Posted:
#1
Yesterday: (3-6-1) -2.9287
Week 4: (24-36) -4.0083
YTD: (110-156) -14.6957
Week 1: (25-31) -3.2121
Week 2: (33-47) -0.7825
Week 3: (29-41) -6.6928
ML: (35-44) -8.147
RL: (10-17) -1.7939
Totals: (21-19) -0.1917
Team Totals: (4-6) -1.8229
Parlay: (12-35) -0.8575
First inning: (19-26) -2.9877
Props: (2-2) +0.45
Hammer (2U+): (7-5) +0.655
Had another losing day yesterday, with picks that looked very solid from my viewpoint. It made me think about how far I could be up if only I had the balls to fade my own picks from the start. 156-110 overall would be a pretty good record.
I have done the right things in avoiding the road chalk, avoiding picking teams in a losing trend, trying to find the value in the dogs, etc. Clearly that's not working. I do play parlays, but have lost less than a unit on them so far, so that's not the main thing that's affecting me. The main thing is the ML picks. So I'm going to start making picks that make absolutely no sense to me. That should turn this thing around.
I will keep a couple of the picks I like every day, and fade the rest. I will also pick a crappy team to fade each day.
The Nats have been winning games like crazy lately. The Braves meanwhile, have just not been able to get it done. I lost on 2 games of theirs when they were in the midst of that 4 game sweep of the Reds. They have Minor on the mound today. This guy has been a nightmare. This was the game I was most primed to fade, but with Strasburg as the 3rd ranked Sagarin pitcher and Minor as the 64th (out of 67 in this category), I just can't fade the Nasty Nats. Laying the road chalk in the hopes that the Braves make it a 6 game losing streak.
Nats ML -125 1.8750 / 1.5
The Rangers kicked my ass yesterday. Toronto has been struggling, but Henderson Alvarez has been a better pitcher than Colby Lewis this year according to the Sagarin ratings. Still, I think the Texas bats prevail. This is a pick I made last night, so this precedes the self-fade decision. Got them mixed with some high favorite tennis plays (playing now) to reduce the juice.
3 team parlay: Rangers ML -175 / WTA Agnieszka Radwanska -440 / Francesca Shiavone -380 1 / 1.4361
Pavano is the 39th best Sagarin pitcher, Scherzer is 53rd. Both are terrible teams with terrible pitchers on the mound today. All indications point to this being an over game. Since the totals have not been to bad to me I'll keep the over pick. But with the Tigers hitting .346 against Pavano, I'd be crazy to take the Twins. I'm better off laying the road chalk with the Tigers rather than depending on the Twins bats. So I'll take the Twinkies.
Twins ML +120 1 / 1.2
Twins / Tigers O8.5 -115 1.15 / 1
I really like the Indians in this spot. Both teams have been playing well, but with the coin toss I feel the value is in the dog. So I'll go against them. I hate paying all that juice though, so I'll take my chances with the RL in the 1st 5. 4.5 runs for the 1st 5 seems a little high as well, so I'll take the U.
CWS 1st 5 RL -.5 1.05 / 1
Indians / CWS 1st 5 U4.5 Even 1 / 1
Team to fade: the Royals. They have lost their last 3 and 7 of their last 10. Forget the pitcher. They suck. Let's hammer this one.
****HAMMER Play**** O's ML -117 2.9250 / 2.5
On a side note, I'd love to fade the Cubs as well, as they have lost their last 10 games. But I just can't do it with Correia on the mound. Plus you have to factor in that Maholm will be looking for blood against his old team.
BOL to all today!! 
0
behind. 
Maybe today's my day!
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