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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: The history repeats + common sense MLB series chase system
robbypark send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/12/2012 3:06:43 AM
First and foremost this is a chase system meaning that we will be chasing each game in a series until we get a winner. We bet on game 1 which is the A game.  If we lose, we at least double the bet on the B game and so on so that if there is one win in the series you make a profit no matter what.  Once a game is won, the chase for that series ends.  Sometimes there is some heavy juice played but as long as we get a winner, it should be fine.  The plays are all ML plays only. Bet however much you feel is appropriate; I usually bet to win $100 on each play.

The way the system works is quite simple.  You are betting on the better team to win at least once in a series against an inferior team.  You use standings + a dosing of common sense as to who the better team is.  It's usually quite obvious. Three things I look at before choosing a series to bet on:

1) Previous history between teams.  I only bet if the superior team has never been swept by the other team in its past 5 series meetings.

2) Sometimes I ride a hot streak and sometimes I bet on a team to snap a cold streak because good wins usually end up getting it together.

I've decided to start this simply because using this analysis I had not lost a single series yet this year.  I then back-tested the past two years and saw that if I had used this to place bets from the month of June-onwards, there would have been over 100 wins and just ONE loss during that entire time.

Believe me if you want, doubt me if you want but I'm doing this for fun so let's see if it works and let's make big money. And yes, I know that chases can end up costing a lot of money if you lose. Thing is, I'm not planning on losing.


Series chases starting June 12th:

-San Francisco Giants

-Detroit Tigers

-Baltimore Orioles

-Texas Rangers

-Seattle Mariners
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#2
Posted: 6/12/2012 3:26:05 AM

Im not even going to read that.

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#3
Posted: 6/12/2012 3:38:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EastOakland:

Im not even going to read that.




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ShadowWarrior send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 6/12/2012 3:57:05 AM
See Semperfi and McShady's thread of chasing dogs.
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#5
Posted: 6/13/2012 3:23:38 AM
3-2 on A games for the day, not bad.

Tomorrow we've got two B games on Detroit and Seattle.
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#6
Posted: 6/13/2012 4:29:22 AM
split with NYY, LAA winning and Boston, Toronto losing on Mon.  Followed with Boston winning on Tuesday but Toronto losing again.  Started two more chases today with both losing Detroit and AZ.  So tomorrow a game three and two game twos.  Won't chase more than a three game series.  Following Semper/McShady template.
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#7
Posted: 6/14/2012 5:03:38 AM
B game with Detroit cashes in.  We have one C game in Seattle for today.  Hopefully it cashes.
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#8
Posted: 6/15/2012 5:29:35 AM
Looks like the first loss of the year because of those goddamn Mariners.  Record at 4-1 still, so not too terrible and hopefully that's the only loss on the year.
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#9
Posted: 6/15/2012 5:35:35 AM
Series chases starting tomorrow:

-Boston Red Sox

-Detroit Tigers

-Tampa Bay Rays

-Texas Rangers

-St. Louis Cardinals

-Los Angeles Angels
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#10
Posted: 6/17/2012 12:40:40 AM
A perfect 6-0 on this set of series.  Congrats to those who are tailing.

Record now at 10-1.
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#11
Posted: 6/17/2012 12:42:36 AM
robbypark 

hows things been brotha?


nice 6-0 set by the way
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#12
Posted: 6/17/2012 12:47:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

robbypark 

hows things been brotha?


nice 6-0 set by the way


Not too bad, trying to get some moola with this new system.  Up some units but hoping to be up a lot more. 
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#13
Posted: 6/17/2012 12:59:54 AM
I might have to start throwing down a few units on your system. 

When your system loses a C play, this costs you a fairly large amount, correct?
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#14
Posted: 6/17/2012 3:59:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

I might have to start throwing down a few units on your system. 

When your system loses a C play, this costs you a fairly large amount, correct?


Yes, it usually ends up costing about 4-5 regular units depending on the juice while each win profits you a unit.  As long as the system is winning 5-6 times before a single loss, it's pretty profitable. I actually fully expect the system to do even far better than this and I don't expect many more losses for the rest of the year. This system I believe is very profitable and has been backtested.  I guess we'll have to wait and see for sure but so far so good.
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#15
Posted: 6/17/2012 4:01:23 AM
With that said as well, it can end up costing much more than 5-6 units for a loss if the juice is steep.  Like I mentioned before though, I'm not expect very many losses if any the rest of the way.
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#16
Posted: 6/18/2012 1:19:27 AM
Record: 10-1

Series chases starting tomorrow:

-Chicago White Sox

-Arizona Diamondbacks

-Texas Rangers
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#17
Posted: 6/18/2012 1:45:55 AM
Let's get this chedda robby.

By the way, hows the mosquitos this year? I'm out in BC enjoying a pest-free life.
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#18
Posted: 6/18/2012 1:57:19 AM
"Congrats to those who are tailing"

Lol, what a large crowd that must be
Posted using a mobile device.
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#19
Posted: 6/18/2012 2:04:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

"Congrats to those who are tailing"

Lol, what a large crowd that must be

Hey man, it takes a real degenerate fool to run around thread to thread bashing everyone.

robbypark is not some retard, the dude deals in cold hard cash and isn't scared to throw down on a bet he is confident in.


--also robby, looking at the games, how come the LA Angels don't qualify? 
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#20
Posted: 6/18/2012 2:32:43 AM
The mosquitos are starting to get annoying as hell but still not too bad.  Have you ever been down to Saskatoon before?

The Angels aren't play a play because the compiled win-loss record of both teams over the last 3 seasons is too close.
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#21
Posted: 6/18/2012 2:58:53 AM
With you on TX and AZ but not on ChiSox, on LAA instead.  Cain is tough, but I am hoping Angels can win at least one.  Jerome W. is from Hawaii so I will back him here.  7 - 1 series record thus far, only Toronto getting swept.  I like this system cause it keeps from straying on too many games.  I have a more narrow focus
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#22
Posted: 6/18/2012 3:04:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

With you on TX and AZ but not on ChiSox, on LAA instead.  Cain is tough, but I am hoping Angels can win at least one.  Jerome W. is from Hawaii so I will back him here.  7 - 1 series record thus far, only Toronto getting swept.  I like this system cause it keeps from straying on too many games.  I have a more narrow focus


Good luck bro
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#23
Posted: 6/18/2012 3:25:12 AM
You're making way too many plays. One bad day can sink you if you aren't careful. 
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#24
Posted: 6/19/2012 1:01:51 AM
2-1 on A games for the day, not bad at all.

One B game coming up tomorrow on the White Sox.
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#25
Posted: 6/19/2012 1:20:05 AM
Record: 12-1, 1 pending


Series chases + plays for tomorrow:

-Boston Red Sox

-Philadelphia Phillies

-Chicago White Sox "B" game

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