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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: 8/17 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#1 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:19:13 AM 8-17
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#2 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:19:47 AM TOP 30 PITCHERS LAST 30 DAYS FULL SEASON RANK IN (#) #01 Adam Wainwright (15) #02 Jordan Zimmermann (28) #03 Madison Bumgarner (20) #04 Hiroki Kuroda (51) #05 David Price (25) #06 Doug Fister (17) #07 Mark Rogers (5) #07 Tommy Milone (85) #09 Roy Halladay (23) #10 Kris Medlen (7) #11 Clayton Kershaw (22) #12 Justin Verlander (12) #13 Patrick Corbin (69) #13 R.A. Dickey (6) #15 CC Sabathia (21) #16 Wade Miley (33) #17 James Shields (37) #18 Joe Blanton (33) #19 Josh Johnson (38) #20 A.J. Griffin (68) #20 Johnny Cueto (35) #22 Paul Maholm (91) #23 Mike Fiers (13) #23 Jason Marquis (113) #25 Ivan Nova (73) #26 J.A. Happ (88) #27 Jarrod Parker (110) #28 Chris Sale (10) #29 Max Scherzer (32) #30 Stephen Strasburg (4)
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#3 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:20:18 AM
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#4 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:20:31 AM BOTTOM 30 PITCHERS LAST 30 DAYS FULL SEASON RANK IN (#) #137 Ervin Santana (180) #138 Justin Masterson (129) #138 Travis Wood (207) #140 John Lannan (184) #141 Ricky Romero (200) #142 Nathan Eovaldi (171) #143 Henderson Alvarez (176) #144 James McDonald (82) #145 Aaron Laffey (173) #146 Matt Harrison (135) #147 Samuel Deduno (236) #148 Garrett Richards (194) #149 Dan Haren (101) #150 Mark Buehrle (112) #151 Chris Young (187) #152 Stephen Fife (244) #152 Josh Beckett (126) #154 Kip Wells (211) #154 Brooks Raley (206) #156 Zach Britton (242) #157 Tommy Hanson (168) #158 Chris Seddon (215) #159 Dallas Keuchel (214) #160 Philip Humber (189) #161 Gavin Floyd (154) #162 Armando Galarraga (219) #163 Jonathan Sanchez (225) #164 Carlos Zambrano (188) #165 Christian Friedrich (119) #166 Derek Lowe (183)
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#5 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:24:17 AM Locked in: Parlay: Arizona Diamondbacks ML & Detroit Tigers ML (+110)
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#6 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:26:07 AM If you see any reason for me not to hammer the Cardinals speak now because I'm getting a stiffy for this game!
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#7 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:27:51 AM Geez Arizona looks even better...my discipline is going to be tested tomorrow
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badlucky	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Nov 2008 Posts: 56 Location: New Jersey	#8 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:28:15 AM GL
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tstove	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Feb 2011 Posts: 902 Location: Pennsylvania	#9 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:30:15 AM thinking about locking in Arizona now
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Decrypticshadow	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Rookie Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 596 Location: California	#10 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:35:15 AM Thanks Si1ly
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#11 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:44:51 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur: If you see any reason for me not to hammer the Cardinals speak now because I'm getting a stiffy for this game! St. Louis is a great baseball team statistically speaking. I tend to lean their way in most games. I then have to make the difficult decision of finding a sound reason not to play them. Usually that involves asking myself is the juice worth the squeeze?
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eyemtlaw	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 1266 Location: California	#12 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:46:19 AM Curious on why no 2u play on Arizona -1? Is it because of the juice? I remember earlier in the season a rare 2u play on the Rockies and Friedrich where the projected ML and ML had a huge significance as this game? I would also think that the Reds would be a play if we are looking at value.
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composite	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2740 Location:	#13 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:46:55 AM Locked in: Parlay: Arizona Diamondbacks ML & Detroit Tigers ML (+110) - why does Detroit have value? It looks like your spreadsheet says -280 is about right.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#14 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:52:56 AM You guys see the result of my model every day. I never adjust the output and I very rarely get results in the -300's. Definitely fewer than 10 times - maybe fewer than 5 - this year has the output been this high. What makes this number even more shocking is that it doesn't factor in recent performance in which I would give an even bigger boost to Arizona's projection. Miley is top 20 and Keuchel is bottom 10. I'm also playing the -1 run line at -135. Effectively risking two units on the Diamondbacks.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#15 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:57:19 AM Detroit with a 73.7% chance to win and Arizona with a 77.2% chance to win means both will win 57.1% of the time. This translates to a true line on the parlay of -133. Since I'm getting +110 on the parlay, I see 43 cents of value - right in my butter zone.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#16 Posted: 8/17/2012 12:59:42 AM Locked in: 8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135)
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eyemtlaw	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 1266 Location: California	#17 Posted: 8/17/2012 1:11:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly: Locked in: 8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135) I knew a Arizona play had to be coming. Have 2 units riding on the Diamondbacks winning. Hope the numbers work in our favor this time. GL to us!!
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blizair	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 4 Location:	#18 Posted: 8/17/2012 1:15:39 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly: Locked in: 8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135) where are u getting that line?
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roondog248	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 918 Location: Florida	#19 Posted: 8/17/2012 1:27:08 AM On any given day, How far behind are your models on current stats?
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composite	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2740 Location:	#20 Posted: 8/17/2012 1:32:40 AM Detroit with a 73.7% chance to win and Arizona with a 77.2% chance to win means both will win 57.1% of the time. This translates to a true line on the parlay of -133. Since I'm getting +110 on the parlay, I see 43 cents of value - right in my butter zone. You're probably a better math whiz than me. It just seems odd that parlaying a Detroit team @ the correct odds creates more value than Arizona at -177. Also, what do you think of Arizona -2.5? Any value there? Either way, great f**kin job so far! This is always the first thread I look for in MLB!
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Needa_win	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 76 Location: California	#21 Posted: 8/17/2012 2:34:28 AM appreciate all your work. 8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135) and the parlay.
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#22 Posted: 8/17/2012 2:39:59 AM I read that James McDonald is coming off 6 days of rest and put some extra work in with the pitching coach over the last week. He's been bad lately but the Cards offense can sometimes disappear vs. RHP. I might end up passing on this game With you on Zona and Detroit though. BOL tomorrow
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ninjutsu25	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 327 Location: Philippines	#23 Posted: 8/17/2012 2:41:43 AM
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ninjutsu25	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 327 Location: Philippines	#24 Posted: 8/17/2012 2:52:32 AM si1ly my man, is it ok if i post some of your plays in other thread? im gathering some of the plays of the best here in covers to make a 3team to 5team parlay.. i hit 4 5teamers in 2 days just doing that.. of course with lady luck doing the mixing and matching.. just like you i want to help others and newbies who doesnt know the legits here in covers.. thanks a lot man!
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GiLmo574	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Hard Rock \|
Covers Rehab Joined: Nov 2008 Posts: 21804 Location: California	#25 Posted: 8/17/2012 3:53:52 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by ninjutsu25: si1ly my man, is it ok if i post some of your plays in other thread? im gathering some of the plays of the best here in covers to make a 3team to 5team parlay.. i hit 4 5teamers in 2 days just doing that.. of course with lady luck doing the mixing and matching.. just like you i want to help others and newbies who doesnt know the legits here in covers.. thanks a lot man! I'll answer for him. NO. Keep it all about Silly in Silly's thread on Silly's time.
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