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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Thx Vegas & Geniuses 8/19/12
tafter12
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tafter12
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#1
Posted: 8/19/2012 5:30:10 AM
Dear Vegas,
I see that you've favored a team with a worse record, a SP with a worse ERA & a worse record.  This particular SP has been getting shelled most of the year, and is coming off of a 10 hit performance and only struckout one batter.  Wow!  Good Times, I hope. 

Shiny Lures
MIL -117

Missing Ribs
SF / SD Under 6.5

Shiny Lures
33-19 (+9.34 Units)

Fulcrum
10-3 (+6.63 Units)

Missing Ribs
0-1-1 (-1.10 Units)



Alert Gentlemen... .. .

St Louis fits the Shiny Lures play. 

Pittsburgh fits The Fulcrum. 

What do you guys think we should do? 

a)Do we dare to fade one of the plays? 
b)Or do we just cross it off the board?  



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#2
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:00:33 AM
I don't understand the reason you are asking, Why?
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tafter12
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#3
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:08:09 AM
So what you're saying FTP, if post them both to keep track? 
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tafter12
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#4
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:08:52 AM
*is post them both to keep track.?

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#5
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:16:08 AM
I'm asking what the reason you would not post or play these two?
Is there any reason not to play them, besides that it might be too many plays on a given day? 

I know you like the 1st one one, are the other two iffy or what is the case?

Tough break yesterday
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tafter12
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#6
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:19:09 AM
St Louis is hosting Pittsburgh

LAA was a tough break.  I checked the score early on, and had pretty much chalked it up as a win.  Oh well. 
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tafter12
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#7
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:22:42 AM
Do I post them both as picks?  Do I cross the game off the board?  If I do cross it off the board, do I (not) count it towards plays' record? 
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#8
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:34:48 AM
If a system calls for a play, of course it has to count towards the record. The bets themselves of course cancel each other out, but the results should be tabulated for record keeping purposes. Since you're following both systems, you're personal tally will be slightly different than the combined record for the systems, because you are saving juice by having one play cancel the other.
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#9
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:37:06 AM
Oh okay, I'm sorry didn't notice that. It might be too late or too early depending how you look at it. 

I would suggest you do cross it off the board and NOT count it in any record, but im really bad at these things so do whatever feels right. thanks
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#10
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:38:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stew Baker:

If a system calls for a play, of course it has to count towards the record. The bets themselves of course cancel each other out, but the results should be tabulated for record keeping purposes. Since you're following both systems, you're personal tally will be slightly different than the combined record for the systems, because you are saving juice by having one play cancel the other.

You will be losing the juice as far as the records go, depending what book you use it can be as much at .20.
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#11
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:53:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FTP:


You will be losing the juice as far as the records go, depending what book you use it can be as much at .20.
One could have a separate entry for juice saved by bets cancelling each other out, but that's on the order of a tecnicality since the situation won't come up that often.
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tafter12
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#12
Posted: 8/19/2012 6:56:47 AM
Good call.  I'll post it just for record keeping purposes, but I'm not really leaning either way.  If you're tailing these plays, I think it'd bad business to play this game at all. 

I'll go ahead and take one for the team so that we all know which play is perhaps stronger.  This may come up again. 

BOL

Shiny Lures
STL -154

Fulcrum

PIT +145

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#13
Posted: 8/19/2012 8:21:00 AM
Return from DL Garcia,  against "Karstens is 3-0 in day games, allowing three earned runs in 19 innings for a 1.42 ERA" from MLB.com...
Im going to go with the FULCRUM!
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#14
Posted: 8/19/2012 9:09:29 AM
True indeed Wiggy! I always like the plus money on FULCRUM bets!! Thanks Taft. 
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#15
Posted: 8/19/2012 10:31:24 AM
Karsten's daytime this year is good but his previous 2 years were very bad.I believe 2 of the 3 games this year were vs Cubs and Mia.I prefer over in the game.GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
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#16
Posted: 8/19/2012 10:43:10 AM
When the Shiny Lures match the Fulcrum, you should do the Fish move and ML the Lure and +RL the Fulcrum. lol

BOL today. 
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#17
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:12:24 AM
BOL guys.  I'm taking MIL small and the missing ribs small. 

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tafter12
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#18
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:28:05 AM
Friday's Recap
Home Teams 5-11
Favorites 7-8  (1 game was -101/-105)
Overs 9-7



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#19
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:33:38 AM
With you on the Brew Crew
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fresh4lyph
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#20
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:36:11 AM
i'd take the fulcrum 

love mil & sf/sd u
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#21
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:57:28 AM
leans Mil, Pit over and Pit
Bol today
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#22
Posted: 8/19/2012 12:43:32 PM
GL, mate.
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tafter12
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#23
Posted: 8/19/2012 10:38:47 PM
MIL -117
SF / SD Under 6.5
STL -154
PIT +145


Shiny Lures
33-21 (+6.63 Units)

Fulcrum
11-3 (+8.08 Units)

Missing Ribs
0-2-1 (-2.20 Units)

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