can be manipulated. If you enter 500 in the wager amount field most will post up a $600 wager and a possible $500 win. But if you do your math and enter 416.65 in the wager field, the software adds the juice and you have a $500 wager that pays 416.65 profit if it wins. The concept of flat wagering has been around for eons among pros, only the public has been taught to add the juice. Why do you suppose that is? Because it is in the public’s best interest to add the juice? Not likely. Adding juice is adding risk to achieve a desired profit, but profit can not be controlled; only risk can be controlled."


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#24
Posted: 8/29/2012 1:05:41 PM
I was hoping to see you on Tampa, but good luck. 
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#25
Posted: 8/29/2012 1:07:50 PM
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