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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Late Sharp Money on KC
slowphenomenon send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/23/2012 12:19:16 PM
I was really liking wainwright and stl to get out of their road funk, the price is better but should the line movement scare me.
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#2
Posted: 6/23/2012 12:38:12 PM
Opinions?
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#3
Posted: 6/23/2012 12:55:00 PM
i love STL -145.......dont hesitate just pull the trigger.........i like MIA much better today , but also love wainwright in this spot! GL
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#4
Posted: 6/23/2012 12:59:04 PM
it dropped all the way to -127, heavy money going the other way considering the percentages
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#5
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:08:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

it dropped all the way to -127, heavy money going the other way considering the percentages
It should scare the crap out of you. Lines don't move like that because he public has suddenly fallen in love with the Royals. Deep pockets with serious intent move lines like that.
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#6
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:13:28 PM
down to -120
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#7
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:18:02 PM
Yeah I just saw that, I clicked Royals at +123 and by the time it went through it had dropped to +113 out of no where. Is someone not in the lineup for the Royals today?
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#8
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:18:46 PM
It doesn't mean they're right.
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#9
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:19:10 PM
Royals

1. Alex Gordon (L) LF
2. Yuniesky Betancourt (R) 2B
3. Billy Butler (R) DH
4. Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
5. Jeff Francoeur (R) RF
6. Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
7. Alcides Escobar (R) SS
8. Jarrod Dyson (L) CF
9. Humberto Quintero (R) C

Cardinals 

1. Rafael Furcal (S) SS
2. Jon Jay (L) CF
3. Matt Holliday (R) DH
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
5. Allen Craig (R) 1B
6. David Freese (R) 3B
7. Matt Carpenter (L) LF
8. Tony Cruz (R) C
9. Daniel Descalso (L) 2B
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#10
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:19:47 PM
of course it's not 100% but vegas shifted the entire market to attract more money on st.louis.
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#11
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:22:26 PM

Molina out of line -up (rest).  Cruz is taking his place and is hitting a buck something.  KC had 35 runners LOB last time they faced Wainright....(not all LOB when wainright was pitching), but still...thats a shitload.

STL. still has a decent line-up.  I ended up taking STL ML and KC TT 4.  I think the ball is going to jump in that park today.

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#12
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:22:50 PM
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#13
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:24:11 PM
Look at the line movement yesterday with Boston being pounded with coin....much greater skew and they tanked.
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#14
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:24:50 PM
Cruz is hitting .259 on the road, not the worst for an 8 spot hitter.
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#15
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:27:53 PM
STL has been soooo fickle of recent; however, I say that yesterday's hitting will carry over as contagious today.  And KC gets their runs, too....just less than STL 
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#16
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:29:01 PM
Bro, just cause it is perceived Sharp doesn't make it a winnnnnnnner
Posted using a mobile device.
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#17
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:29:52 PM
35 lob? That means they would of has today leaving bases loaded every inning
.might wanna check that again
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#18
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:31:26 PM
Just like stud pitcher Lucas Harrell, Jair Jurrjens and John Niese last night, Mendoza will probably come out and throw a gem today. I know he hasnt been that bad this year but his past is pretty scary. Seriously though I had leaned towards playing St Louis but I really don't like playing them without Molina behind the plate. Probably gonna stay off and watch the winner go by and play all my losers again as that has been my trend this week. Good luck to all
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#19
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:31:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

Cruz is hitting .259 on the road, not the worst for an 8 spot hitter.

But he's no Molina that can add the line-up pressure to the opposing pitcher....just saying. 

Anyway, goodluck and I remain as to not over cap this one.  I still  like STL.

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#20
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:38:37 PM

Grab em and decide... There are 15 games today Bud... Don't fret over ONE game.

No matter what the line is... I considered this almost a toss em game since KC is home BUT just decided to go with STL since to me they have a better ball club overall.

STL is bouncing back from a rough week and will have a good series vs KC.

I'll take STL's +58 Run Differential to KC's -33 anytime.

I like the Under 9.5 as well... especially since they combined for 15 runs yesterday.

My best Guesstimate is STL-4 KC-2... but I'm NOT playing the STL RL since KC has the last At Bat being at home and STL often burns me with ONE RUN wins when I play that RL with them.

I don't fret over line movements unless it's due to a pitching change or a major bat being out of the lineup.

Do you think someone is using a psychic and decided to dump a roll on KC because of what they said...??? Just messing with ya dude.  Go with what you know... as for me... I know STL is a better team than KC and I'd rather put my $$$ on the Cards bats and Wainwright than anything KC has to offer today.

BOL

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#21
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:39:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:

35 lob? That means they would of has today leaving bases loaded every inning
.might wanna check that again

Here you go Frank The Stat Bank.....lol.  I had to double check it myself.  Also, there was 31 K's in that game...that's horrid.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_06_17_kcamlb_slnmlb_1&mode=wrap#gid=2012_06_17_kcamlb_slnmlb_1&mode=box

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#22
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:42:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DrLump:

But he's no Molina that can add the line-up pressure to the opposing pitcher....just saying. 

Anyway, goodluck and I remain as to not over cap this one.  I still  like STL.

Molina also makes it tough on the running game. KC doesn't run a ton but they do have a couple guys capable of stealing bases. How many times this year have we seen walk, Stolen base, wild pitch and a sacrifice to score a run.cIn a close game that could be the difference.
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#23
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:43:59 PM
Cards as a NL team in a AL park are also getting that 9th batter(DH) which makes them an even better play IMO.
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#24
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:44:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:

Just like stud pitcher Lucas Harrell, Jair Jurrjens and John Niese last night, Mendoza will probably come out and throw a gem today. I know he hasnt been that bad this year but his past is pretty scary. Seriously though I had leaned towards playing St Louis but I really don't like playing them without Molina behind the plate. Probably gonna stay off and watch the winner go by and play all my losers again as that has been my trend this week. Good luck to all

 

That's so true regarding the game that we eventually decide to lay-off.  It's funny about how the bulk of gamblers always feel this way in lieu of turning to optimism (myself included)....all B/C of that small equalizer called the VIG!

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#25
Posted: 6/23/2012 1:44:52 PM
it was a 15 inning game. that's what people who question 35 LOB on base are forgetting, they were 2 for 16 with RISP, that is terrible this lineup is not clutch.
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