The most comprehensive single-page advanced statistical MLB game breakdown on the internet. Also includes a proprietary game prediction model to determine value against the spread and total. What would have taken you hours of web research to compile and compare all this advanced data, you can now view, download and print each game on a single 8.5x11 page for free in a matter of minutes. This will change the way you handicap baseball.
Memorial Day - MLB Game Breakdowns
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The most comprehensive single-page advanced statistical MLB game breakdown on the internet. Also includes a proprietary game prediction model to determine value against the spread and total. What would have taken you hours of web research to compile and compare all this advanced data, you can now view, download and print each game on a single 8.5x11 page for free in a matter of minutes. This will change the way you handicap baseball.
Only in the MLB can you have a day with 16 games between 30 teams! Gamblers paradise, but also a research nightmare. Well rest easy my friends. These sheets do the research for you. Go place your bets and I'll see you at the ticket window collecting your profits.
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Only in the MLB can you have a day with 16 games between 30 teams! Gamblers paradise, but also a research nightmare. Well rest easy my friends. These sheets do the research for you. Go place your bets and I'll see you at the ticket window collecting your profits.
wow, you do or get this everyday? Impressive. It is showing Fister pitching for the Twins though.
Thanks for pointing that out. I do these myself so I'm prone to human error. I've already corrected the mistake - just refresh the page. The stats are all automatically downloaded from various web sources each day so there shouldn't be any typos with the numbers or rankings. Although they're a day behind since I downloaded the most recent data set tonight.
I will try and post these breakdowns daily. I'm just one man and I have a career and wife that come first, so some days I won't be able to do these. Takes between 1-2 hours depending on how many games there are on the card to run the sheets, publish them online and post the link here on covers.
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Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:
wow, you do or get this everyday? Impressive. It is showing Fister pitching for the Twins though.
Thanks for pointing that out. I do these myself so I'm prone to human error. I've already corrected the mistake - just refresh the page. The stats are all automatically downloaded from various web sources each day so there shouldn't be any typos with the numbers or rankings. Although they're a day behind since I downloaded the most recent data set tonight.
I will try and post these breakdowns daily. I'm just one man and I have a career and wife that come first, so some days I won't be able to do these. Takes between 1-2 hours depending on how many games there are on the card to run the sheets, publish them online and post the link here on covers.
thanks man. anything key i should be looking at when i look at these? love the stats but just trying to figure out the most efficient way to decipher them. thanks again.
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thanks man. anything key i should be looking at when i look at these? love the stats but just trying to figure out the most efficient way to decipher them. thanks again.
There are 8 plays I like tomorrow. Very unlikely that I play more than 5-6 of them. But it's memorial day and I'm off of work so maybe a full day of baseball, beer and betting is in order! I'll post my official plays tomorrow morning. Most likely STL and WAS from the lean list. Might play the rest.
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There are 8 plays I like tomorrow. Very unlikely that I play more than 5-6 of them. But it's memorial day and I'm off of work so maybe a full day of baseball, beer and betting is in order! I'll post my official plays tomorrow morning. Most likely STL and WAS from the lean list. Might play the rest.
thanks man. anything key i should be looking at when i look at these? love the stats but just trying to figure out the most efficient way to decipher them. thanks again.
Obviously the most important numbers are the projected win percentages versus the extrapolated win percentages from the Vegas lines and the projected total (found at the very top of the page).
The power rankings will help you get a general idea of who is better in what areas. Pitching (L/R), Hitting (L/R), Fielding and Bullpen
The major pitching metrics I like are SIERA, xFIP (both predictors of future performance) compared to EAR and FIP which are more representational of past performance.
K/9 and K/BB numbers will tell you how efficient a pitcher is at striking out batters and you can compare that to K% and B% under team batting to see how the team they're facing ranks in those categories.
ISO is a measure of power hitting
UBR is a measure of base running skill (can tell you who has the edge in tight games where there aren't expected to be many baserunners).
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Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:
thanks man. anything key i should be looking at when i look at these? love the stats but just trying to figure out the most efficient way to decipher them. thanks again.
Obviously the most important numbers are the projected win percentages versus the extrapolated win percentages from the Vegas lines and the projected total (found at the very top of the page).
The power rankings will help you get a general idea of who is better in what areas. Pitching (L/R), Hitting (L/R), Fielding and Bullpen
The major pitching metrics I like are SIERA, xFIP (both predictors of future performance) compared to EAR and FIP which are more representational of past performance.
K/9 and K/BB numbers will tell you how efficient a pitcher is at striking out batters and you can compare that to K% and B% under team batting to see how the team they're facing ranks in those categories.
ISO is a measure of power hitting
UBR is a measure of base running skill (can tell you who has the edge in tight games where there aren't expected to be many baserunners).
SABRmetrics is full of useful stats and there's certainly more out there than I have put on these pages. But I'm trying to give a complete picture of the game without being overwhelming with the amount of information. These are the stats that I look at when handicapping a game, and I've just found a way to present them in an easy to compare format and fit them all on a single page.
Use the sheets however you want, they're meant to be a time saving tool so you don't have to spend hours clicking through stat sites on the internet only to forget what you looked at earlier. This puts it all right in front of you. You can decide what metrics are important to your handicapping. Personally, I think they all are. But sometimes less is more. Have fun with it and you'll quickly learn how to use these sheets most effectively to help you win money.
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SABRmetrics is full of useful stats and there's certainly more out there than I have put on these pages. But I'm trying to give a complete picture of the game without being overwhelming with the amount of information. These are the stats that I look at when handicapping a game, and I've just found a way to present them in an easy to compare format and fit them all on a single page.
Use the sheets however you want, they're meant to be a time saving tool so you don't have to spend hours clicking through stat sites on the internet only to forget what you looked at earlier. This puts it all right in front of you. You can decide what metrics are important to your handicapping. Personally, I think they all are. But sometimes less is more. Have fun with it and you'll quickly learn how to use these sheets most effectively to help you win money.
I dont see the Nationals beating the Marlins on the road after a national night game like tonight was that taken into account?
No. Situational angles are not factored into these projections. Neither is weather or home plate umpire. They're purely a reflection of the advanced data available. The intangibles you have to handicap for yourself unfortunately. I don't presume to know everything so I can only translate and intemperate the data.. nothing more, nothing less.
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Quote Originally Posted by arrowheadpride:
I dont see the Nationals beating the Marlins on the road after a national night game like tonight was that taken into account?
No. Situational angles are not factored into these projections. Neither is weather or home plate umpire. They're purely a reflection of the advanced data available. The intangibles you have to handicap for yourself unfortunately. I don't presume to know everything so I can only translate and intemperate the data.. nothing more, nothing less.
This game will be at 7 by noon tomorrow. Get it while you can.
2:10 EST - MIN (-125)
Even bad teams win 40% of the time. Tomorrow I think MIN wins 64% of the time. They should be -190.. I'll take 65 cents on the dollar of value thank you.
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Locked in two early bets:
1:35 EST - CIN@PIT Under 7.5 (-115)
This game will be at 7 by noon tomorrow. Get it while you can.
2:10 EST - MIN (-125)
Even bad teams win 40% of the time. Tomorrow I think MIN wins 64% of the time. They should be -190.. I'll take 65 cents on the dollar of value thank you.
CHW First 5 is the next bet I will likely lock in. Waiting on the first 5 lines to be released. Chris Sale may be young and not used to pitching as a starter in the majors, but his numbers this year are head and shoulders above Moore's. He grew up in Florida so he should be comfortable pitching in Tampa. Added bonus that nobody on Tampa has seen him for many AB's... I think he can get through 5 innings with the lead. White Sox bullpen is suspect, and Sale's efficiency deep into his pitch count is untested so he's not worth a full game wager.
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CHW First 5 is the next bet I will likely lock in. Waiting on the first 5 lines to be released. Chris Sale may be young and not used to pitching as a starter in the majors, but his numbers this year are head and shoulders above Moore's. He grew up in Florida so he should be comfortable pitching in Tampa. Added bonus that nobody on Tampa has seen him for many AB's... I think he can get through 5 innings with the lead. White Sox bullpen is suspect, and Sale's efficiency deep into his pitch count is untested so he's not worth a full game wager.
Your write-ups for the NBA playoffs round by round were excellent. Predictions for series have been right on! Hopefully it will translate to success here for MLB. Have an enjoyable Memorial Day! God Bless America!
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Your write-ups for the NBA playoffs round by round were excellent. Predictions for series have been right on! Hopefully it will translate to success here for MLB. Have an enjoyable Memorial Day! God Bless America!
Damn Si1ly, you have really outdone yourself with these game breakdowns. Huge kudo's to you!
For me, this beats the hell out of plugging data from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet I have put together. Just beginning with some of the SABRmetrics stuff so this is an invaluable tool for me. Can't thank you enough!
Best of luck with the rest of the season my friend. You are one of the classiest people on the Covers forums!
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Damn Si1ly, you have really outdone yourself with these game breakdowns. Huge kudo's to you!
For me, this beats the hell out of plugging data from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet I have put together. Just beginning with some of the SABRmetrics stuff so this is an invaluable tool for me. Can't thank you enough!
Best of luck with the rest of the season my friend. You are one of the classiest people on the Covers forums!
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