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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Good guys Vs Bad guys
SouthBAYwager send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SouthBAYwager
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#1
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:29:08 PM

From accuscore

The Chicago Cubs are 9-12 at home this season and the Chicago White Sox are 11-9 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer.

 Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Jeff Samardzija has a 51% chance of a QS and Philip Humber a 47% chance. If Jeff Samardzija has a quality start the Cubs has a 66% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.4 and he has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio.

When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cubs win 56%. If Philip Humber has a quality start the White Sox has a 63% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.5 and he has a 29% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the White Sox win 55%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation.

The most productive batter for the Chicago Cubs is Starlin Castro who averaged 1.95 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 31% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cubs have a 62% chance of winning.

The most productive batter for the Chicago White Sox is Paul Konerko who averaged 2.2 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 36% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the White Sox have a 67% chance of winning.

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#2
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:31:19 PM

Makes me lean to the good guys.  It seems that nearly everyone on this forum is on the cubs.  But how can you trust that shitty BP.  Fair enough, the good guys BP sucks too, but it's better than the cubs.  The sox and cubs offense is equal, with the cubs hitting more right now.  Every person in the sox lineup is a threat, vs a few people in the cubs lineup.

I really want to pull the trigger on the sox, but still need more encouragement

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#3
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:41:25 PM

The good guys ML $150

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#4
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:41:57 PM
just a gut feeling.  I think humber will have a superb game, while samardjia get's back to reality
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#5
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:47:08 PM

South I'm on Cubs. If you have a gut feeling about the sox then buddy go with sox. You know and I know nothing is guranteed. One team will win but we do not know who will. If we knew who would win then we would all be playing in + money everyday.

Go with your guts and one of us will win.

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#6
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:49:58 PM

13-10 ytd  lost $1000 yesterday

 

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#7
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:50:30 PM
thanks BetGL.  BOL to you bro
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imma_coogi
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#8
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:52:45 PM
take the under 9 and never sweat
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ShadowWarrior
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#9
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:54:22 PM
Some posters are on a chase system will surely play Cubs again if they lose, or Sox if they lose.  I saw parlays with Sox on and maybe hedge later on in the day if they win.  Both teams are not very reliable to me but if I had to, maybe first five innings Cubs minus a half run at-105.
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#10
Posted: 5/18/2012 2:04:01 PM

I  pulled  the  trigger  on  the  sox too,   samardjiza has  been  very  very  good,  but  I  am  not  completely sold on  huim  and  I  think he has  a little vulnerability against  lefties.   deAza hit  close  to  350 agains right handers and  Dunn is over  300 ,,,  likelwise  Pierzinsky is  300 against  right  handed  pitchers.

As you  suggest,  neither  bullpen will  win any  awards  except a stink competition. 

Humber pitched welll against a  good  hitting  KC  team  last  outing. and he  just  might be  coming  back  to  better  form. whereas  ,  I  am  waiting on the  day  that  samardjiza cant  throw anything but  meat  balls.   I  hope  today  is  that  day.

sox  plus  20

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#11
Posted: 5/18/2012 2:11:28 PM
arch - beautiful....absolutely beautiful
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imma_coogi
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#12
Posted: 5/18/2012 4:21:08 PM

SEE TOLD YALL FELLAS TAKE THE UNDER 9 AND NEVER SWEAT LETS GET MONEY WHOEVER LISTENED

 

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#13
Posted: 5/18/2012 5:37:01 PM

imma- good job, man!

 

Cleveland Hindus ML $400  (POD)

Sixers ML $250

Cardinals ML $250

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#14
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:14:32 PM

The Miami Marlins and the Cleveland Indians will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Progressive Field.
Carlos Zambrano will be the starting pitcher for the Marlins on this day. Righthander Zambrano is 1-2 this season with a 1.88 ERA.
Starting this game for the Indians will be Justin Masterson. The righthander has a 5.40 ERA to go along with a 1-3 record this season.

Current streak:
Cleveland has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Miami: 20-18 SU
Cleveland: 22-16 SU

Miami most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Cleveland are 4-5
After playing Atlanta are 2-8
After a loss are 5-5

Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Miami are 4-5
After playing Seattle are 7-3
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami’s last 17 games on the road
Miami is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Miami is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland’s last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 6 games at home

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Thagrant1
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#15
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:43:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by imma_coogi:

SEE TOLD YALL FELLAS TAKE THE UNDER 9 AND NEVER SWEAT LETS GET MONEY WHOEVER LISTENED

 

Hot Picks and Great Butts! 
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SouthBAYwager send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#16
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:44:49 PM
i agree!
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