YTD 80-69 +26.18
CLV (Closing Line Value): +18.24
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +7.92
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Coming off a solid 2-0 night, hitting a +160 underdog (Rockies) and a -125 favorite (Rangers). Seemed like I was the only one on Texas yesterday, which shocked me since it was a cheap price to back the Rangers at home.
Large card for today. As always, these were bet at the open after BetOnline posted numbers in the afternoon and were posted in my Friday thread.
Saturday 5/26
954 Atlanta Braves +130
957 Chicago Cubs +120
961 Colorado Rockies +135
963 Houston Astros +140
977 Tampa Bay Rays +120
979 Los Angeles Angels +140
Getting the Braves at home at that price is almost an auto-bet for me. Take a look at Mike Minor's xFip, he hasn't been as bad as he's looked on the surface. Yes, it is Strasburg, but again to get the Braves at home at that price was too good to pass up. Current line is around +110 now.
Kevin Correia laying -130 is laughable. Couldn't hit submit fast enough on Cubs +120. Current line is around +110 now.
Not sure why Mike Leake is laying -145 here. Guthrie and the Rockies are nothing special, but I feel like Leake is being overvauled here after stringing together a couple good start. I'll take a shot fading him at this price. This line has not really moved yet.
A -150/+140 line for Astros-Dodgers is the line you would see if Matt Kemp were in the lineup for the Dodgers. He makes such a difference for them. The reality here is that I'm getting the better pitcher in this matchup, and there really isn't that much difference in the lineups. That opening line to me was ridiculous. Current line is now +110.
Josh Beckett is not 10 cents better than David Price, which is what the -130/+120 opening line was telling me. Rather, this is an even matchup, and in fact I had the Red Sox only slightly favored in this one (my projected line was -110/+100 Boston). Current line is now +110.
Huge pitching advantage for the Mariners, but at the same time huge lineup advantage for the Angels. The -150/+140 opener tells me if this game were in LA the Mariners would be laying -110 road chalk, which seems ludicrous. In reality, the Angels would be slightly favored if this game were in LA (they would probably be around -110 or so). I had this game pegged at -130/+120, which is where it currently sits.
Looks like I got some great numbers as of now. Just need these to cash. Good luck today everybody.
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