1:35 EST - Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7.5 (-110)
McDonald has elite numbers all across the board and Arroyo is a solid 2-man in any rotation. His efficiency with strikeouts to walks is sick this season. Both pitchers are right handed and both teams have struggled mightly against righties ranked #26 and #30 in the majors. Cincinnati has the 2nd ranked bullpen and Pittsburgh is above average at #12. Pittsburgh's park slightly favors the pitcher as well. Runs will be at a premium in this day game as my model projects a ridiculously low 4.9 runs. With 8 needed to lose, we have 3.1 runs of value.
5/28 - CIN@PIT.pdf
2:10 EST - Minnesota Twins (-125)
Scott Diamond has had some nasty stuff this year and his advanced numbers indicate that it hasn't been a fluke. He's my 8th ranked starting pitcher in the MLB. Compare that to Travis Blackley who is a reliever that has been in and out of the majors on different teams for years. He's making his first start in 5 years! Minnesota's offense has been stagnant at times this season but they're significantly better against lefties (Blackley is a south paw). The Twinkies may not win often, but today my model projects them to have a 64% chance to take down the A's. This means a true line on this game is -190. Of course oddsmakers would never set a team with a 33% winning percentage at -190 so I'll gladly take advantage of this short home line with an elite pitcher on the mound.
5/28 - OAK@MIN.pdf
3:10 EST - First 5 Innings - Chicago White Sox (-110)
I'm only playing the first 5 on this game because Sale is a young reliever and he hasn't proven himself when the pitch count climbs. He has great numbers on the season and compared to Matt Moore it's really no contest (Sale ranks #15 and Moore #130). With that said, the White Sox have a horrible bullpen ranked #27 and Tampa is much better in that department at #7. They also have an advantage in hitting splits against lefties (both pitchers are lefties). This is not a particularly strong play for these reasons, but since Sale is from Florida and the Rays haven't had too many AB's against him, I think he can put the White Sox on top in the first half at least.
5/28 - CHW@TBR.pdf
5:05 EST - First 5 Innings - Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
San Francisco had to travel from Miami yesterday afternoon where they just finished a 7 game roadie in 7 days against the Brewers and then the Marlins. Meanwhile, Arizona was at home on the west coast during that span. Zona might be a little bit more "fresh" to start this game. Cahil and Zito might look like an even match on paper when it comes to the standard metrics, but it's clear that Cahil has the advantage when it comes to SABRmetrics. His predictor ERA-Scaled numbers indicate his ERA should stay in the mid 3's whereas Zito's numbers predict a trend north towards 5 in the future. Arizona is also hitting lefties much better on the season. They are ranked #11 against lefties (like Zito) compared to #19 against righties. They are at a disadvantage when it comes to bullpen as the Giants are backed by the fourth ranked pen (although they used a lot of their studs in the close games they played in Miami). The biggest give away in this game is the line. Two evenly matched pitchers on paper yet Arizona opens as -130 road favorites? Vegas is telling us something, and I'm listening. I feel more comfortable with the first 5 though so I'm just sticking with that. Zona strikes first in SF.
5/28 - ARI@SFG.pdf
0
1:35 EST - Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7.5 (-110)
McDonald has elite numbers all across the board and Arroyo is a solid 2-man in any rotation. His efficiency with strikeouts to walks is sick this season. Both pitchers are right handed and both teams have struggled mightly against righties ranked #26 and #30 in the majors. Cincinnati has the 2nd ranked bullpen and Pittsburgh is above average at #12. Pittsburgh's park slightly favors the pitcher as well. Runs will be at a premium in this day game as my model projects a ridiculously low 4.9 runs. With 8 needed to lose, we have 3.1 runs of value.
5/28 - CIN@PIT.pdf
2:10 EST - Minnesota Twins (-125)
Scott Diamond has had some nasty stuff this year and his advanced numbers indicate that it hasn't been a fluke. He's my 8th ranked starting pitcher in the MLB. Compare that to Travis Blackley who is a reliever that has been in and out of the majors on different teams for years. He's making his first start in 5 years! Minnesota's offense has been stagnant at times this season but they're significantly better against lefties (Blackley is a south paw). The Twinkies may not win often, but today my model projects them to have a 64% chance to take down the A's. This means a true line on this game is -190. Of course oddsmakers would never set a team with a 33% winning percentage at -190 so I'll gladly take advantage of this short home line with an elite pitcher on the mound.
5/28 - OAK@MIN.pdf
3:10 EST - First 5 Innings - Chicago White Sox (-110)
I'm only playing the first 5 on this game because Sale is a young reliever and he hasn't proven himself when the pitch count climbs. He has great numbers on the season and compared to Matt Moore it's really no contest (Sale ranks #15 and Moore #130). With that said, the White Sox have a horrible bullpen ranked #27 and Tampa is much better in that department at #7. They also have an advantage in hitting splits against lefties (both pitchers are lefties). This is not a particularly strong play for these reasons, but since Sale is from Florida and the Rays haven't had too many AB's against him, I think he can put the White Sox on top in the first half at least.
5/28 - CHW@TBR.pdf
5:05 EST - First 5 Innings - Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
San Francisco had to travel from Miami yesterday afternoon where they just finished a 7 game roadie in 7 days against the Brewers and then the Marlins. Meanwhile, Arizona was at home on the west coast during that span. Zona might be a little bit more "fresh" to start this game. Cahil and Zito might look like an even match on paper when it comes to the standard metrics, but it's clear that Cahil has the advantage when it comes to SABRmetrics. His predictor ERA-Scaled numbers indicate his ERA should stay in the mid 3's whereas Zito's numbers predict a trend north towards 5 in the future. Arizona is also hitting lefties much better on the season. They are ranked #11 against lefties (like Zito) compared to #19 against righties. They are at a disadvantage when it comes to bullpen as the Giants are backed by the fourth ranked pen (although they used a lot of their studs in the close games they played in Miami). The biggest give away in this game is the line. Two evenly matched pitchers on paper yet Arizona opens as -130 road favorites? Vegas is telling us something, and I'm listening. I feel more comfortable with the first 5 though so I'm just sticking with that. Zona strikes first in SF.
Si1ly, what do you think about Texas on the RL today? If they put up some runs early, I just don't see that enemic Seattle offense being able to respond.
Good luck today!
0
Si1ly, what do you think about Texas on the RL today? If they put up some runs early, I just don't see that enemic Seattle offense being able to respond.
Si1ly, what do you think about Texas on the RL today? If they put up some runs early, I just don't see that enemic Seattle offense being able to respond.
Good luck today!
I agree, but I don't see much value on that bet. I think oddsmakers set the line dead on. The line you'll be getting on the RL is a pretty good reflection of the true chances that Texas wins by 2 or more. Might be a good bet today, but I think if you made this bet 100 times you'd end up losing the juice in the end.
0
Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:
Si1ly, what do you think about Texas on the RL today? If they put up some runs early, I just don't see that enemic Seattle offense being able to respond.
Good luck today!
I agree, but I don't see much value on that bet. I think oddsmakers set the line dead on. The line you'll be getting on the RL is a pretty good reflection of the true chances that Texas wins by 2 or more. Might be a good bet today, but I think if you made this bet 100 times you'd end up losing the juice in the end.
Why don't you take SEA 1st 5 with Millwood on his scoreless streak ????
I don't care about streaks. And Because I think Matt Harrison is a better pitcher anyways. Obviously Texas has the better offense too. This line looks accurate to me. Not worth action on either side.
8:05 EST - SEA@TEX.pdf
0
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:
Why don't you take SEA 1st 5 with Millwood on his scoreless streak ????
I don't care about streaks. And Because I think Matt Harrison is a better pitcher anyways. Obviously Texas has the better offense too. This line looks accurate to me. Not worth action on either side.
I was eyeing that under in Pitt too. Went with the Reds instead though. Now im wishing I had gone with my first instinct. Great work as usual my friend and bol
0
I was eyeing that under in Pitt too. Went with the Reds instead though. Now im wishing I had gone with my first instinct. Great work as usual my friend and bol
Sox lose the first 5... Sale pitching great with 9 k's in 4 innings of work but Moore allowing only 2 hits with 6 K's himself. I thought he would be good for at least 1 or 2 runs, but he's throwing very well.
0
Sox lose the first 5... Sale pitching great with 9 k's in 4 innings of work but Moore allowing only 2 hits with 6 K's himself. I thought he would be good for at least 1 or 2 runs, but he's throwing very well.
Meanwhile, CIN@PIT stays under with 5 total runs scored. Right on the SABRmetric prediction of 4.87. 1-1 to start the day. Twinkies tied 3-3 with the Athletics and Zona set to start in about an hour.
0
Meanwhile, CIN@PIT stays under with 5 total runs scored. Right on the SABRmetric prediction of 4.87. 1-1 to start the day. Twinkies tied 3-3 with the Athletics and Zona set to start in about an hour.
Meanwhile, CIN@PIT stays under with 5 total runs scored. Right on the SABRmetric prediction of 4.87. 1-1 to start the day. Twinkies tied 3-3 with the Athletics and Zona set to start in about an hour.
Let's go Twinkies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Meanwhile, CIN@PIT stays under with 5 total runs scored. Right on the SABRmetric prediction of 4.87. 1-1 to start the day. Twinkies tied 3-3 with the Athletics and Zona set to start in about an hour.
and just like that the wsox take the lead in the top of the sixth....
that shit always happens...
That's alright. Sale's numbers skyrocket in the second half of games and TB has a big advantage in bullpen and total hitting. I still think the first 5 was the better bet. Chicago screwed up converting a pick-off and that was the only run of the game for TB. And Moore pitched phenomenally. Such is baseball.
0
Quote Originally Posted by cpsn:
and just like that the wsox take the lead in the top of the sixth....
that shit always happens...
That's alright. Sale's numbers skyrocket in the second half of games and TB has a big advantage in bullpen and total hitting. I still think the first 5 was the better bet. Chicago screwed up converting a pick-off and that was the only run of the game for TB. And Moore pitched phenomenally. Such is baseball.
No Hamilton for Texas, how does the saber adjust for that and what side and total
Not sure, my numbers are based on season averages not individual line-ups. Obviously Texas' overall hitting will suffer a little bit. Adjust the Texas win% and total down a smidge. Beyond that, there isn't anything concrete I can tell you.
0
Quote Originally Posted by hoopsvader:
No Hamilton for Texas, how does the saber adjust for that and what side and total
Not sure, my numbers are based on season averages not individual line-ups. Obviously Texas' overall hitting will suffer a little bit. Adjust the Texas win% and total down a smidge. Beyond that, there isn't anything concrete I can tell you.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
