5 Inning Discussion Thread, Thursday 10-6-11

Question

Probably be back later, anybody ready?

KeyElement · Answer

Probably be back later, anybody ready?

Cao75 · Answer

just lean TT under 5. 1st 5inn.&#xD;&#xA;be back later !!

backdooor_cover · Answer

I think this is a no brainer.  Yankees.  It&#x27;s just a matter of if you want to take the risk and lay the juice.  Me personally I will be laying the high juice today

1lowimpala · Answer

Yankees -150 first five, I think is money!BOL

JEG53 · Answer

Which Fister shows uo,the one that pitch for Seattle or the one that won 10 games for Det.?After getting him from Seattle he was a big part of season ending run to winning Div..
But in make up game he was the pitcher from Seattle,which one shows up today?
Yankee line keeps going up,so we know who the betting world thinks,I dont think I can put any money on Det.in 9,but a small play in 5 just in case he can pitch tonight,thought about the under but if he blows up again,so took the big juice.

KeyElement · Answer

71% of the betting world thinks it is a no brainer, but the rest of us realize the line was too high in the first place and that is why it has not crawled up very much. My personal max on the Yankees, who should be favored and should win, is -142, because I compute a 58.8% probability, which seems about right.

The total is a toughy too, with 9 looking just a half run too high, but that is to be expected in a balls to the wall, all out effort. Under 5 for the first 5 may be the way to go as starting pitchers have performed very well so far in the playoffs and only 51% of the scoring has occurred the first 5 innings in the 16 games played to date. Unfortunately, sharps hit the under 5 to bring the juice to -125 and with totals that gets into some dangerous territory.

All that being said, I am watching again as a fan and student of the game. No plays, the league Championship Series may offer better.
BOL

backdooor_cover · Answer

A wise man once told me, "Don&#x27;t ever bet with your heart." which is the case here for me.  You must throw out all probabilities and theories in this one and go with the one that makes the most sense.  Line is high in an attempt to get some Detroit money here.

KeyElement · Answer

Of course the attempt is to get some Detroit money, that&#x27;s obvious with 71% of the bettors following their hearts and instincts, but it really has no effect on probability at all. Based on some late adjustments I can raise the Yankees to a maximum of -155, which ain&#x27;t bad with the current 5 inning line at -157, but it still leaves no room for error so I am still not playing. One thing I will guarantee, though. If the Tigers win don&#x27;t come back on line unless you want to read a ton of "FIX" complaints. That&#x27;s just par for the course for Covers, lol.BOL

thejaguar007 · Answer

i like the over cause of the true fact that this is a game of hitting .... pitching will be important but these two teams have review all the scouting they can get, it is the last game. I see this as one of those D-backs/Brewers game of hitting the last few games for them.

backdooor_cover · Answer

If Yankees lose it will be fixed

backdooor_cover · Answer

I am not calling a fix but watching the zone they put on tv and where the umpire is calling balls and strikes he is not being consistant on both sides. Pitches Detroit is getting balls and being call strikes against the yankees.

timdogs17 · Answer

Key, I must say that you are (1) of the most accurate members on this site! You know your stuff and I love reading your thoughts! I just wanted too say. , thank you

KeyElement · Answer

Horseshit, it doesn&#x27;t get any better than Ted Barrett, eat the loss.timdogs17, T.Y.

5 Inning Discussion Thread, Thursday 10-6-11

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