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si1ly |
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#1 Posted: 6/19/2012 5:31:37 PM '10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u '10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u '10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u '10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u '10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u '10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u '11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u '11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u '11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u '11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u '11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u '11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u '11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u '11-12 NBA-P: 20-20-1 (50.0%) -1.70u '11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
'11-12 MLB: 34-18-1 (65.4%) +12.07u
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si1ly |
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#2 Posted: 6/19/2012 5:32:01 PM
7:05 EST - Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
I hesitated on this line until the morning because I wasn't sure why the oddsmakers would set David Price as low as -140 against the Nationals. Price is a seasoned stud. He ranks #29 among all starting pitchers and has strong numbers across the board. The line wobbled between -135 and -145 for most of the day and the consensus shows a pretty even split. So it appears the oddsmakers did their do-diligence by setting the line where they did. Fortunately, I think this line grossly overvalues the Nationals. I guess they're a bit sensationalized with Harper and Strasberg emerging as stars. The reality is Washington is a poor offense ranked #24 in my power rankings scoring the #25th most runs per game. They bring to the mound one of the worst starting pitchers in the big leagues. Wang ranks #201 among 208 SP's - just horrible. My model projects a true line of -200. Rays have a huge advantage in SP and bullpen and they also have the better offense.
7:05 EST - Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians Under 10 (-120)
I grabbed this one when it peaked at 10 during the day. Even at 9.5 this was a strong lean, but the extra run of value is ultimately what sold me on this total. I know the Reds have one of the hottest offenses in the majors. I know both pitchers have an ERA greater than 5. Seems like an easy over. But both pitchers have advanced numbers that indicate some positive regression. Ultimately I rank Leake #91 and Tomlin #118 so they're both average to above average. Besides the SP's, Cinni has the #1 ranked bullpen to back up Leake. Cinci's offense has particularly been exploiting left-handed pitchers and they've recently moved into the #1 power ranking slot against south-paws. However, they're still struggling against righties, ranked #23 in the MLB. My model has this game projected at 7.38 total runs. With 11 needed to lose and 8 and 9 both winners, we have 3.62 runs of value off the losing number.
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utfootball4 |
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#3 Posted: 6/19/2012 5:33:45 PM |
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si1ly |
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#4 Posted: 6/19/2012 5:54:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:
Will the rays bats heat up?
Wang is horrible. I think they will. |
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eyemtlaw |
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#5 Posted: 6/19/2012 5:56:30 PM |
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si1ly |
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#6 Posted: 6/19/2012 6:04:23 PM |
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#7 Posted: 6/19/2012 6:06:13 PM 
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si1ly |
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#8 Posted: 6/19/2012 6:32:53 PM  |
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tinfoils |
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#9 Posted: 6/19/2012 6:36:41 PM  |
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#10 Posted: 6/19/2012 6:47:33 PM
Here's how they came up with the Rays/Nats line... it's the same way I make my projections... simple Power Rankings.
David Price was -150 a week ago at home against RA Dickey. Wang was +110 at home a couple starts ago against RA Dickey. Therefore, we have a 60 cent difference between the two.
Based off a neutral -105/-105 line then, Price would be -165 against Wang on a neutral field. Usually 15 to 20 cents is given to the home team for home field advantage... in cases like this where there is significant road chalk I usually use 25 cents. So take 25 cents off that -165 line and you have the -140/+130 line for Price.
In my opinion this line was spot on and a great job by the oddsmakers.
GL tonight si1ly. |
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si1ly |
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#11 Posted: 6/19/2012 7:16:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:
Here's how they came up with the Rays/Nats line... it's the same way I make my projections... simple Power Rankings.
David Price was -150 a week ago at home against RA Dickey. Wang was +110 at home a couple starts ago against RA Dickey. Therefore, we have a 60 cent difference between the two.
Based off a neutral -105/-105 line then, Price would be -165 against Wang on a neutral field. Usually 15 to 20 cents is given to the home team for home field advantage... in cases like this where there is significant road chalk I usually use 25 cents. So take 25 cents off that -165 line and you have the -140/+130 line for Price.
In my opinion this line was spot on and a great job by the oddsmakers.
GL tonight si1ly.
I follow your logic. Makes a good deal of sense. My only critique is that you're assuming the oddsmakers got the lines correct in the previous games you cited. What if those lines were wrong? What if Price has been consistently undervalued this year? What if Wang has been consistently overvalued? Using my statistics driven model, the Rays win this game 66.6% of the time translating to a -200 line. |
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EaZiii |
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#12 Posted: 6/19/2012 8:45:30 PM
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#13 Posted: 6/19/2012 8:50:39 PM  |
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#14 Posted: 6/19/2012 9:14:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by EaZiii:
Can you post your spreadsheet for the late night games.
they're all up there if you know where to look 
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Lar1212 |
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#15 Posted: 6/19/2012 9:27:12 PM  |
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#16 Posted: 6/19/2012 9:30:20 PM  |
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#17 Posted: 6/19/2012 9:48:53 PM |
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Tone10 |
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#18 Posted: 6/19/2012 9:51:46 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
I follow your logic. Makes a good deal of sense. My only critique is that you're assuming the oddsmakers got the lines correct in the previous games you cited. What if those lines were wrong? What if Price has been consistently undervalued this year? What if Wang has been consistently overvalued? Using my statistics driven model, the Rays win this game 66.6% of the time translating to a -200 line.
Absolutely a valid point... my opinion is at this point the oddsmakers have enough data to make the lines as sharp as possible.
This one looks like a nailbiter... GL |
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#19 Posted: 6/19/2012 10:52:34 PM |
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#20 Posted: 6/20/2012 12:03:07 AM |
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#21 Posted: 6/20/2012 12:05:01 AM  |
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si1ly |
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#22 Posted: 6/20/2012 12:10:11 AM  7:05 EST - Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians Under 10 (-120)
'11-12 MLB: 36-18-1 (66.6%) +14.07u
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nepatriots_12 |
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#23 Posted: 6/20/2012 12:22:21 AM
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#24 Posted: 6/20/2012 12:27:17 AM |
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si1ly |
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#25 Posted: 6/20/2012 12:28:30 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:
Damn. 3-0 for all plays today. Looks like the Heat aren't the only oneS on fire!!
I think I'm 8-0 last 8... hitting ~70% this month. |
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