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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: SJSharks - Saturday Bases
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#1
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:35:11 AM
Friday 4-0: The Yankees led wire 2 wire but were held in check for most of the game but were able to bust it open late for the ML and RL combo hit. The Braves got it done thanks to an early 2 run shot by Heyward taking advantage of an amped up rookie playing in his 1st start at home. Harvey has tremendous stuff and a very bright future for the Mets. In the Nats game, Stras pitched exactly how I thought he would which made very happy too see. Been just missing a perfect day several times lately, so it felt great to hit one. But it's time to put it behind me and focus on Saturday's slate.


53-30 Last 83
(63.8%)



30-13 Last 43
(69.7%)


I am not sure how long these 2 runs can last, but it's been pretty amazing. I decided to look into these last 83 plays on my excel spreadsheet too see the juiced involved and I was stoked too see that out of the last 83 bets, 78 of them (93%) were -135 and below with dogs as well. I knew it would be something like that because I try and never risk heavy juice, but it made me feel that much happier seeing it. I am stoked that all the hard work and hours that I have been putting in lately has paid off. Just gotta keep plugging away...



Season:
150-140-3
ML
: 82-75
RL: 24-14
Totals: 32-38-2
Props: 12-13-1


Saturday Bases


Braves ML (-101): This is a very interesting line to say the least but I simply cannot pass it up. The Braves will be sending reliever turned starter Kris Medlen to the hill. In his first 2 outings as a starter Medlen went 5 innings in both starts allowing 1 run in each. Medlen is 1-0 with a 1.74 era in his last 3 outings of work (2 as a starter, 1 as a reliever). He will be facing a Mets line up that ranks #7 against right handed pitching. However Medlen had pretty good success against the Mets biggest offensive threats. In fact he has owned David Wright who is 1-10 with 4 strike outs. Daniel Murphy is 1-5, Hairston is 2-5 and Ike Davis is 2-9. The rest of the Mets line have had very little if not any, experience vs Medlen. This of course will give Medlen the first few times going through the batting order. The Mets will be countering with Johan Santana who will be making his 1st start since returning from a 3 week DL stint. Prior to his DL placement to say Santana was struggling would be putting it lightly. In his last 3 outings Santana is 0-3 with a 13.39 era. 1 of those starts was against these Atlanta Braves. On July 15th the Braves lit Santana up for 6 runs on 8 hits and chased him in the 5th inning. The entire Braves line up have tons of experience and have seen Santana many times before. Ill be very curious too see if Reed Johnson is in the line up considering he is batting .516 (16-31) vs. Santana. I wouldn't pretend and try and ignore Santana's home #s this season where he has a 2.90 mark. But just like his fellow Mets teammates, I think Santana over achieved in the first half of the season. His last home start was a July 6th trashing at the hands of the Cubs who tagged him for 7 runs on 13 hits, and he was yanked in the 4th inning. His struggles in his last 3 outings have been because of a sky rocketing WHIP of 2.50, and surrendering 6 long balls. If he does anything remotely close to that in Saturday's game against the red hot Braves it could get ugly. It will be interesting too see which Santana shows up following his DL stint, but I think the chances are very good it won't be pretty for him. The Braves will have the huge advantage in terms of bullpen play and should they have the early lead, we could very well be on our way to a nice win at a great price.


Cardinals ML (+125): In this contest we have 2 starters who by their 2012 numbers are having pretty much the same season. The only difference is that Cliff Lee is a way bigger name in baseball then that off Jake Westbrook. If this was 2011 you wouldn't see me betting against an ace like Cliff Lee, however in the 2012 campaign he has been average pitcher at best. On the year he is 2-6 with a 3.78 era. He also has done worst at home this season then he has on the road. On the year he is 0-4 with a 4.53 era at home, compared to a 2-2 mark with a 3.21 era on the road. His struggles at home have been in large part due to him allowing 12 home runs in 57 innings off work, that works out to a home run in every 4 innings. He will be facing a Cardinals line up who ranks #1 in all of baseball against left handed pitching, if his home struggles and vulnerability to the long ball continues, it could be a very long day for Lee and the Phillies. On the other side of the hill for the Cardinals will be Jake Westbrook. On the year Westbrook is 11-8 with a 3.78 era. He era on the road has been slightly better at 3.58. He has coming off a 2 run 6 innings pitched performance against the Giants. In his last 3 outings he has an era of 4.74 but that is large part due to his recent outing in Colorado @ Coors field. I don't care what your name is, every pitcher struggles at Coors field. He has had strong outings in 4 of his last 6 starts. He will be facing a Phillies line up that ranks in the middle of the pack #14 overall against right handed pitching. But most of that was done prior to the Phillies blowing up their roster. In the last 7 games with a more accurate look at there line up, the Phillies are batting just .235 and rank #22. Both teams have seen the opposing teams starter plenty of times so familiarity factors shouldn't come into play in this one. In this game you based on 2012 performances, I honestly feel Lee and Westbrook are about even and you can view that as a wash. In the last 7 outings in terms of bullpen play the Cardinals rank #19, while the Phillies rank #29, again you can view that as a wash. This leaves you with offensive lines up, which obviously is a huge advantage for the Cardinals. I think the Cardinals will get to Lee and will have a big road win on Saturday. When breaking this game down, I like my chances of hitting a nice dog play. Let's hope it unfolds that way.



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#2
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:35:22 AM
Tigers (-136) It's not too often your able to get Justin Verlander at a reasonable price. One of those times you are is when the opponent is the Texas Rangers. Sure the Rangers are a good team, but this is a very bad spot for them. The Rangers will be countering with a struggling Derek Holland. The young south paw is 7-6 with a 5.07 era on the season. Those #s have been even worst in his last 3 outings where he is 1-1 with a 6.64 era. He has also struggled at home with a 3-4 mark and a 6.19 era. His last home start on July 31st against the Angels resulted in 6 runs, including 3 home runs in a short 5 inning outing. He will be facing a Tigers offense that has been scoring a ton lately. During the Tigers 8-1 run in there last 9 games, the have scored 63 runs, averaging 7 runs per game. In the last 6 games against lefties the Tigers are averaging 7.3 runs per game. This is a red hot offense going against a struggling pitcher who has been giving up a ton of home runs lately. Not exactly something looking too promising for Holland and the Rangers. The task of trying to keep up with the Tigers will be a very tough one for the Rangers going against Justin Verlander. He is coming off his most dominating outing of the year, which was a 14 strike out, 0 run, 8 inning ownage of a very good Yankees team. He will be eager to take the mound and try for an encore. In 10 career starts against the Rangers, Verlander is 7-2 with a 2.10 era. He has good #s vs the entire Texas Rangers line up... Josh Hamilton (4-14 with 7 strike outs) Adrian Beltre (9-32 with 6 strike outs) Elvis Andrus (3-13) Ian Kinsler (3-21 with 5 strike outs), Mike Napoli (3-15 with 5 strike outs) David Murphy (3-13 with 5 strike outs) and Nelson Cruz (1-12 with with 3 strike outs). The entire Rangers line up is batting below .300 vs Verlander. We all know that's somewhat to be expected with how good Verlander is, but it's still very impressive that he has that much success against the entire team, you would think at least 1 of the hitters would have some decent #s. On the year Texas would have the bullpen advantage, but in there last 7 games the Rangers ranking of #26 is actually 5 spots worst then the Tigers ranking of #21 in terms of bullpen production. I also feel good knowing Verlander will probably go his usual 7-8 innings. The Tigers will get to Holland early and will make the Rangers bullpen have extended work in this game. I usually don't like fading the Rangers in Arlington, but this is a great spot to do so.



I am very interested in what the MLB Grand Salami Total will be, I think they're are lots of games on the slate with low scoring potential. That will probably the only thing I might add to my card. I am avoiding individual game totals, because they haven't been to king to me as of late, but a blanket across them all is appealing depending on the number.


Best of Luck to everyone on Saturday... I will be spending most of it with a drink in hand
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#3
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:36:50 AM
time for some much needed sleep... see you guys later on
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#4
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:43:39 AM
Were always on the same plays. I was going to take the Cards but I don't like betting against Big Name pitchers like Lee because he could pitch a gem tonight.
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#5
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:48:33 AM
I apologize for all the spelling and grammar mistakes, I really should proofread before I hit submit. I blame lack of sleep
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#6
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:48:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

Were always on the same plays. I was going to take the Cards but I don't like betting against Big Name pitchers like Lee because he could pitch a gem tonight.



bol on saturday
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#7
Posted: 8/11/2012 5:04:39 AM
BOL! Want to play Wastebrook, but can't pull the trigger. What are your thoughts on Oakland tomorrow?
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#8
Posted: 8/11/2012 5:06:47 AM
Bol sharks 
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#9
Posted: 8/11/2012 5:09:15 AM
Keep rollin'! Good luck SJS!
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#10
Posted: 8/11/2012 5:46:13 AM
BOL SJSharks, keep it rollin'!! 
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#11
Posted: 8/11/2012 6:56:06 AM

Must be blood in the water boys..........Cuz the SHARK is circeling!!

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#12
Posted: 8/11/2012 6:58:23 AM
GL 
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#13
Posted: 8/11/2012 6:58:30 AM
Playa-Playa!  Great job on Friday!  Already had the Braves and Cards to start with but I'll roll with you on "I'm here for the Lobster".  My other play is... you probably already guessed it... Tillman at home versus KC.  Can I please get on the right side of the O's for once?  LOL.  I decided not to watch the games live for awhile as opposed to taking 1st 5 innings.  Just protecting myself from going on massive tilt.

BOL on Saturday.  Go get 'em boss!  
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#14
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:09:59 AM
Great work yesterday shark!  You nailed them!
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#15
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:24:14 AM
On my Braves again today I see. I will fill an open spot just for you. Good luck today, lets pound the book again today.
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#16
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:26:58 AM
Hey shark, what are your thoughts on playing the Yankees run line today?
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#17
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:02:42 AM
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#18
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:04:26 AM
Excellent write ups. Tailing.
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#19
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:09:45 AM
nice bounce back last night
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#20
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:10:13 AM
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#21
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:25:02 AM
Awesome write-ups! Thanks.
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#22
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:30:42 AM
Good Luck
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#23
Posted: 8/11/2012 8:46:27 AM
Shark greatly appreciate the work I use this site more as a tool and a public view of games but your a beast andhand to reach out and say thanks for your for help any thought on yanks in first game of day hate laying that juice ??
Posted using a mobile device.
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#24
Posted: 8/11/2012 9:01:13 AM
Nice run. Bol today 
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#25
Posted: 8/11/2012 9:03:05 AM
bol sharks
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