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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 8/17 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
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#1
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:19:13 AM


8-17





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#2
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:19:47 AM
TOP 30 PITCHERS LAST 30 DAYS
FULL SEASON RANK IN (#)

#01 Adam Wainwright (15)
#02 Jordan Zimmermann (28)
#03 Madison Bumgarner (20)
#04 Hiroki Kuroda (51)
#05 David Price (25)
#06 Doug Fister (17)
#07 Mark Rogers (5)
#07 Tommy Milone (85)
#09 Roy Halladay (23)
#10 Kris Medlen (7)
#11 Clayton Kershaw (22)
#12 Justin Verlander (12)
#13 Patrick Corbin (69)
#13 R.A. Dickey (6)
#15 CC Sabathia (21)
#16 Wade Miley (33)
#17 James Shields (37)
#18 Joe Blanton (33)
#19 Josh Johnson (38)
#20 A.J. Griffin (68)
#20 Johnny Cueto (35)
#22 Paul Maholm (91)
#23 Mike Fiers (13)
#23 Jason Marquis (113)
#25 Ivan Nova (73)
#26 J.A. Happ (88)
#27 Jarrod Parker (110)
#28 Chris Sale (10)
#29 Max Scherzer (32)
#30 Stephen Strasburg (4)
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#3
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:20:18 AM
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#4
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:20:31 AM
BOTTOM 30 PITCHERS LAST 30 DAYS
FULL SEASON RANK IN (#)

#137 Ervin Santana (180)
#138 Justin Masterson (129)
#138 Travis Wood (207)
#140 John Lannan (184)
#141 Ricky Romero (200)
#142 Nathan Eovaldi (171)
#143 Henderson Alvarez (176)
#144 James McDonald (82)
#145 Aaron Laffey (173)
#146 Matt Harrison (135)
#147 Samuel Deduno (236)
#148 Garrett Richards (194)
#149 Dan Haren (101)
#150 Mark Buehrle (112)
#151 Chris Young (187)
#152 Stephen Fife (244)
#152 Josh Beckett (126)
#154 Kip Wells (211)
#154 Brooks Raley (206)
#156 Zach Britton (242)
#157 Tommy Hanson (168)
#158 Chris Seddon (215)
#159 Dallas Keuchel (214)
#160 Philip Humber (189)
#161 Gavin Floyd (154)
#162 Armando Galarraga (219)
#163 Jonathan Sanchez (225)
#164 Carlos Zambrano (188)
#165 Christian Friedrich (119)
#166 Derek Lowe (183)

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#5
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:24:17 AM

Locked in:

Parlay:  Arizona Diamondbacks ML  &  Detroit Tigers ML (+110)
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#6
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:26:07 AM
If you see any reason for me not to hammer the Cardinals speak now because I'm getting a stiffy for this game! 
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#7
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:27:51 AM
Geez Arizona looks even better...my discipline is going to be tested tomorrow
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#8
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:28:15 AM
 GL
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#9
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:30:15 AM
thinking about locking in Arizona now
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#10
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:35:15 AM
Thanks Si1ly 
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#11
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:44:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

If you see any reason for me not to hammer the Cardinals speak now because I'm getting a stiffy for this game! 

St. Louis is a great baseball team statistically speaking.  I tend to lean their way in most games.  I then have to make the difficult decision of finding a sound reason not to play them.  Usually that involves asking myself is the juice worth the squeeze?
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#12
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:46:19 AM
Curious on why no 2u play on Arizona -1? Is it because of the juice? I remember earlier in the season a rare 2u play on the Rockies and Friedrich where the projected ML and ML had a huge significance as this game? 

I would also think that the Reds would be a play if we are looking at value. 
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#13
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:46:55 AM

Locked in:

Parlay: Arizona Diamondbacks ML & Detroit Tigers ML (+110)
 
- why does Detroit have value? It looks like your spreadsheet says -280 is about right.
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#14
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:52:56 AM
You guys see the result of my model every day.  I never adjust the output and I very rarely get results in the -300's.  Definitely fewer than 10 times - maybe fewer than 5 - this year has the output been this high.  What makes this number even more shocking is that it doesn't factor in recent performance in which I would give an even bigger boost to Arizona's projection.  Miley is top 20 and Keuchel is bottom 10.  I'm also playing the -1 run line at -135.  Effectively risking two units on the Diamondbacks.
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#15
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:57:19 AM
Detroit with a 73.7% chance to win and Arizona with a 77.2% chance to win means both will win 57.1% of the time.  This translates to a true line on the parlay of -133.  Since I'm getting +110 on the parlay, I see 43 cents of value - right in my butter zone.


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#16
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:59:42 AM


Locked in:

8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135)
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#17
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:11:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:



Locked in:

8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135)

I knew a Arizona play had to be coming. Have 2 units riding on the Diamondbacks winning. Hope the numbers work in our favor this time. GL to us!!
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#18
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:15:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:



Locked in:

8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135)

where are u getting that line?
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#19
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:27:08 AM
On any given day, How far behind are your models on current stats?
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#20
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:32:40 AM

Detroit with a 73.7% chance to win and Arizona with a 77.2% chance to win means both will win 57.1% of the time. This translates to a true line on the parlay of -133. Since I'm getting +110 on the parlay, I see 43 cents of value - right in my butter zone.

You're probably a better math whiz than me. It just seems odd that parlaying a  Detroit team @ the correct odds creates more value than Arizona at -177.

Also, what do you think of Arizona -2.5? Any value there?

Either way, great f**kin job so far!  This is always the first thread I look for in MLB! 

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#21
Posted: 8/17/2012 2:34:28 AM

appreciate all your work. 

8:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-135)

and the parlay. 

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#22
Posted: 8/17/2012 2:39:59 AM
I read that James McDonald is coming off 6 days of rest and put some extra work in with the pitching coach over the last week.  He's been bad lately but the Cards offense can sometimes disappear vs. RHP.  I might end up passing on this game

With you on Zona and Detroit though.  BOL tomorrow 
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#23
Posted: 8/17/2012 2:41:43 AM
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#24
Posted: 8/17/2012 2:52:32 AM
si1ly my man, is it ok if i post some of your plays in other thread? im gathering some of the plays of the best here in covers to make a 3team to 5team parlay.. i hit 4 5teamers in 2 days just doing that.. of course with lady luck doing the mixing and matching.. just like you i want to help others and newbies who doesnt know the legits here in covers.. thanks a lot man!
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#25
Posted: 8/17/2012 3:53:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ninjutsu25:

si1ly my man, is it ok if i post some of your plays in other thread? im gathering some of the plays of the best here in covers to make a 3team to 5team parlay.. i hit 4 5teamers in 2 days just doing that.. of course with lady luck doing the mixing and matching.. just like you i want to help others and newbies who doesnt know the legits here in covers.. thanks a lot man!


I'll answer for him.


NO.    



Keep it all about Silly in Silly's thread on Silly's time.    
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