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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Effective System
joeyd88 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:58:59 AM

Thanks to my vigilent use of Covers.com i came to learn about a MLB underdog system that has an excellent track record and is worth paying attention to, or at least tracking for yourself.  I only learned about it last year and was only able to track it for the first 2.5 months of the season but it was up 40 units in that time and its pretty simple but requires daily involvement.  Im not taking credit for this at all but I thought more of us should know about it, because its not like the books can adjust for a large amount of people betting this way.  Here is the criteria:

Only bet underdogs -  this is a very basic strategy, the worst MLB teams win 40% of game and the best win 60% (100 wins) so underdogs have alot of VALUE.  Going 1 for 2 with two underdogs never yields a net negative result.  Betting favorites is a guaranteed way to lose in the long run.

On a daily basis:

Eliminate all underdogs which are greater than +150 -- so sort all underdogs that are +100, +110, +120, +130, +140 and +150 and then cut them done based on the rest of the systems criteria....

Eliminate any underdog on the 3 game losing streak or facing a team on a 3 game winning streak (or greater)

THen eliminate any underdog remaining that is facing a Top 20 n-ERA pitcher based on Jeff Sagarin's USA Today ratings sheet found at the following link.  This is the top 20 in either the AL or the NL (there are separate lists).  So there are 40 starting pitchers on any given day which you never bet against (and they change daily so you have to check this link every day)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

These 3 criteria usually give you about 4-7 games a day depending on the amount of games played.  When i tracked it, the system give you about 30% of all game played.

Bet the remaining underdogs on an identical unit basis and you will be a winner. I am up 8 units currently betting 28 of the 137 games played, winning 15 (only 53.6% winning).

Please note that the system gains momentum as the season goes on.  And although it has picked 40 games, gone 19 W's and 21 L's and yielded 1.1 units as of today....I eliminated 16 of those 40 games based on "untested underdog pitching starters" and saved myself 7 units in loses (since only 4 of those games won).  Sometimes the system will require your discretion and cant always be used blindly, but all in all the system gives you the best value picks for you to decide which ones to take.

Happy Hunting, Lets get them books

 

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#2
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:08:17 PM
Nice stuff! 
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#3
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:10:36 PM

For instance, today...

ARI @ MIA --J.Saunders vs Zambrano -- Arizona +120

HOU @ CIN - W.Rodriguez vs. M. Leake - HOU +130

NYM @ COL - Schwinden vs. Pomeranz - NYM +150

KC @ MIN - Teaford vs. Pavano - KC +110

 

I eliminated the Mets on this card because Schwinden is unproven and doesnt even make it onto Jeff Sagarins rating sheet yet.  THis type of discretion has proven valuable so far. Saved 7 units

If anyone wants to can send my excel sheets to view last years tracking or see how this year has gone so far.

CHC vs PHI - eliminate because Cubs +240 and facing Halladay (Top 20 n-era pitcher according to Sagarin) on the road

The same goes for PIT vs ATL - eliminate because Pit +160 and facing Tommy Hanson on the road

Eliminate OAK vs BAL -- because Balt has won 4 in a row

 

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air23blc
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#4
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:17:00 PM
Joey just sent you a friend request so that we can PM.
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#5
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:19:21 PM

Not to toot my own horn, but I am going to post on this thread from time to time, occasionally but not always with the days plays (because any one can figure out the plays)

But also to make this thread move to the top of the discussion forum list.  I beleive in it so much that I think it is worthwhile to keep it relevant in the discussion forum so that the most amount of people can see it and read about it. It would be a waste if it was only viewed by the people who were on Covers during the few minutes this post stayed near the top of the list. 

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#6
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:22:21 PM

Accepted it Air23blc, whats PM?

Thanks for the interest.

I also have an NFL system that is nasty if you cut the data the right way.  Ive shared it on good docs before. 

Lets all collaborate... this site is too much of people just dropping dumb picks around and idiots following them.  It should be more knowledge sharing, not just prognostication.  Ive been on here for 10 years now

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#7
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:22:25 PM
...
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#8
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:27:13 PM
Last year a friend of mine saw me winning at capping and wanted to start capping himself. Asked me if I had any systems. Last year I was using a line movement method to finalize my plays and making most of my plays right before game time so I threw him this same system you have posted. I had never used it but had found it on the web and thought it might be an easy one to get him started. Told him I had never used it but it appeared sound. He lost his behind May and June following these plays and gave up his desire to cap. Not saying that it does not or will not work eventually but my friend followed it to the letter for 2 months and got his brains beat out.
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#9
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:28:52 PM

im going for the ride just for fun put $71 on a three team parlay....

houston

kc

arizona    $ 71 pays $652  also flat bet each for $100 lets get it

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#10
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:38:48 PM

its going to be a good ride Kadinky.

Glad to hear you've hear about this Trader 4, it is a simple system to get started.  I also followed it to the letter and have the spread sheet to prove it was up 17 units in April (starting April 10th) and 21 units in may.  I can send it to you.  Im not just bullshitting. I did the system perfectly every single day and its a winner.

Two things:  You have to be careful on the weekends vs. the weekdays.  There are many traps on the weekends because there is so much other action.  But traps usually apply to the books setting the favs much higher than they would during the week and therefore the dogs getting a better pay out than they would otherwise, but it doesnt always work that way.

Second:  if you plan to track it, the system doesnt start until after each rotation has gone through 3 times.  Each starter has started 3 times for each team, about 15 games in or around April 18th this year.  This is because the Sagarin rating needs to have time to accumulate a decent sample size.

I dont want to be doubted that this is a good system, so anyone who wants to see last years 2.5 month spread sheet or this years current tracking, please just request it.  It should be ample proof.

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#11
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:15:34 PM
Maybe it was June and July, not May and June. All I remember is him calling me with negative results and I felt bad for giving the system to him. I do remember him modifying the system a little, if he had a dog and BOTH pitchers were Sagarin top 20 he would use the dog and think it improved his results a little. I never tracked it myself Joey but if you did and it makes $$$ then by all means stick with it. By the way you are on the "house" side with all your plays today and its about time for the house to start winning, books have gotten beat up so far this year in mlb. I know 'cause I track it. Think it's starting to change tho as they have won the last 2 days in a row. 
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#12
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:18:03 PM
Joey I sent you an inbox message with my email address this looks interesting
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#13
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:29:19 PM
I sent that over Air23
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#14
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:31:42 PM
Got em thanks man I am going to try this out selectively 
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#15
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:54:53 PM
good luck cappers.  Pass along the word
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#16
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:11:07 PM
Best of Luck 
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air23blc
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#17
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:13:46 PM
How does the system react if the line opens at + money and then moves to -

This is the case with Kansas city right now
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#18
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:24:09 PM

Yeah thats kinda the trick.... if you havent made the bet when the team is still an underdog then you dont play it.  You only want to play underdogs all year. Keep that Vig in your favor. 

Obviously the line move is a good indication and rarely does a line move from a slight dog to a big favorite, so you can still include it in your plays. But it just wouldnt be part of the system.  Depends how dedicated you are to the system. Do you want to exclusive make picks based on it then you NEVER play a favorite, --(i consider games where its even -110 for both teams to not be part of the system). I know it doesnt make either a favorite or a dog, but you want to avoid the juiice in that case.  a +100 dog is virtually the same bet as a -110 even game in terms of the outcome but you have to win 11 of 21 to break even, as where you have to win 10 of 20 to break even at +100.

I still make other plays (when i think the lines are wrong and there is value, but not very many) but I just dont like laying the juice too often on a team unless the juice seems lower than it should be.

Maybe that helps

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#19
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:28:34 PM

Break-Even Points:

+100 -- 50% winning

+110 -- 47.6% winning

+120 -- 45.5% winning

+130 -- 43.5% winning

+140 -- 41.7% winning

+150 -- 40% winning

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#20
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:30:40 PM
Good luck!!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:59:15 PM

Back to the top of the forum....read up cappers. Win with me and dont give up if todays picks dont pan out.  If you win one, your down less than 1 unit going 1 of 3 and if it were favorites, you be down 2+ units going 1 for 3. 

This is an everyday thing, just like baseball

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#22
Posted: 4/27/2012 3:12:49 PM
BOL Joeyd Im going to track it..I saw this before, but wasn't sure...
I just added you as a friend....so you can send me the spreads hit


BOL today....

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#23
Posted: 4/27/2012 3:13:53 PM
gl and thanks, now just a question I am more of a over under player, is there a system for that.
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#24
Posted: 4/27/2012 3:20:47 PM

i dont have a system for that. But i do love playing unders almost exclusively. Its a pitchers league. Much less homers these days.  I look for the umps, ball park, ERA and bull pen and team batting averages.  THe lines are usually close.  Basically just avoid "high juice" bets (> -120) and you should be fine. Although the totals are split at this time for the year because vegas has adjusted to lasts years mauling they took, but theres still value. Some teams just cant score.  And the pitcher batting in the NL is already taken into account on the lines so be careful there.

Zizzou, im not sure what you mean by send you the spreads.  Is there a way i can send you the excel documents that have captured the systems records. lmk

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#25
Posted: 4/27/2012 3:25:24 PM
Joeyd, can u send me that spreadsheet as well, now that basketball season is over I need something to keep me busy.  Am very interested in checking out the system.

Thanks

BOL
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