Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 13-15-1 (47.8%) -2.40u
8:10 EST - Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies (-115)
Standard metrics suggest that both of these pitchers are gas cans but that's not really true. Both pitchers have advanced ERA-scaled predictor metrics that suggest their ERA's will improve in the near term. Unfortunately for the Astros, this isn't likely to happen for Jordan Lyles against the Rockies in Coors field. Lyles ranks last in the MLB against left-handed batters and the Rockies have a number of potent south paw or switch hitters. Colorado actually ranks 7th offensively against righties. He's also been vulnerable to giving up home runs with a very high HR/FB ratio at 25%. Coors field obviously is one of the most home run friendly ball parks in the majors and the Rockies are ranked 7th in the MLB hitting for extra base hits at .170. Unlike Lyles, Alex White can improve tonight since Houston ranks #21 offensively against right handers and is #22 in power hitting. He has the 15th highest GB/FB ratio in the majors which should keep the ball in the park as well. The Rockies also have the better bullpen. All-in-all, Colorado is the home team with the better pitcher, relievers and offense. My model predicts a 66% winning percentage which translates to a true line of -200. They have excellent value at anything better than -150. My local foolishly has set the game at -115, but I'm seeing it at -135 to -140 on the offshores. I'm posting the line I took, but I'd say they're a good bet at any of the lines currently available.
5/28 - HOU@COL GM 2
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