Posted:
#1
Sides: 0-0, +0.00
Totals: 0-0, +0.00
Leans: 0-0
I knew when Buehrle signed with the Marlins, there would be some automatic spot plays right away for me as Ozzie even alluded to it in one of his pre-season press conferences when they brought Buehrle in. He’s been dominant against National League teams, as he’s gone 16-2 with a 2.29 ERA the past seven years in Interleague play. He’s a fast pitcher, throws a pitch, and gets right back on the mound to throw another. He had a not-so great spring, but I don’t put a ton of emphasis on spring training. I think rather than focus on him getting the win here, I’m going to play the spot with the under. Cueto’s proven to be a much better pitcher at home than on the road (had a ERA of a full point less at home last year). And Miami’s in a tough rebound spot here. They just took part in all the opening day festivities, and hit the road last night to show up for the day game today. Not only the spot, but the weather isn’t all that Miami type of weather here either. Think the under holds value here.
Going to take a stab at some value here with the Indians. They opened up last year with a 14-2 record at home, and just not sure they deserve to be an underdog here. The Blue Jays had a really good spring, again, I don’t put much emphasis on the spring. Romero has thrown twice against the Tribe a few years ago and split those games (lost 2-1, won 8-5, and won 10-6 the prior year). Just not sure Toronto’s offense can handle the sinkerballer in Masterson, and in a total as low as this one, the value is justified on the pup. Focusing on the spot, you have a home run hitting team against a sinker-ball. As long as Masterson can keep the ball down, then that facet is taken away here. All in all, and what a big part of my baseball stuff is all about is, does the play hold value? In this case, I think so. This was a Cleveland team that won a ton of games prior to the injury bug last year, and now have the best pitcher on the staff making his first career opening day start.
As long as the wind isn’t blowing out, I’m not sure how the Cubs score on Strasburg. Yes, he’s coming off an injury. Yes, he’s probably on a short pitch count. On the other side of the hill, Dempster’s been awful on opening day, and this Cubs offense isn’t all that great to begin with, so while the price is a bit steep, I still think it holds a bit of value. I don’t have all of that strong of feeling for the National offense either against a sinker-baller in Dempster, so I think this is one of those spots that just comes down to pitching. Again, steep, but a bit of value.
5* Marlins/Reds Under 8
2* Indians +115
1* Nationals -150
Lean: Mets -102
Lean: Redsox/Tigers Under 7
Lean: Phillies/Pirates Over 6.5
GL
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gl.
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