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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Over = 11-5 in Arizona this year. There is a reason for this 68% clip...
oddsbuster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 5/11/2012 4:57:14 PM
It's very easy to turn on your computer and look at these trends daily and notice things like this with just a quick look up and down any live odds/match-up page. But what many usually fail to do is further any research as to why this may have happened. Since Chris Young's injury the Arizona offense has actually averaged just 3.8rpg which is almost a whole run less per game as they were averaging 4.72rpg with him in the 11 games previous games to April 18th. Arizona is also 7-14 overall since April 18th as a team on the field losing 9 of those games at home. Starting to feel the importance of what Chris Young has meant to his teams success yet? OK now let's talk about those 12 overs that have hit inside of Chase Field. 7 of them were vs better hitting ball clubs= Stl(1x).287ba , Atl(3x).265ba, Phi(3x).257ba. Pittsburgh was the only team thus far to come to Chase Field and cash a couple under's in a 3 game span an we all know were their offense sits. The other 3 overs came in the 1st games of the season vs the same team that the Diamondbacks are facing tonight, the Giants. Except there will be no Pablo Sandoval this time around (5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that 3 game series). If you were wondering Chris Young had 5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that same series. Chris Young's replacement's (Parra & Pollack) have split time in center field since Young's absence are now a combined 33 for 133 (.248ba) 2hr's & 14rbi. A far cry from what Chris Young's 5hr's, 13rbi's and .410ba in just 39ab's. So with all this info now gathered your telling me that we know have the Giants who are only averaging 3.65rpg this season (#23) heading into town minus Kung-Fu and his .315ba and 5hr's & 15rbi's going against the D-Backs minus Young and his production and yet we are still seeing a total set at 9 when the average home set total this season has been 8.71. This is also rather funny that the number on tonight's game is considerably higher than the 3 games these 2 played earlier this season when we seen a 7, 8.5 & 8.5. So we take away Pablo & Young and we get a higher number. To me this is only what the betting market has created as Atlanta, Philly & St Louis kind of drove this number up higher than it should be IMO. Bumgarner is a GB pitcher as his career GB% is 46.5% and this years is even higher at 50.8%. That helps me avoid possible fly balls which tend to catch that Arizona air when the dome is open. It's also great news that Bumgarners opponent for tonight's game is Corbin whom is also been a ground ball heavy pitcher (even higher than Bumgarner) with a GB% of 56.7%. Both of these teams both bat worse vs lefties than they do righties so because of all this i'm going with this below...

Ari/SF u9(ev)5u(Bumgarner/Corbin)...
SF(-117)3u(Bumgarner/Corbin)...

This game reeks of 2-1 or 3-1 with Bumgarner having a big advantage. 
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#2
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:02:17 PM
I like the pick very much very much (NOT because I am Giants fan)  Under for sure and Giants will win this game!

If you look down the road on this series, Giants will win the series
Bumgarner: Win
Cain: Win
Zito: Lose
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#3
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:04:34 PM
Here's how I played the rest of my card tonight:

MLB 5/11 series wagers(1st 3 games only):

 LAD(-200)8u to win 4u
 Hou(+130)3u to win 3.3u
 Cin(-130)2.6u to win 2u
 Ari(-110)2.2u to win 2u

Mlb 5/11 straight wagers:

Phi/SD u8(-115)2u(Worley/Richard)
Bos/Cle o10(-110)4u(Buchholz/Jimenez)
Hou 1st 5inn RL+0.5(-125)4u(McDonald/Norris)

Grand Salami runs scored u125(-110)5u... Just spending a few hours already today I can see many of these games falling short tonight. All set totals add up to 119.5 today & I see strong value in u125(-110). I'm getting an extra 5.5 runs on a day where I expect many unders. FYI...This bet is a "No Listed Pitchers. All Games Must Go 8½ Innings or More"...

 Cubs(-115)5u(Garza/Wolf)...Garza has been lights out L 2 starts 14inn, 15k, 5h, 4bb, 2er's for a 1.28era. Garza's k/9 is 9.62 on the season with a bb/9 under 3 at 2.67. Put that all together w/ a 93+mph fastball vs a depleted Brewers squad=Value. The Brewers 2-5 since Gamel's injury and have since lost Gomez & Gonzalez. those 3 combined are 52 for 200=.260ba w/ 6hr's, 26rbi's & 9sb's...


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#4
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:05:02 PM
Solid write up as always odds

BOL tonight 

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#5
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:07:37 PM
Great write up!! 
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#6
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:08:43 PM
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#7
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:08:45 PM
BOL 
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#8
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:10:07 PM
Updated seasonal record:



MLB(rs) Overall=103-89-2 +3.955u... Yest=5-0 +15.2u... L7 days=28-21-1 +4.11u... Parlays=0-1 -1u...

MY spring training record was:

MLB(st) 52-38 +49.82u...
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#9
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:15:00 PM

Thank you for such a write up like to parlay arizona under/ red sox over and cubs under

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#10
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vtn408:

I like the pick very much very much (NOT because I am Giants fan)  Under for sure and Giants will win this game!

If you look down the road on this series, Giants will win the series
Bumgarner: Win
Cain: Win
Zito: Lose
I think SF is going to lose one of these 1st 2 games. The juice on today's game w/ Bumgarner vs the D-Backs will be less than Cain's tomorrow. Plus I actually think Bumgarner being a GB pitcher give's SF a better chance to win tonight than tomorrow at Chase field. I have Arizone winning the series though...
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#11
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

Solid write up as always odds

BOL tonight 

TY and BOL...
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#12
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by exshot:

Great write up!! 
TY and BOL!!!
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#13
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:34:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Backyardpaina:

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#14
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:35:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bail8gent:

BOL 
 back ay ya... BOL...
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#15
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:35:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hitmanwhitman:

Thank you for such a write up like to parlay arizona under/ red sox over and cubs under

That's a homerun swing there buddy...BOL...
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#16
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:45:43 PM
this is at 9.5 -120 at heritage
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#17
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:08:03 PM
 GL TODAY BRO
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#18
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:10:16 PM
Also plaything the under here looking to get it at 9.5
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#19
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:24:51 PM
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#20
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:38:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Meathook13:

this is at 9.5 -120 at heritage
Yep and you can currently also get u9(+110) at SBG right now. It moved on me after I placed my wager. garbage happens...
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#21
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:47:33 PM
Amazing stuff as always

Love read your inside.

good luck buddy & thank you for your time
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#22
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:51:18 PM
the roof is open and its 95 degrees

you do not play the under, i don't care who's pitching
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#23
Posted: 5/11/2012 7:02:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nbafan88:

the roof is open and its 95 degrees

you do not play the under, i don't care who's pitching
Says the recreational junkie who did nothing more than glance at the live odds/math-up page when he/she got home from work...

Nothing has changed from your eyes in the last 4+ years I see. Same old bettor just chuggin along...
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#24
Posted: 5/11/2012 7:05:59 PM
hahah you have no idea wtf you are talking about man but okay

playing totals without umps too... very smart
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#25
Posted: 5/11/2012 7:08:39 PM
good luck with yer wagers tonight.
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