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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: Over = 11-5 in Arizona this year. There is a reason for this 68% clip...
oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#1 Posted: 5/11/2012 4:57:14 PM It's very easy to turn on your computer and look at these trends daily and notice things like this with just a quick look up and down any live odds/match-up page. But what many usually fail to do is further any research as to why this may have happened. Since Chris Young's injury the Arizona offense has actually averaged just 3.8rpg which is almost a whole run less per game as they were averaging 4.72rpg with him in the 11 games previous games to April 18th. Arizona is also 7-14 overall since April 18th as a team on the field losing 9 of those games at home. Starting to feel the importance of what Chris Young has meant to his teams success yet? OK now let's talk about those 12 overs that have hit inside of Chase Field. 7 of them were vs better hitting ball clubs= Stl(1x).287ba , Atl(3x).265ba, Phi(3x).257ba. Pittsburgh was the only team thus far to come to Chase Field and cash a couple under's in a 3 game span an we all know were their offense sits. The other 3 overs came in the 1st games of the season vs the same team that the Diamondbacks are facing tonight, the Giants. Except there will be no Pablo Sandoval this time around (5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that 3 game series). If you were wondering Chris Young had 5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that same series. Chris Young's replacement's (Parra & Pollack) have split time in center field since Young's absence are now a combined 33 for 133 (.248ba) 2hr's & 14rbi. A far cry from what Chris Young's 5hr's, 13rbi's and .410ba in just 39ab's. So with all this info now gathered your telling me that we know have the Giants who are only averaging 3.65rpg this season (#23) heading into town minus Kung-Fu and his .315ba and 5hr's & 15rbi's going against the D-Backs minus Young and his production and yet we are still seeing a total set at 9 when the average home set total this season has been 8.71. This is also rather funny that the number on tonight's game is considerably higher than the 3 games these 2 played earlier this season when we seen a 7, 8.5 & 8.5. So we take away Pablo & Young and we get a higher number. To me this is only what the betting market has created as Atlanta, Philly & St Louis kind of drove this number up higher than it should be IMO. Bumgarner is a GB pitcher as his career GB% is 46.5% and this years is even higher at 50.8%. That helps me avoid possible fly balls which tend to catch that Arizona air when the dome is open. It's also great news that Bumgarners opponent for tonight's game is Corbin whom is also been a ground ball heavy pitcher (even higher than Bumgarner) with a GB% of 56.7%. Both of these teams both bat worse vs lefties than they do righties so because of all this i'm going with this below... Ari/SF u9(ev)5u(Bumgarner/Corbin)... SF(-117)3u(Bumgarner/Corbin)... This game reeks of 2-1 or 3-1 with Bumgarner having a big advantage.
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vtn408	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 203 Location:	#2 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:02:17 PM I like the pick very much very much (NOT because I am Giants fan) Under for sure and Giants will win this game! If you look down the road on this series, Giants will win the series Bumgarner: Win Cain: Win Zito: Lose
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#3 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:04:34 PM Here's how I played the rest of my card tonight: MLB 5/11 series wagers(1st 3 games only): LAD(-200)8u to win 4u Hou(+130)3u to win 3.3u Cin(-130)2.6u to win 2u Ari(-110)2.2u to win 2u Mlb 5/11 straight wagers: Phi/SD u8(-115)2u(Worley/Richard) Bos/Cle o10(-110)4u(Buchholz/Jimenez) Hou 1st 5inn RL+0.5(-125)4u(McDonald/Norris) Grand Salami runs scored u125(-110)5u... Just spending a few hours already today I can see many of these games falling short tonight. All set totals add up to 119.5 today & I see strong value in u125(-110). I'm getting an extra 5.5 runs on a day where I expect many unders. FYI...This bet is a "No Listed Pitchers. All Games Must Go 8½ Innings or More"... Cubs(-115)5u(Garza/Wolf)...Garza has been lights out L 2 starts 14inn, 15k, 5h, 4bb, 2er's for a 1.28era. Garza's k/9 is 9.62 on the season with a bb/9 under 3 at 2.67. Put that all together w/ a 93+mph fastball vs a depleted Brewers squad=Value. The Brewers 2-5 since Gamel's injury and have since lost Gomez & Gonzalez. those 3 combined are 52 for 200=.260ba w/ 6hr's, 26rbi's & 9sb's...
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switchwalk	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 4731 Location: Canada	#4 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:05:02 PM Solid write up as always odds BOL tonight
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exshot	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2011 Posts: 550 Location: United States	#5 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:07:37 PM Great write up!!
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Backyardpaina	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2007 Posts: 4388 Location: Hawaii	#6 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:08:43 PM
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bail8gent	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Bodog \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2011 Posts: 1037 Location: Nevada	#7 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:08:45 PM BOL
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#8 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:10:07 PM Updated seasonal record: MLB(rs) Overall=103-89-2 +3.955u... Yest=5-0 +15.2u... L7 days=28-21-1 +4.11u... Parlays=0-1 -1u... MY spring training record was: MLB(st) 52-38 +49.82u...
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hitmanwhitman	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 43 Location:	#9 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:15:00 PM Thank you for such a write up like to parlay arizona under/ red sox over and cubs under
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#10 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vtn408: I like the pick very much very much (NOT because I am Giants fan) Under for sure and Giants will win this game! If you look down the road on this series, Giants will win the series Bumgarner: Win Cain: Win Zito: Lose I think SF is going to lose one of these 1st 2 games. The juice on today's game w/ Bumgarner vs the D-Backs will be less than Cain's tomorrow. Plus I actually think Bumgarner being a GB pitcher give's SF a better chance to win tonight than tomorrow at Chase field. I have Arizone winning the series though...
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#11 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk: Solid write up as always odds BOL tonight TY and BOL...
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#12 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by exshot: Great write up!! TY and BOL!!!
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#13 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:53 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Backyardpaina:
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#14 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:35:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bail8gent: BOL back ay ya... BOL...
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#15 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:35:52 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by hitmanwhitman: Thank you for such a write up like to parlay arizona under/ red sox over and cubs under That's a homerun swing there buddy...BOL...
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Meathook13	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 910 Location: Illinois	#16 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:45:43 PM this is at 9.5 -120 at heritage
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ac_bum	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
MVP Joined: Jun 2011 Posts: 18316 Location: District of Columbia	#17 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:08:03 PM GL TODAY BRO
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Dr_Boilermaker	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2010 Posts: 1587 Location: Nevada	#18 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:10:16 PM Also plaything the under here looking to get it at 9.5
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keepitstrict	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
All-Star Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 11113 Location: Ontario	#19 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:24:51 PM
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#20 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:38:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Meathook13: this is at 9.5 -120 at heritage Yep and you can currently also get u9(+110) at SBG right now. It moved on me after I placed my wager. garbage happens...
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MIKECOUU78	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Aug 2011 Posts: 7471 Location: France	#21 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:47:33 PM Amazing stuff as always Love read your inside. good luck buddy & thank you for your time
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nbafan88	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 26309 Location: New Jersey	#22 Posted: 5/11/2012 6:51:18 PM the roof is open and its 95 degrees you do not play the under, i don't care who's pitching
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oddsbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2006 Posts: 20924 Location: Ohio	#23 Posted: 5/11/2012 7:02:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88: the roof is open and its 95 degrees you do not play the under, i don't care who's pitching Says the recreational junkie who did nothing more than glance at the live odds/math-up page when he/she got home from work... Nothing has changed from your eyes in the last 4+ years I see. Same old bettor just chuggin along...
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nbafan88	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 26309 Location: New Jersey	#24 Posted: 5/11/2012 7:05:59 PM hahah you have no idea wtf you are talking about man but okay playing totals without umps too... very smart
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LanceLogan	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2011 Posts: 4770 Location: British Columbia	#25 Posted: 5/11/2012 7:08:39 PM good luck with yer wagers tonight.
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