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First Inning Runs 5/15

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Captain
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Posted: #1
First Inning Runs picks based on historical outcomes stratified by the full game O/U, the only variable that is highly correlated to the outcome of this prop.

This season 142-98, +60.35 units, last season 180-170, +37.05 units
Current YTD YES%=53.0%

SD/Was NO -150, 1 unit (must bet -161 or better)
CHN/Stl YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -102 or better)
Det/CWS YES +110, 2 units (must bet -105 or better)

Will post later games as lines come out.

GL
 
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Posted: #2
Gl today brotha..get that loot
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
I don't get how the lines I get are more than 30 cents different than the ones you posted. And this is within 10 mins of you posting. They must have moved fast.
 
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Posted: #4
Adding:

Hou/Phi YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)


Quote Originally Posted by FDeezy:

I don't get how the lines I get are more than 30 cents different than the ones you posted. And this is within 10 mins of you posting. They must have moved fast.


I checked 5 dimes just now and all 3 of these have moved, with the Det/CWS line moving 15 cents.

GL
 
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Posted: #5
Adding:

Hou/Phi YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)

GL
 
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Posted: #6
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
FDeezy, what book(s) are you using?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Yeah i got -181 for SD/Wash, -125 for ChiC/Stl, -130 for Det/ChiW all within 10 minutes of your post. I use heritage sports though.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
I used Bet Jamaica but then it transferred me to Heritage Sports a while back
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by FDeezy:

Yeah i got -181 for SD/Wash, -125 for ChiC/Stl, -130 for Det/ChiW all within 10 minutes of your post. I use heritage sports though.


Those lines are brutal for the YES bettor.  If those are 30 cent lines, those lines are so out of whack, you would have some arb opps if you coupled those with 5 dimes lines.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Yeah I check for your YES/NO bets every day and this is the quickest I been able to respond after you posted and they were still that high.
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
I suspect that they are opening that high or close to that high.  Each book is a little different so it really pays to have multiple outs to get the best lines.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
I guess Heritage isn't a good place to place these kind of wagers
 
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Posted: #14
I am in the same boat, except I use a local. My det line is +105 but the other 2 are way off -178 on wash and -115 on the cubbies. 
Moving the markets there brotha...lol 
Thanks for posting yours margins there. Very helpful!

 
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Posted: #15
keep them coming brotha..gl
 
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Posted: #16
Heritage lines are a rip off right now for yes. I guess they're catching on. Yesterday the lines were okay but right now it is horrible
 
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Posted: #17
All plays:

SD/Was NO -150, 1 unit (must bet -161 or better)
CHN/Stl YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -102 or better)
Det/CWS YES +110, 2 units (must bet -105 or better)
Hou/Phi YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)
Oak/LAA YES +115, 3 units (must bet -102 or better)
T/Tor YES +115, 3 units (must bet -102 or better)
NYY/Bal YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -105 or better)
Mil/NYM YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)
Pit/Mia YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)
Cin/Atl YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)
AZ/LA NO -145, 2 units (must bet -161 or better)
Col/SF YES +125, 2 units (must bet +114 or better)

GL
 
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Posted: #18
Good luck totalguy!
 
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Posted: #19
any leans on clev game?
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by TheSituation559:

any leans on clev game?


The Cle/Min game is a straight 50/50 game as the last 386 games that opened with an O/U of 9 are exactly 50/50 YES/NO.  You need at least +101 either way to make it worthwhile.  I couldn't find a good enough line.
 
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Posted: #21
Hey total where do you get your opening lines from? Also do you play any other sports?
 
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Posted: #22
I get them from 5 dimes first thing in the morning.  This is literally the only thing I bet on all year.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by totalguy:



The Cle/Min game is a straight 50/50 game as the last 386 games that opened with an O/U of 9 are exactly 50/50 YES/NO.  You need at least +101 either way to make it worthwhile.  I couldn't find a good enough line.

Thank you for the insight really appreciate it! Man your system does have a lot of stuff backing it up. I like this. I just wish Heritage lines weren't so bad. I got the SD/Nats at -175 
 
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Posted: #24
i had a feeling about that padres/wash game
 
 
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Posted: #25
2-2, +0.7 units on the day games.

GL
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