Key's Version Of Money Ball - Friday 7/20

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Key's Version Of Money Ball - Friday 7/20
KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 7/19/2012 6:53:45 PM
Locking in early - These lines won't hold up
Full write tomorrow morning

Brewers +128 (Estrada / Bailey)  

Cubs +139 (Dempster / Lohse) 

BOL


72DAVE PM 72DAVE
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Posted: 7/19/2012 8:02:34 PM
Tonga PM Tonga
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Posted: 7/19/2012 8:43:35 PM

ELGALLO PM ELGALLO
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Posted: 7/19/2012 9:49:34 PM

 with those plays key

on them with u.
Omerta PM Omerta
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Posted: 7/19/2012 9:51:02 PM
looks like dempster will be pulled...
KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 7/19/2012 10:02:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Omerta:

looks like dempster will be pulled...
If so the bet will cancel and we will deal with it then.
Omerta PM Omerta
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Posted: 7/19/2012 10:04:56 PM
too bad you can't get an action bet
Getty3 PM Getty3
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Posted: 7/19/2012 10:06:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Omerta:

looks like dempster will be pulled...
Where's he going ? LA ?
Omerta PM Omerta
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Posted: 7/19/2012 10:09:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

Where's he going ? LA ?

Even if the deal doesn't get completed, I doubt Dempster makes his start.

From the Chicago Tribune

"Asencio was claimed off waivers from the Indians on June 1, posting a 3.07 ERA in 12 appearances. Triple-A Iowa also announced Casey Coleman was scratched from Friday's scheduled start. Coleman could be called up Friday if Germano doesn't make it to St. Louis."
Gordon Gekko PM Gordon Gekko
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Posted: 7/19/2012 10:57:40 PM
Absolutely can play action on this game...As I have with the expectation of Dempster not going tomorrow.
Gordon Gekko PM Gordon Gekko
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Posted: 7/19/2012 10:58:25 PM
Playing against the Cubs it should say..On Brewers as well at 126
dereksutton PM dereksutton
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Posted: 7/19/2012 11:10:21 PM
Brewers have hammered Bailey this year. Any idea if Braun will be in?
KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 7/20/2012 9:08:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Omerta:

too bad you can't get an action bet

TOUCH an action bet in baseball
No freaking way.
KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 7/20/2012 9:10:52 AM
That should read, "I wouldn't touch an action bet in baseball, no way."
JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 7/20/2012 12:52:38 PM
Key thought you might have been on the WS,is there any reason you dont like them?
Saw someone posted 80% were on the WS,find that hard to believe with the way Det.has been playing and Verlander going,just curious if your sheets have a lean on this game or does Verlander have a history of beating the WS.
GL tonight
mmac66 PM mmac66
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Posted: 7/20/2012 12:56:44 PM

Good luck tonight Key.........with you on Dempster, although it would surprise me if he startes based on the rumors........

 

 

dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 7/20/2012 12:58:00 PM
KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 7/20/2012 12:59:23 PM

Well, I didn’t post any sides or totals yesterday but did give some darn good advice if that counts for anything. I just posted in another thread I will be glad when the next month goes by so that the football mentality exits this forum and no longer wastes the time of serious baseball handicappers and “players”. I sincerely mean that. It happens every year. August sees a mass exodus of guys that want to bet NFL pre season and prepare for NCAA football. I say good riddance.

5 Inning Play

Brewers +110 (Estrada / Bailey)  

Not as good as we would like, and certainly not as good as the 9 inning line I locked in yesterday, but still the better side of this matchup. The Brewers are going to be a money maker down the stretch as the public has decided on their favorites and will support them at their home parks come Hell or high water. Estrada has a far better prospectus than Bailey at this point and the Brewers probable offensive production grades out better than the Reds. You know what that means. False favorite, the correct favorite is paying bonus bucks.

9 Inning Plays

Brewers +128 (Estrada / Bailey)  

Duh, see above.

Cubs +139 (Dempster / Lohse) 

Rumors are swirling about the possibility of Dempster being pulled and traded but we don’t bet rumors. This is a perfect example of why I never bet baseball without specifying pitchers. If something crazy happens and the books get to reset the lines they will take into account what bettors have done so far and will incorporate those dollars into the new odds, all of which works to their advantage, not yours. Here again, the public perception of the game is “the better team, at home” but that type of thinking is what creates lines, not beats them. My “outside the box” thinking says the better pitcher and hotter offense negates any perceived HFA and if strong enough even points to what in my opinion is the greatest advantage you can have when playing the odds “False Favorite”

Astros +168 (Norris / Cahill) 

This one does qualify as a value play as opposed to false favorite. Just because the Diamondbacks had one good game to save almost total embarrassment over their road trip does not mean they are going to return home and instantly become last year’s version of the Diamondbacks. At the moment the D-backs don’t know what kind of team they are going to be tomorrow, much less the balance of the season. Rumors are swirling like cyclones in that locker room and Justin Upton is not the only name involved. For a good many reasons I won’t go into, Norris versus Cahill is a wash, NBFD. So, in a game I project as very low scoring the dog becomes dangerous indeed.

Astros-Diamondbacks Under 9, -118 (Norris / Cahill) 

There is no reliable offense available for this game. The Astros don’t hit or score much and there is no good reason to think the D-backs have cured their offensive problems with two decent outings on the road. As I have said before “if it don’t get up, it don’t get out” and both chuckers have good GB;FB and HR ratios. Before you ask; it will be about 106 at game time and the roof will be closed, but that would not affect this pick in the slightest.

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post

5 Inning YTD: 57-73-14, -1155 9 Inning YTD: 111-100, +2,525 NET. +1,370 (+4.0% RoR)

KeyElement PM KeyElement
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Posted: 7/20/2012 1:04:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:

Key thought you might have been on the WS,is there any reason you dont like them?
Saw someone posted 80% were on the WS,find that hard to believe with the way Det.has been playing and Verlander going,just curious if your sheets have a lean on this game or does Verlander have a history of beating the WS.
GL tonight
I definitely project Verlander as the winner but my projection does not allow for Peavy as a value play. It just falls in that dangerous middle ground where I don't want anything to do with it.
Handicapper33 PM Handicapper33
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Posted: 7/20/2012 1:37:20 PM
where is this documented record I have yet to see one; I think the probabablity is it sucks thats about 100%
Handicapper33 PM Handicapper33
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Posted: 7/20/2012 1:40:53 PM
Oh my freaking god I just went to his space and in 2010 he said that his plays would be in Website Promotions and his HIGHLY REGARDED 5 inning and 9 inning plays. This has to be a freakin tout wannabe that cant hit 40% to save his life. Seriously post your daily record and ytd I cant wait to see this made up BS. My highly regarded fade material give me a break
cardifkill PM cardifkill
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Posted: 7/20/2012 1:54:06 PM
Good job Key. Keep up the good work.

j808worm PM j808worm
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Posted: 7/20/2012 2:30:40 PM
Hey Key, I tailed you the other week when you cashed on the grand salami under.  I don't place these types of bets often but I'm looking at the card and see another under today. Thoughts?
JMC1984 PM JMC1984
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Posted: 7/20/2012 3:34:56 PM

His record is listed there in plain sight, you dumb friggin piece of garbage. Hey, I have an idea. Instead of talking garbage to people with good records, why don't you try getting a friggin idea on how to bet?  You're one of the biggest friggin mushes I've seen on this site. You're straight fade material.  The fact that you talk garbage to ANYONE is laughable, but the fact that you're harassing a guy who is solid is just pathetic.

 

Go darn yourself.

 

Handicapper33

Handicapper33 PM Handicapper33
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Posted: 7/20/2012 3:44:05 PM

I totally forgot this is the joker that has over 350 plays in MLB where the odds are all over the place and after over 350 plays is up like $1300 bucks. Geezz and this guy actually acts like some expert. It just goes to show that people that think they can be on website promotions and all of that are not even hitting .500 when you factor in juice and everything else. Why people would even think about trailing this guy is hilarious. The numbers speak for themself.

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