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Good luck tonight Key.........with you on Dempster, although it would surprise me if he startes based on the rumors........

Well, I didn’t post any sides or totals yesterday but did give some darn good advice if that counts for anything. I just posted in another thread I will be glad when the next month goes by so that the football mentality exits this forum and no longer wastes the time of serious baseball handicappers and “players”. I sincerely mean that. It happens every year. August sees a mass exodus of guys that want to bet NFL pre season and prepare for NCAA football. I say good riddance.

5 Inning Play

Brewers +110 (Estrada / Bailey)  

Not as good as we would like, and certainly not as good as the 9 inning line I locked in yesterday, but still the better side of this matchup. The Brewers are going to be a money maker down the stretch as the public has decided on their favorites and will support them at their home parks come Hell or high water. Estrada has a far better prospectus than Bailey at this point and the Brewers probable offensive production grades out better than the Reds. You know what that means. False favorite, the correct favorite is paying bonus bucks.

9 Inning Plays

Brewers +128 (Estrada / Bailey)  

Duh, see above.

Cubs +139 (Dempster / Lohse) 

Rumors are swirling about the possibility of Dempster being pulled and traded but we don’t bet rumors. This is a perfect example of why I never bet baseball without specifying pitchers. If something crazy happens and the books get to reset the lines they will take into account what bettors have done so far and will incorporate those dollars into the new odds, all of which works to their advantage, not yours. Here again, the public perception of the game is “the better team, at home” but that type of thinking is what creates lines, not beats them. My “outside the box” thinking says the better pitcher and hotter offense negates any perceived HFA and if strong enough even points to what in my opinion is the greatest advantage you can have when playing the odds “False Favorite”

Astros +168 (Norris / Cahill) 

This one does qualify as a value play as opposed to false favorite. Just because the Diamondbacks had one good game to save almost total embarrassment over their road trip does not mean they are going to return home and instantly become last year’s version of the Diamondbacks. At the moment the D-backs don’t know what kind of team they are going to be tomorrow, much less the balance of the season. Rumors are swirling like cyclones in that locker room and Justin Upton is not the only name involved. For a good many reasons I won’t go into, Norris versus Cahill is a wash, NBFD. So, in a game I project as very low scoring the dog becomes dangerous indeed.

Astros-Diamondbacks Under 9, -118 (Norris / Cahill) 

There is no reliable offense available for this game. The Astros don’t hit or score much and there is no good reason to think the D-backs have cured their offensive problems with two decent outings on the road. As I have said before “if it don’t get up, it don’t get out” and both chuckers have good GB;FB and HR ratios. Before you ask; it will be about 106 at game time and the roof will be closed, but that would not affect this pick in the slightest.

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post

5 Inning YTD: 57-73-14, -1155 9 Inning YTD: 111-100, +2,525 NET. +1,370 (+4.0% RoR)

His record is listed there in plain sight, you dumb friggin piece of garbage. Hey, I have an idea. Instead of talking garbage to people with good records, why don't you try getting a friggin idea on how to bet?  You're one of the biggest friggin mushes I've seen on this site. You're straight fade material.  The fact that you talk garbage to ANYONE is laughable, but the fact that you're harassing a guy who is solid is just pathetic.

Go darn yourself.

Handicapper33