D.P.F. Daily Public Fade - 7/27/12 Edition

Question

Picked up another solid win yesterday fading the public on the Astros under. A.J. Burnett did what we thought he was capable of in tossing 7 shutout innings, but he did get rocked in the 8th for 2 jacks before getting pulled. Regardless, it wasn't that much of an offensive display as the Pirates did enough to hang onto a win and a cover (under + RL). Today I'm going to take a look at the Dodgers TT o3 (+120) and put that in my pocket. I think o3 at + money is a good price, regardless of who is pitching. In this case we have Matt Cain, but in a divisional game the Dodgers have seen enough of the guy to accurately scout him, they know what he's bringing to the table, and with the Dodgers at full strength I can see them getting enough guys on base to at least push this bet in a worst case situation. The Giants are probably a good bet as 74% home favorites this season, but it's way too much chalk. The Giants are also 53% on the over in Matt Cain starts, and I think asking this nasty Dodgers lineup, who at one point this year were the best in baseball, to put up 3 is a fairly priced wager with a decent success rate.

7/27 LA Dodgers TT o3 +120

7/26 Hou/Pitt under 8.5 *Win* (+100)

7/25 Boston +110 *Loss* (-100)

7/24 Cleveland +110 *Win* (+110)

7/23: KC Royals +180 *Loss* (-100)

7/22: LAA Angels EV *Win* (+100

rated91 · Answer

Picked up another solid win yesterday fading the public on the Astros under. A.J. Burnett did what we thought he was capable of in tossing 7 shutout innings, but he did get rocked in the 8th for 2 jacks before getting pulled. Regardless, it wasn't that much of an offensive display as the Pirates did enough to hang onto a win and a cover (under + RL). Today I'm going to take a look at the Dodgers TT o3 (+120) and put that in my pocket. I think o3 at + money is a good price, regardless of who is pitching. In this case we have Matt Cain, but in a divisional game the Dodgers have seen enough of the guy to accurately scout him, they know what he's bringing to the table, and with the Dodgers at full strength I can see them getting enough guys on base to at least push this bet in a worst case situation. The Giants are probably a good bet as 74% home favorites this season, but it's way too much chalk. The Giants are also 53% on the over in Matt Cain starts, and I think asking this nasty Dodgers lineup, who at one point this year were the best in baseball, to put up 3 is a fairly priced wager with a decent success rate.