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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: ***GWarner27's 8/14 MLB Picks (91-93-4 49.5% YTD)***
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#1
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:28:37 AM
+9.784

Dogs 53-55 +13.018
Favs 14-12 -0.401
RLs 0-0 +0.00
1st 5 3-5-1 -2.15
Over 6-13-3 -7.61
Under 13-8 +4.69
Team Totals 0-0 +0.00
Parlay 2-0 +2.237

April 23-19-1 +6.88
May 20-26 -2.823
June 18-14-1 +5.491
July 20-21-2 +1.421
August 10-13 -1.185
September 0-0 +0.00
October 0-0 +0.00

Futures:
New York NL UNDER 84.5 (-125): 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18

Notes:
-Dodgers played a tight one with the Pirates, Harang was better than Karstens who's pretty average to the point where the Pittsburgh announcers were praising the guy for 7ip 4er. Jansen came in and shut the door after the bullpen made it interesting and a fortunate comebacker ended a serious threat
-Vogelsong had one bad inning spiral into a terrible one in his worst outing in who knows how long. Think it's fair to assume a 14-0 lead through 6 is a W, but I am short on SF and will continue to look to go against them. I bet they'll be pissed for tomorrow's game, but I'm thinking under there
-Mets had the day off to travel to Cincy after SNB, which looks like a break after the Braves struggled to hit a journeyman. Who knows what Terry is gonna do with that bullpen because he's forced to experiment. I expect Rauch to get some save chances and that may be the best thing for them. Yikes...
quote
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#2
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:38:01 AM
Full-game losers when 1st 5 hit: 3
1st 5 losers when full-game hit: 1
Wins given away for lower juice: 1
Blown Saves in 9th or later: 9 (Francisco (2), League, Hanrahan, Perkins, Johnson, Casilla, Frieri, Isringhausen)

Tuesday guesses:
PIT -105/8.5u15 bc
CIN -210/8.5u20 yL
ATL -155/8o20 rh
MIA -145/8o20 kj
CHC -130 hv
StL -115/9u15 kk
COL +115/10.5o20 wc
SF -125/6o20 zb
BAL -125/8.5o20 bc
NYY -150/9o20 hk
TOR -105/8.5o15 qa
MIN +180/8.5o15 fd
KC +130/9u20 pg
LAA -195/8u20 jg
SEA +135/7 mm

interests:
LAD ML
HOU ML
COL over
CHW ML

hopes:
LAD +110
HOU +130
COL o10
CHW +110

plan to lean:
LAD +100
HOU +125
COL o10.5
CHW +100

leans (67-78 2H, 3-3 yesterday):
Was u6.5: Layne
Bal -118
Tor +120: Winters
Det ML parlay: Porter
Sea +146: Fletcher

...can't say I love much but I do lean this way based on prices. Washington under is probably the strongest lean if we can avoid the good pen
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GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#3
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:34:02 PM
Updated leans:
Bal -108
Sea +151
Det ML parlay if I can find a partner 
quote
andreagassi6969
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andreagassi6969
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#4
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:57:28 PM
quote
SportsFreak69
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SportsFreak69
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#5
Posted: 8/14/2012 2:37:01 PM
Best of Luck 
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222bad send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
222bad
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#6
Posted: 8/14/2012 4:11:11 PM
  GWarner
quote
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#7
Posted: 8/14/2012 7:06:05 PM
Looks like a day off today, almost went after Baltimore but just don't like the lineup difficiency when laying juice...

For Wednesday...

Locked in:
Tampa Bay ML (+120) @ Seattle
-Rays have treated me worse than anyone this year, but Hellboy can pitch and the M's don't hit at home. King Felix will make a bunch of Rays look foolish, but so will hellickson and this price is too big.


add
Cleveland ML (+180) @ Los Angeles
-Though Roberto Hernandez was a rookie until I saw he had a lot of exposure to LAA before I realized he was one of the alias cases. Fausto Carmona, as i know him and will refer to him, is a good sinkerballer who will have the benefit from Gibson's K-zone in his first start back. This number is just whacked considering Ervin's numbers this year. Santana has always been better in Anaheim, but he's gotten tattooed there too so why let a big number like this go when I have a great bullpen at my disposal. Obviously LAA has a better lineup, but the tribe proved they could win a game in the series as they did last night against a better pitcher. Don't like asking them to win the series in LA, but the Angels have been giving series away all year to inferior teams.

quote
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#8
Posted: 8/15/2012 12:11:20 AM
Wednesday guesses:
MIA +130/7u20 hb
CHC -115 ng
COL -110/11 rp
SF +125/6.5u15 sL
PIT +130/7 kr
CIN -120/8u15 dL
ATL -200/7.5o20 vm
StL -185/8o20 sw
MIN +120/9o15 sd
SEA -115/6.5u15 hh
BAL -110/10.5u15 cg
NYY -130/9.5o20 fg
TOR +100/9.5o15 fr
KC +120/8.5 ms
LAA -135/8.5 hs

interests:
MIA under
COL over
SD ML
TB ML
TEX ML
KC ML

hopes:
MIA u7.5
COL o10
SD +200
TB +115
TEX +130
KC +140

plan to lean:
MIA u7
COL o10.5
SD +185
TB +105
TEX +120
KC +130

umpires:
PIT: BWelke (under)
NYY: Carapazza (neutral)
TOR: Wegner (neutral)
ATL: Baker (unknown, he's a new guy)
MIA: Fairchild (neutral)
CHC: Mooch (neutral)
MIN: Wolf (neutral to over)
COL: Blaser (neutral to over, but young)
LAA: Gibson (under)
SEA: Drake (over)
SF: Estabrook (neutral)

updated plan to leans:
COL o10.5: Blaser
SD +185: Baker
TB +105: Drake
TEX +120: Carapazza
KC +130: pending

leans (68-79 2H, 1-1 yesterday w/SF u6.5 & SEA pending):
Tb ML
Cle ML
Cin +104
Min +138
Bal o9.5: Everitt
Tor o8.5: Wegner
Tex u10.5: carapazza (hard to want an under after a SHO)

On the radar:
Tex +111
quote
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