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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Rockies +118/Arizona -105/Reds -122 Write Ups and Leans.
EastOakland send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 5/12/2012 4:02:47 AM

Rockies are struggling right now on this road trip, but I think they take this one easily. Harrang is so garbage to me and I will bet against him any chance I get. He serves up some real meatballs right over the plate, which the Rockies will feast on. Harang is 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA in his last five starts against the Rockies and he already got lit up earlier this year in the same pitching duel. I dont think anything changes. I watched the game that Harrang pitched against the Cubs and if the Cubs had better hitters they would have blew him out. Sometimes it helps the pitcher when he gets shelled so he can look at video and see what he shouldnt do, too bad Harrang is a straight meat head and he was eating bacon sandwiches instead. This is the Rockies chance to take one here in the middle of this struggle.

Rockies +118

As everyone has noticed I really like betting on Arizona even though their bats are struggling. They came through big tonight for me as home dogs. I agree that Matt Cain is a better pitcher, he is on my fantasy team for a reason, but he always gets screwed over and doesn't pitch as good on the road. You have to go 8 innings of shutout ball to secure a Giants win. Their bats are hibernating and will come out to play once Sandoval and Sanchez get back in the line up. Arizona has the potential to really light up the scoreboard, they just leave a lot of RISP. Last night they should have put way more than 5 on Bumgardner. Arizona has really owned the Giants and I see absolutely nothing telling me that should change. Cain got shelled earlier this year for 5 runs and 2 HR's in Arizona. If he gives up anything near that the Giants are done. Cahill on the other hand has fared well against the Giants and knows all to well about their struggles since he used to play accross the bay. Current Giants are hitting .190 off Cahill, but without Pablo, Huff, and Theriot...current healthy Giants are hitting well below .100. Cahill rarely walks people so they wont get many free passes and he pitches well at home. I think he goes 8 strong innings and makes this Giants line-up look foolish. He has allowed four runs over 27.2 innings while going 3-0 Vs. SF. This could be a really big play for me. Love this spot for the DBacks.

Arizona -105

Latos pitched well in his last outing and I think he will be much more confident against this lowly offense. They scored all the runs they are going score and now it is time to snap back into reality. Latos is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts against the Nationals giving up two earned runs in Washington earlier this year, which was during his slump. Too many holes in the Washington line up to keep up the hitting that we saw today. The Reds will not be shut down again, this offense has way too much talent to be shut down again. I dont think they lose this game. Current Nats are hitting .212 off of Latos, so it should be a challenge for them. Zimmerman shut down the Reds earlier this year, but this team will not be fooled twice. Even with the last outing current Reds are hitting .288 off Zimmerman.

Reds -122

Leans:

Mets

Indians

A's/Tigers Under

 

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#2
Posted: 5/12/2012 4:14:36 AM
like the arizona pick
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#3
Posted: 5/12/2012 4:16:58 AM

Crockie

Love Arizona here.

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#4
Posted: 5/12/2012 5:33:58 AM
GL
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#5
Posted: 5/12/2012 7:49:52 AM
Thanks for your hard work EastOakland.  GL to us buddy!!
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#6
Posted: 5/12/2012 7:50:13 AM
Wow, you are really risking something with COL with the nightcap game.  But your insight does have great reasoning.  BOL to you.

I may take ARI too depending on the day games. 
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#7
Posted: 5/12/2012 8:29:50 AM
Like the picks, but be careful with the statistics.  You say current Giants are batting under .100 against Cahill, but that's only over 29 at-bats.  That's too small a sample size to accurately pull trends off of.  I usually ignore pitcher vs. team stats unless it's at least 75-100 at-bats. That gives you at least 3-4 games worth of data.

GL!
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#8
Posted: 5/12/2012 9:00:21 AM
BOL
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#9
Posted: 5/12/2012 9:26:41 AM
Dude I always check out your thread!

Keep up the good capping, tailed your dbacks
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#10
Posted: 5/12/2012 9:36:09 AM
BOL man 
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#11
Posted: 5/12/2012 10:19:33 AM
Thanks for the write up East, like arz they broke out of a slump against a really good lefty yesterday I hope it continues today vs Cain.
BOL
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#12
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:05:55 AM
Good luck nice call on D-Backs yesterday 
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#13
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:13:54 AM

EastOakland.  BOL

I like Nicasio to get them back on track as well.

Like the Reds and AZ here too but in u8 for AZ game.  Keep up the good work thanks for the write ups

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#14
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:31:14 AM
BOL today EO
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#15
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:55:53 AM
Adding mets and going back to sleep
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#16
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:05:39 PM
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#17
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:20:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dk3:

Like the picks, but be careful with the statistics.  You say current Giants are batting under .100 against Cahill, but that's only over 29 at-bats.  That's too small a sample size to accurately pull trends off of.  I usually ignore pitcher vs. team stats unless it's at least 75-100 at-bats. That gives you at least 3-4 games worth of data.

GL!


BOL East

Your analysis shows some truth dk3.

                   PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Aubrey Huff        18 17 4  0  0  0   0  1  2 .235 .278  .235  .513  0  0   0   0         0
Nate Schierholtz    7  6 0  0  0  0   0  1  2 .000 .143  .000  .143  0  0   0   0         0
Emmanuel Burriss    4  4 1  0  0  0   0  0  1 .250 .250  .250  .500  0  0   0   0         0
Gregor Blanco       3  2 0  0  0  0   0  1  0 .000 .333  .000  .333  0  0   0   0         0
Melky Cabrera       3  2 0  0  0  0   0  1  0 .000 .333  .000  .333  0  0   0   0         0
Brandon Crawford    3  3 0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Buster Posey        3  2 1  1  0  0   0  1  1 .500 .667 1.000 1.667  0  0   0   0         0
Ryan Vogelsong      2  2 0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Total              43 38 6  1  0  0   0  5  8 .158 .256  .184  .440  0  0   0   0         0

And Cahill has not faced Joaquin Arias, Brandon Belt,
Conor Gillaspie, Angel Pagan, Brett Pill and Hector Sanchez.
I had to do some more searching to pull out Pablo and Sandoval since they weren't included in the list before.
                  PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Pablo Sandoval     9  9  3  1  0  0   0  0  1  .333  .333  .444  .778  0  0   0   0         0
                  PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Ryan Theriot       3  3  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  .333  .333  .333  .667  0  0   0   0         0

Still Arizona has had some success against Matt Cain.

                                                                                  
                    PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Ryan Zimmerman      25 22  6  1  0  1   3  2  3  .273  .320  .455  .775  0  1   0   0         0
                     PA  AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Justin Upton         46  39 11  5  0  0   1  7 12 .282 .391  .410  .802  0  0   1   0         0
Miguel Montero       41  37  8  1  0  2   8  4  9 .216 .293  .405  .698  0  0   0   0         0
Gerardo Parra        35  32  7  1  0  0   3  3  3 .219 .286  .250  .536  0  0   1   0         0
Ryan Roberts         24  18  5  1  1  1   4  5  2 .278 .417  .611 1.028  0  1   0   0         0
Aaron Hill           15  13  4  1  1  1   3  0  1 .308 .286  .769 1.055  1  1   0   0         1
Willie Bloomquist    10   9  3  1  0  0   2  1  1 .333 .400  .444  .844  0  0   0   0         0
Paul Goldschmidt     10   8  1  0  0  0   0  2  2 .125 .300  .125  .425  0  0   0   0         0
Lyle Overbay          9   9  4  2  0  1   4  0  1 .444 .444 1.000 1.444  0  0   0   0         0
Henry Blanco          6   6  0  0  0  0   0  0  3 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
John McDonald         6   6  1  0  0  0   0  0  0 .167 .167  .167  .333  0  0   0   0         0
Joe Saunders          4   3  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000  1  0   0   0         0
Ian Kennedy           3   2  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000  .000  .000  1  0   0   0         0
Josh Collmenter       1   0  0  0  0  0   0  0                        0  1  0   0   0         0
Wade Miley            1   1  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Total               211 183 44 12  2  5  25 22 35 .240 .319  .410  .729  4  2   2   0         1


Cain has not faced Jason Kubel, A.J. Pollock and Cody Ransom.


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#18
Posted: 5/12/2012 2:58:23 PM
Playing Arizona and Reds today. GL
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#19
Posted: 5/12/2012 2:59:13 PM
Thats okay, the giants hitters are garbage and it will work against them. I was just throwing the stat out there.
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#20
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:03:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by EastOakland:

Adding mets and going back to sleep

Woke up to a nice little suprise. In my dream the mets were losing....hahaha

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#21
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:06:31 PM

on az too but NO WAY IN HELL do the dbacks own the giants.  look at the numbers from previous years...

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#22
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:08:11 PM
Yo, the DBacks OWN the giants this year I dont give a darn!
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#23
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:10:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dk3:

Like the picks, but be careful with the statistics.  You say current Giants are batting under .100 against Cahill, but that's only over 29 at-bats.  That's too small a sample size to accurately pull trends off of.  I usually ignore pitcher vs. team stats unless it's at least 75-100 at-bats. That gives you at least 3-4 games worth of data.

GL!


I was going to say this too  -  but I think I bring more negative then positive into EastOakland's threads which I really try not too.  Dude is solid with solid write-ups.


But he prefers the D'Backs and is on 'em quite often  -  no problem in that if you consistently hit the team you favor the most.
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#24
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:12:40 PM

Gilmo loves comming in here and starting trouble.

Who likes Seattle....Phil Hughes is garbage and Yanks have never seen Noesi.

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#25
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:18:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EastOakland:

Gilmo loves comming in here and starting trouble.

Who likes Seattle....Phil Hughes is garbage and Yanks have never seen Noesi.





Ah darn you  -  no I don't.  If I disagree I always state why.  And wish you luck.

guy.    
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