Hurray, Hurray . . .I full expected to be on the under tonight, even at the total of 6.5 . . . but quick look at Verlander's career numbers at Safeco Field has me shying away.
In 7 starts in Seattle, Verlander's team has only one 3 times, with 3 of losses coming at the hands of the horrible 2010 and 2008 Seattle Mariners. Maybe it's a focus issue, I don't know Verlander well enough to know one way or the other.
Millwood might be one of those guys that is "due" for some good luck, curretly, 35.1% of his pitching put in play are finding gaps amongst his defenders. Maybe he is over the hill, but I don't think Wedge would have allowe him to complete Spring Training or make the team if he no longer had MLB caliber pitches.
I hate, I mean really hate the mere thought of backing this team versus Verlander. But I can't really endorse an under play, unless I can project Verlander to be his typical A.L. self tonight, and not his typical "seattle" self tonight.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hurray, Hurray . . .I full expected to be on the under tonight, even at the total of 6.5 . . . but quick look at Verlander's career numbers at Safeco Field has me shying away.
In 7 starts in Seattle, Verlander's team has only one 3 times, with 3 of losses coming at the hands of the horrible 2010 and 2008 Seattle Mariners. Maybe it's a focus issue, I don't know Verlander well enough to know one way or the other.
Millwood might be one of those guys that is "due" for some good luck, curretly, 35.1% of his pitching put in play are finding gaps amongst his defenders. Maybe he is over the hill, but I don't think Wedge would have allowe him to complete Spring Training or make the team if he no longer had MLB caliber pitches.
I hate, I mean really hate the mere thought of backing this team versus Verlander. But I can't really endorse an under play, unless I can project Verlander to be his typical A.L. self tonight, and not his typical "seattle" self tonight.
i didn't check sabermetrics, but this game MUST be 'stay-away' game. once-could-be-ace millwood pitched against tigers 2-3 years ago, nobody can be sure how much he can do. verlander at safeco is quite surprising, but as time goes by his stat returns to normal. def TIGERS or no play, even verlander pitches.
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i didn't check sabermetrics, but this game MUST be 'stay-away' game. once-could-be-ace millwood pitched against tigers 2-3 years ago, nobody can be sure how much he can do. verlander at safeco is quite surprising, but as time goes by his stat returns to normal. def TIGERS or no play, even verlander pitches.
Verlander's stats sheet is an interesting read . . . after winning 17, 18 (twice), and 19 games in the previous 5 seasons, he jumps up to 24 last season . . . his LOB was a career high 80% and he allowed a career low .235 opp BABIP . . . he had been below the MLB average, but not 65 points below. and he's right back there again this season. it's unlikely he sustains that low of rate for the 2012 season. certainly doesn't mean he regresses tonight, but food for thought as the season continues.
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Verlander's stats sheet is an interesting read . . . after winning 17, 18 (twice), and 19 games in the previous 5 seasons, he jumps up to 24 last season . . . his LOB was a career high 80% and he allowed a career low .235 opp BABIP . . . he had been below the MLB average, but not 65 points below. and he's right back there again this season. it's unlikely he sustains that low of rate for the 2012 season. certainly doesn't mean he regresses tonight, but food for thought as the season continues.
In looking at Millwood's K, BB, GB, and BABIP rates this season, and when you throw in his obsurdly low LOB rate of 59%, it's fair to say that is still what he was hired to be . . . a typical number 5 starter. His K rates is now slightly below the MLB average, but his BB and GB rates are at or above the MLB average. add some regression to the mean of his LOB rate, and that ERA will come down.
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In looking at Millwood's K, BB, GB, and BABIP rates this season, and when you throw in his obsurdly low LOB rate of 59%, it's fair to say that is still what he was hired to be . . . a typical number 5 starter. His K rates is now slightly below the MLB average, but his BB and GB rates are at or above the MLB average. add some regression to the mean of his LOB rate, and that ERA will come down.
well, i took 6.5 OVER, and i think this game will be OVERBOUND at any rate thanks to milwood. verlander looks shaky as well, he will allow 2 runs AT LEAST
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well, i took 6.5 OVER, and i think this game will be OVERBOUND at any rate thanks to milwood. verlander looks shaky as well, he will allow 2 runs AT LEAST
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