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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: March 29 Mariners vs Oakland in Tokyo
3825 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 3/28/2012 7:46:19 PM
in hindsight, under 7.0 seemed like a no-brainer.  Backing the mariners took more effort last night, and in reality, backing the mariners might not have been the play in the long run at those prices.  certainly, it's only one regular season game, but the mariners offense has not looked good in japan.

moving forward, i think you must demand a compelling reason to back a mariners over.  i will need much more than a hunch to back that outcome.
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#2
Posted: 3/28/2012 7:49:58 PM
west coast folks . . . game time is when the bars close, 2am
east folks . . . set the alarms for an hour earlier, 5am first pitch

game is on directv 687 and MLB network.
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#3
Posted: 3/28/2012 10:44:47 PM
Always enjoy reading your posts about the mariners. GL this season.



Also you can thank my buddy Andrew Carignan for the win this morning.
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#4
Posted: 3/28/2012 10:51:17 PM
In looking at Vargas, i can't see much of a reason to think he'll be any different than what we saw last season.  He's capable of shutting down the other team, as he did 4 times last season when he went 9 innings without allowing a run.  But his record, and the mariners record in his starts will likely depend more on his run support.  a bad mariners team won 15 of his 32 starts last season, so that tells you that he will keep his team in the game.  he faced the A's 5 times last season, allowing a very good .218 opp avg, with an era under 4.00, but the mariners only won 2 of those 5 starts.

in looking at vargas, i can't make a compelling argument to avoid the under 8.5 tonight.
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#5
Posted: 3/28/2012 11:45:29 PM
Bartolo Colon is an interesting read, he posted his best K rate since 2001 last season.  throw in a FIP of 3.83, which ranks among the best in his career, and you've got a guy who really benefited from modern medicine.

i know nothing of Colon this spring, but looking at last season, it's tough to project him as "washed up" at the ripe of 38.

on possible area of concern is how he finished last season, after posted opp averages of .237, .232, .186 in the first three months of the 2011 campaign, he went .307, .282, .312 in the final three months, as the Yankees only won 6 of his final 15 starts.
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#6
Posted: 3/28/2012 11:59:18 PM
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#7
Posted: 3/29/2012 12:10:33 AM
3825...Bol
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 3/29/2012 12:18:22 AM
good read but cant determine what ur plays is! haha GL whatever it is!
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#9
Posted: 3/29/2012 12:45:17 AM
no plays yet, i take my time.

even if colon is bad, i'm not convinced the mariners offense will be able to exploit him . . . and in general, i think it's fair to project vargas as having a good outing
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#10
Posted: 3/29/2012 12:52:21 AM
i'm also humored by those that draw conclusions from colon's career body of work vs the mariners, and think that indicates something for tonight's game. 

that would be like me looking at his first three career starts vs the mariners and drawing the conclusion that colon will struggle tonight.
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#11
Posted: 3/29/2012 1:11:31 AM
Mariners Lineup
LF  Figgins 
2B  Ackley
RF  Ichiro
1B  Smoak
DH  Montero
3B  Seagar
C   Olivo
CF  Saunders
SS  Ryan

SP  Vargas
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#12
Posted: 3/29/2012 1:14:32 AM
Oakland Lineups
2B  Weeks
SS  Pennington
LF  Crisp
DH  Gomes
C   Suzuki
CF  Cespedes
RF  Reddick
3B  Donaldson
1B  Ka aihue

SP Colon
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#13
Posted: 3/29/2012 2:12:52 AM
Why is crisp batting 3rd?

no good.

Gotta be Crisp, week.Cespedes
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#14
Posted: 3/29/2012 2:40:06 AM
pretty big swing in the price of the under, i liked it at +103, not as sold if I have to pay an extra 17 cents for the pleasure to see less than 9 runs.
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#15
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:02:08 AM
IMO that line is set at that total for a reason.  Easy $$$ on under?  I don't think so.  I'm not betting the game personally as I like to watch a couple of weeks or so of reg season to see how the guys gel together.  My lean would be A's and over just based on the line itself.

BOL
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#16
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:03:32 AM
Where the hell is Matsui? Is he hurt? He has three homers in 25 at bats versus Vargas.
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#17
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:05:42 AM
matsui doesn't play for any MLB team.
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#18
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:06:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TDHCentral:

IMO that line is set at that total for a reason.  Easy $$$ on under?  I don't think so.  I'm not betting the game personally as I like to watch a couple of weeks or so of reg season to see how the guys gel together.  My lean would be A's and over just based on the line itself.

BOL


well then, what do we make of the line when it was at +103 ?
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#19
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:16:50 AM
so what's the play.. under??
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#20
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:17:55 AM
Not sure sir other than Vegas is wanting that under $$$ at the juiced price, IMO.   I know you are more experienced with the M's for sure ( I remember reading your posts for at least 2 season now or more).  I just think it seems too easy to hit that under. (and maybe it is), but I have a hard time betting this early in the season, esp when the series is in Japan.  I think we all know M's unders have been $$$$ for years which is why this line has me...emmm...squeemish.
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#21
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:20:14 AM
hoping the Ms start off on fire like last season
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#22
Posted: 3/29/2012 4:26:31 AM
supply and demand controls these prices.
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#23
Posted: 3/29/2012 4:29:21 AM
and i don't demand under 8.5 at -114 enough to supply myself with it
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#24
Posted: 3/29/2012 4:32:45 AM
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#25
Posted: 3/29/2012 4:32:54 AM
Carp to the DL, this makes this team even weaker vs RHP
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