May 9 Mariners vs Detroit

Tough matchup for the Mariners tonight, a lefty who has his career off to a fast and furious start.  The League may catch up to Smyly and his lack of horizontal movement next season, and maybe even later this season, but I'm not too convinced the Mariners are the team to do it.

John Jaso starts at Catcher and bats leadoff, a position he some experience with (223 career PA batting #1, 3rd most in the DH era), but tonight Wedge gives Jaso that role versus a tough lefty.  Jaso's strong suit is being a good contact guy vs righty pitchers.  His career split is not so good vs lefty pitchers.

Mariners Lineup
C    Jaso
SS  Ryan
RF  Ichiro
DH  Montero
2B  Seager
1B  Smoak
3B  Liddi
LF  Wells
CF  Figgins

This lineup does not seem to be built to sustain any kind of inning, maybe Montero or Liddi gets hold of one and maybe they'll be a runner on base. 

In very limited at bats, Seager has hit south of .200 vs LHP.  Justin Smoak has been even worse vs LHP, he is south of .100.  Now, throw Figgins, Jaso (vs LHP), and Ryan into a 3 batter sequence, and I don't see too many chances for the Mariners to score, beyond an extra base hit by Montero and/or LIddi, but who other than Ichiro is likely to be on base.  Casper Wells could certainly get on base, but who drives him in ?

All that being said, The tigers pitcher could suck tonight, and all of sudden Figgins et al look like the bronx bombers . . . perhaps, but my money won't be on the prospects of that happening tonight.

Jason Vargas has steadily increased his strikeout rate during his time with the Mariners, which allows him to be more effective.  He has also benefited from a very low BABIP this season (.218 vs career average of .279) and an improved LOB rate, both of which are not likely to be sustained . . . but he also sports a 20% increase in his ground ball rates, which he is somewhat likely to maintain, as a result his xFIP is at a career low of 4.00 this season.

Meanwhile, Smyly has moved rapidly through the Tigers system,  he was one of the guys that could have been part of the Doug Fister trade last season,  if he smokes the Mariners tonight, Jack Z better hope it wasn't the Mariners option to take Chance Ruffin instead of this guy.  He's been a high K guy with a walk rate in the mid 2's in the minors, and he's right there again at the big league level.  His BABIP is a very sustainable .306, but expect his era to climb a bit, no one strands 94% of their base runners for an entire season.

Smyly allowed just 2 minor league HR's in facing 511 batters, MLB hitters have fared better, with 3 of 113 batters taking him deep.

I was thinking of going over 3 runs for Seattle tonite? ..............now I have to think about it!.......

so then what is your money on det or sea?

It stinks of an under tonite. Finally. 

i will likely land on DET ML, DET -1, or DET RL . . . leaning towards ML

I've settled on DET -1 at -111 for 1.05 units

I've maintained all year long that Mariners are fade potential as heavy favorites and playable has big dogs.  Tonight, I feel that Detroit has a substantial advantage.

3825

give us the preview and pick for today .

Hope things are good 3825. It's been a while since a post....