I know your getting value on the twins but, the Soxs on a 10 day 10 game home stand and I wouldn't fuck with them in this series IMO. It's a four game set followed by a 3 game set with Texas. They took 2 of 3 from Detroit and now you have Lester pitching game 1 who's numbers are bound to come down. A total play might be a better idea jmo!!.
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I know your getting value on the twins but, the Soxs on a 10 day 10 game home stand and I wouldn't fuck with them in this series IMO. It's a four game set followed by a 3 game set with Texas. They took 2 of 3 from Detroit and now you have Lester pitching game 1 who's numbers are bound to come down. A total play might be a better idea jmo!!.
What are you thoughts on Dempster pitching tonight? I'm following you on the Angels since they're on a hot streak but I'm curious to know about the pitchers.
Thanks!
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What are you thoughts on Dempster pitching tonight? I'm following you on the Angels since they're on a hot streak but I'm curious to know about the pitchers.
What are you thoughts on Dempster pitching tonight? I'm following you on the Angels since they're on a hot streak but I'm curious to know about the pitchers.
Thanks!
Even though Dempster is an unfamiliar arm coming over from the N.L., which should give him advantage, I have Wilson ahead on form because of his A.L. disadvantage, the DH, and the Angels offense matches up much better tonight against the righty Dempster than does the Rangers versus the lefty Wilson. Home field advantage I really can't see for Dempster or the Rangers as he has no familiarity with the mound or background and Wilson does, although the groundskeepers can help a little there, and they do when they can.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by Zacreth:
What are you thoughts on Dempster pitching tonight? I'm following you on the Angels since they're on a hot streak but I'm curious to know about the pitchers.
Thanks!
Even though Dempster is an unfamiliar arm coming over from the N.L., which should give him advantage, I have Wilson ahead on form because of his A.L. disadvantage, the DH, and the Angels offense matches up much better tonight against the righty Dempster than does the Rangers versus the lefty Wilson. Home field advantage I really can't see for Dempster or the Rangers as he has no familiarity with the mound or background and Wilson does, although the groundskeepers can help a little there, and they do when they can.
I know your getting value on the twins but, the Soxs on a 10 day 10 game home stand and I wouldn't fuck with them in this series IMO. It's a four game set followed by a 3 game set with Texas. They took 2 of 3 from Detroit and now you have Lester pitching game 1 who's numbers are bound to come down. A total play might be a better idea jmo!!.
The Sox are 53-52 overall and 27-29 at home, including 10-10 last 20 and 5-5 last 10. Do you really see some huge HFA in that record? That record to date would indicate a 5-5 home stand wouldn't it? The Twins are 21-28 on the road, including 9-11 last 20 and 3-7 last 10, but the last 10 includes Detroit (1), Texas (3) and the White Sox (3), all playing better ball than the Red Sox. Given those numbers the question is not whether to fuck with them, but when. They are not likely to sweep ten games on a home stand and when they do lose a dog like the Twins will pay some really nice bonus bucks. The 9 inning line at +169 pays 3.03 X a flat unit wager on the BoSox, and I don't think or compute the BoSox as likely to win this matchup 75% of the time. Do what you want, your money, your choice.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by hotshots23:
I know your getting value on the twins but, the Soxs on a 10 day 10 game home stand and I wouldn't fuck with them in this series IMO. It's a four game set followed by a 3 game set with Texas. They took 2 of 3 from Detroit and now you have Lester pitching game 1 who's numbers are bound to come down. A total play might be a better idea jmo!!.
The Sox are 53-52 overall and 27-29 at home, including 10-10 last 20 and 5-5 last 10. Do you really see some huge HFA in that record? That record to date would indicate a 5-5 home stand wouldn't it? The Twins are 21-28 on the road, including 9-11 last 20 and 3-7 last 10, but the last 10 includes Detroit (1), Texas (3) and the White Sox (3), all playing better ball than the Red Sox. Given those numbers the question is not whether to fuck with them, but when. They are not likely to sweep ten games on a home stand and when they do lose a dog like the Twins will pay some really nice bonus bucks. The 9 inning line at +169 pays 3.03 X a flat unit wager on the BoSox, and I don't think or compute the BoSox as likely to win this matchup 75% of the time. Do what you want, your money, your choice.
Even though Dempster is an unfamiliar arm coming over from the N.L., which should give him advantage, I have Wilson ahead on form because of his A.L. disadvantage, the DH, and the Angels offense matches up much better tonight against the righty Dempster than does the Rangers versus the lefty Wilson. Home field advantage I really can't see for Dempster or the Rangers as he has no familiarity with the mound or background and Wilson does, although the groundskeepers can help a little there, and they do when they can.
Thank you for your through analysis of the game... I can see where Angels are in a good spot for tonight.
BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Even though Dempster is an unfamiliar arm coming over from the N.L., which should give him advantage, I have Wilson ahead on form because of his A.L. disadvantage, the DH, and the Angels offense matches up much better tonight against the righty Dempster than does the Rangers versus the lefty Wilson. Home field advantage I really can't see for Dempster or the Rangers as he has no familiarity with the mound or background and Wilson does, although the groundskeepers can help a little there, and they do when they can.
Thank you for your through analysis of the game... I can see where Angels are in a good spot for tonight.
Well, my wife, mistress and girlfriend say it is quite large but, OOPS! That is not what you were asking is it?
Let me state this one more time, as I have many times in the past. A W-L record or "Units" in MLB is about the most irrelevant thing a poster can put up. I am not casting aspersions on the half dozen or so competent handicappers that post that way and are as honest as the day is long, but I assure you there are many in this forum fudging the record or playing 1 to 10 units in a wild way that merely confuses the true result. If I said a unit was 10 cents it would mean $10 per play. If I said it was $100 it would mean $1000 per play, but you would have no way of knowing if either was honest or correct, would you? Posting of tickets gets a little silly too. Anyone with a decent word processor can alter a copy of a ticket before posting.
The one and only method that matters is Return On Risk, and it is a fair question to ask of anyone. Are you making money or not? A handicapper that claims to be 6-4 is hitting 60%, but at an average lay of -150 he is breaking even. Big deal. No profit, why play?
I post my Return On Risk every single day and it can be tracked for honesty.
One last thing. I want to thank you for not jumping to the conclusion that 100 units per play means $100 per play. Some people that jumped to that conclusion or accepted it when others did have never bothered to ask the question you have. You don't know, and still wouldn't no matter what I said, but ROR cannot lie can it?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by hotshots23:
What's a unit for you????
Well, my wife, mistress and girlfriend say it is quite large but, OOPS! That is not what you were asking is it?
Let me state this one more time, as I have many times in the past. A W-L record or "Units" in MLB is about the most irrelevant thing a poster can put up. I am not casting aspersions on the half dozen or so competent handicappers that post that way and are as honest as the day is long, but I assure you there are many in this forum fudging the record or playing 1 to 10 units in a wild way that merely confuses the true result. If I said a unit was 10 cents it would mean $10 per play. If I said it was $100 it would mean $1000 per play, but you would have no way of knowing if either was honest or correct, would you? Posting of tickets gets a little silly too. Anyone with a decent word processor can alter a copy of a ticket before posting.
The one and only method that matters is Return On Risk, and it is a fair question to ask of anyone. Are you making money or not? A handicapper that claims to be 6-4 is hitting 60%, but at an average lay of -150 he is breaking even. Big deal. No profit, why play?
I post my Return On Risk every single day and it can be tracked for honesty.
One last thing. I want to thank you for not jumping to the conclusion that 100 units per play means $100 per play. Some people that jumped to that conclusion or accepted it when others did have never bothered to ask the question you have. You don't know, and still wouldn't no matter what I said, but ROR cannot lie can it?
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Not to hijack your thread Key
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