Two home dog plays, as you know I love love love home dogs in baseball. There is a lot of value in both of these plays because both pitchers are good and better at home. Lets start with the yanks.
Ivan Nova has faced the Tigers 3 times, twice in relief. Once where he went two innings strong and once where he wasnt so strong. He did start one game in the playoffs last year and won the game giving up 2 earned runs and 4 hits in 6.1 IP. He is much more confident and comfortable now in his third year. At the end of the day he pitches good enough to get wins and I think he keeps his streak alive here at home in a big rematch from last years playoffs. Nova challenges players a lot, which will be good because detroit just got swept by the mariners and their offense has been really struggling.
Although the Yankees havent figured Verlander out, they have faced him enough to know what his game plan is. They have almost 200 at bats vs the guy and the yankees always figure out pitcher no matter how good they are. The game where verlander went 8 strong and gave up 4 earned runs in the playoffs means very little here because if he gives up 4 runs, the game is over. Tigers will not score 4 runs against nova. Both games he pitched last year against the yankees were No Decisions but they lost the games and he only gave up 3 runs in each. He had a 4.50 ERA during the regular season. The yankees are very familiar with this guy and with the way their offense has been really clicking...I see them getting a win here.
Yankees +114 
Now, on to the Indians and Masterson.
Masterson hasnt won a game this year but that is because the Indians bullpen couldnt be any worse. He has posted a 2.77 ERA two starts at home. Masterson is 2-0 with a 1.39 ERA in five career starts versus Los Angeles. Masterson is a good pitcher and was 5-0 last year in April...this is a huge game for him. I really like the kid and I think he pitches a gem 2morrow vs a struggling offense. Im sure people will be banking on the low line, weaver pitching, and LAA cant lose another game. Horrible way to gamble...Indians could have a much better record if their bullpen didnt blow so many saves this year.
Weaver has had the Indians number he is 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA in six starts at Progressive Field. But that doesnt mean he will be 5-0...his team is struggling and a couple runs could really end the game if Masterson pitches the way I think he will. I think this Indian team has heart and really believes they can do something this year...and they are not going to let Weaver come to their home and take another one from them. Angels comming off an embarrasing sweep and traveling all the way from Florida to Ohio and playing in a cold atmosphere will not feel good at all. This is the game where Weaver finally loses one at Progressive. I also really like how 83% is on the angels who havent proven SHIT this year, but the line keeps moving in their favor. Huge sharp play on the Indians Ace here. Great value in this pick....
Indians +125
Leans:
Washington +1.5...Value here.
Baltimore
CHI Sox. They will not lose another one to this lowly boston team.
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