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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: (CIN/SD) Leake & Vottoless Reds -145??
zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#1 Posted: 7/30/2012 5:36:35 PM This has to be a JOKE. Yes, I know the Reds have been hot, but that changes tonight when their old buddy Edinson comes back to town! Leake is too big of a gas can to trust, and plus the Pads have been playing good ball. Saw them live the past 3 days in MIA, and they are a scrappy team who had an emotional extra innings loss yesterday. Volquez comes into this prime matchup against his old squad with A 3.30 era. His last time facing his old team he went 7 innings giving up 1 and striking out 10. Plus my favorite factor in capping this game; all the degenerates are still jumping on the Reds at 82% and price went from -155 to -140, shouldn't the spread be getting more expensive and going up? Doesn't make sense. San Diego +135 ($100-$135)
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BJaRz	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2409 Location: New York	#2 Posted: 7/30/2012 5:41:45 PM What if this 82% you speak of accounts for 5% of money and the other 18% accounts for 95% of money? And do you work for a sportsbook? How do you know accurate percentages?
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--phillyfan--	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Apr 2009 Posts: 12737 Location: United States	#3 Posted: 7/30/2012 5:44:49 PM i like the play.. Good Luck...
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#4 Posted: 7/30/2012 5:46:35 PM Looked @ multiple sports books and 80+ % on REDS in every sportsbook.
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BJaRz	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2409 Location: New York	#5 Posted: 7/30/2012 5:50:45 PM Again, is that 80% number of bets or money flow?
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#6 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:01:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BJaRz: Again, is that 80% number of bets or money flow? 80% number of bets on the Reds
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BJaRz	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2409 Location: New York	#7 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:04:59 PM So how would number of bets actually influence line movement?
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KeyElement	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Captain Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 7300 Location: Arizona	#8 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:06:48 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BJaRz: Again, is that 80% number of bets or money flow? Wake up, this has been addressed a thousand times in this forum. It is 80% of the bettors, people, not 80% of the money. If it were 80% of the money the line on the Reds would skyrocket. Unless, of course, you think lines are set to "trap" innocent bettors on one side because the books already know the winner and want to gamble against their customers.
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#9 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:07:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BJaRz: So how would number of bets actually influence line movement? I'm not arguing with you, if your on the Reds good luck sir
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BJaRz	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2409 Location: New York	#10 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:07:50 PM Key, I'm trying to get him to realize this...
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hammer22	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Captain Joined: Nov 2006 Posts: 9022 Location: Michigan	#11 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:10:07 PM Never predict when a streak is going to end. The Reds have won 10 in a row and are 14-2 since the break. This is the type of streak you ride till the end or pass, especially against the AAA Padres. Leake isnt as bad as you think his last start he pitched 8 innings only giving up 2 runs....with how hot this team is he could give up 5 and still not lose, you have balls betting against them that's for sure.
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#12 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:12:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by hammer22: Never predict when a streak is going to end. The Reds have won 10 in a row and are 14-2 since the break. This is the type of streak you ride till the end or pass, especially against the AAA Padres. Leake isnt as bad as you think his last start he pitched 8 innings only giving up 2 runs....with how hot this team is he could give up 5 and still not lose, you have balls betting against them that's for sure. Well that's too late now lol my bet ($100-$135) has already been placed. Good luck to u
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KktdocT	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Covers Rehab Joined: Jan 2006 Posts: 60701 Location: United Kingdom	#13 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:16:29 PM GL, mate.
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#14 Posted: 7/30/2012 6:18:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by KktdocT: GL, mate. Thanks brotha
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Jmt908	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 2117 Location: Maryland	#15 Posted: 7/30/2012 7:57:28 PM
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#16 Posted: 7/30/2012 8:05:02 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Jmt908: Way too early to celebrate, but I'll take 5-3 lead after being down 3-0. And now Leake is out for the game. SD should jump on this bullpen for a few more runs.
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cardifkill	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 2427 Location: California	#17 Posted: 7/30/2012 8:08:13 PM
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joshfactor	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2029 Location: New Jersey	#18 Posted: 7/30/2012 8:17:34 PM was tempted to play this myself. but got home at 6:45 from work & i dont make hasty plays. nice to see another capper who actually finds contrarian angles. good luck, hope you cash.
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#19 Posted: 7/30/2012 8:27:41 PM Appreacite the love guys! SD up 9-3 top 3rd lol man did Leake pitch exactly like I thought he would. Keep it up SD!! This is getting nasty
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Pai_Gow_Player	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Dec 2005 Posts: 8142 Location: California	#20 Posted: 7/30/2012 9:19:41 PM wish i saw this thread earlier... good stuff bro
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#21 Posted: 7/30/2012 9:23:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pai_Gow_Player: wish i saw this thread earlier... good stuff bro Appreacite it
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DanTos8715	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Captain Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 8438 Location: Michigan	#22 Posted: 7/30/2012 9:25:13 PM I would have to assume it is very rare that 82% of the bets would make up 18% of the money It would have to be some REAL REAL sharp play.
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BigJohnStud	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2011 Posts: 2070 Location: Hawaii	#23 Posted: 7/30/2012 9:27:24 PM
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#24 Posted: 7/30/2012 9:30:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DanTos8715: I would have to assume it is very rare that 82% of the bets would make up 18% of the money It would have to be some REAL REAL sharp play. Exactly! Buddy was trying to give me a hard time...oh well, glad to see the Padres taking care of business for me tonight
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zzitoo75	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2005 Posts: 2600 Location: Florida	#25 Posted: 7/30/2012 10:50:11 PM Game is in the books!! Great game SD! San Diego +135 ($100-$135)-
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